【正文】 187。 ? More better data, usually made during the Planning phase ? Other Names: Appropriation, Control, and Design ? 確定估算 Definitive Estimate: ? 5% to 10%。 using actual costs from previous project as basis for estimate ? Reliable when previous projects are similar and individuals have expertise – form of expert judgment ? 參數(shù)模型 Parametric Modeling – uses project characteristics in mathematical models to predict costs ( houses) ? Reliable when historical information is accurate, parameters are quantifiable, and model is scalable 2 types: Regression analysis, Learning Curve ? 從下至上的估算 Bottom Up Estimating – rolling up individual activities into project total – smaller work activities have more accuracy ? 計(jì)算機(jī)工具 Computerized tools – spreadsheets, software 估算的準(zhǔn)確性 (Accuracy of Estimates） ? 量級(jí)估算 Order of Magnitude Estimate: ? 25% to 75%。（ Resources reallocated from noncritical to critical activities to bring the schedule back， or as close as possible to its originally intended overall duration.） Extend hours, weekends, multiple shifts. Increase productivity by using different technologies and machinery. 啟發(fā)式資源平衡法 PMBOK Resource Leveling Heuristics 啟發(fā)式資源平衡法 PMBOK Resource Leveling Heuristics 資源逆向分配 （ Reverse resource allocation scheduling） : 有限或關(guān)鍵資源（ Finite and critical resource). 從項(xiàng)目結(jié)束時(shí)間逆推進(jìn)度（ Scheduled backwards from ending date） 關(guān)鍵路徑資源計(jì)劃 Critical Chain resource Planning: A technique modifies the schedule to account for limited resources. Question: Add more people on a task can increase or decrease the productivity? 進(jìn)度更新 Schedule Updates PMBOK 更新 Update: Modification to schedule May or May Not require to adjustments to other aspects of project Plan. 修訂 Revision: Special category of Update. Change to the start and finish dates in approved project schedule. Generally in response to the scope changes or changes to estimate. 重新確定基線 Rebaselining: While schedule severe delay, the original performance measurement baseline not applicable Be careful, since the historical data will be lost. 成本管理 （ Cost Management） What’s cost management? Including: Initiate the project Estimating Organizing Controlling Analyzing Reporting Forecasting Taking necessary corrective action when required. 關(guān)于成本管理的問題 成本管理的目的？ 確保在批準(zhǔn)的預(yù)算內(nèi)完成項(xiàng)目的各個(gè)過程。 Allocate scare resources to the Critical Path Activities first. 通常導(dǎo)致比最初進(jìn)度更長(zhǎng)的工期。 通常風(fēng)險(xiǎn)增加。 通常成本增加。（ cost and schedule tradeoff）。 例如：蓋樓的每一層、醫(yī)藥臨床等。 網(wǎng)絡(luò)的一部分稱為：子網(wǎng)絡(luò)。 Conditional and probabilistic treatment System Dynamics Models：系統(tǒng)動(dòng)態(tài)模型 工期 =7 Task A ES EF LS LF 工期 =6 Task C ES EF LS LF 工期 =3 Task G ES EF LS LF 工期 =3 Task B ES EF LS LF 工期 =3 Task D ES EF LS LF 工期 =2 Task F ES EF LS LF 工期 =3 Task E ES EF LS LF 工期 =2 Task H ES EF LS LF 開始 結(jié)束 計(jì)算 子網(wǎng)絡(luò) Sub Nets – Frags PMBOK 網(wǎng)絡(luò)模板（ Network templates） 使制圖過程更便捷。 ) Total Float = Early finish – Late finish (不影響項(xiàng)目完工日期。 ? Discretionary 任意 ? Best practice ? 軟邏輯 Soft Logic: desirable and customary (based on experience) ? 優(yōu)先 Preferential: preferred or mandated by a customer (also, need of the project sponsor) ? External ? Project activity with nonproject activity. 前導(dǎo)圖法 PMBOK Precedence Diagramming Method AON (Activity on Node): Node=activity, Arrow=dependencies One time estimate Lead and Lag Four relationships: Finish to Start Finish to Finish Start to Start Start to Finish TASK1 TASK2 TASK1 TASK2 TASK1 TASK2 TASK1 TASK2 ES EF LS LF ES EF LS LF 箭線圖法 PMBOK Arrow Diagramming Method AOA (Activity on Arrow)： 雙代號(hào)網(wǎng)絡(luò)圖，活動(dòng)在箭線上。 WBS更新（ ）。 WBS的延伸。 范圍核實(shí)：關(guān)心工作結(jié)果的“接受 Acceptance” 質(zhì)量控制：關(guān)心工作結(jié)果的“正確性 Correctness” Inspection= Review, product reviews, audits, walkthrough 變更申請(qǐng) Change Request PMBOK 多種形式： oral/written, direct/indirect, externally/internally initiated, legal/optional 但是，必須是正式的（ Formal） 引起變更申請(qǐng)的原因： 1. 外部事件 2. 定義 Product scope 時(shí)的錯(cuò)誤或遺漏（ error/omission） 3. 定義 Project scope 時(shí)的錯(cuò)誤或遺漏（ error/omission） 4. Valueadding change (尤其在 Optional時(shí) ) 5. Risk?contingency plan or workaround plan.() Activity Definition 活動(dòng)定義 PMBOK 分解 (Deposition )：將工作包細(xì)分為：更小、更易于管理的活動(dòng)（ Activity）。 項(xiàng)目提前終止，則應(yīng)對(duì)項(xiàng)目完成程度建立文檔。 范圍核實(shí) Scope Verification PMBOK 是項(xiàng)目干系人正式接受（ Formal Acceptance）項(xiàng)目的過程。 BOM (Bill of Material)：材料清單 制造產(chǎn)品所需零部件等的分級(jí)層次。 OBS(Organization breakdown structure)：組織分解結(jié)構(gòu) 顯示工作被分配到組織單元。 a basis for tradeoffs. Project’s product – product description() Project deliverables – a list of summary level Subproducts. Project objectives – quantifiable criteria to measure success at least: Cost Schedule Quality SMART Objective Involves subdividing the major project deliverables or subdeliverables ?smaller ?more manageable units Until sufficient detailed defined deliverables to Support developing Activity. 分解 Deposition PMBOK Step 1: 識(shí)別主要可交付成果 Identify major deliverables Step 2: Decide if adequate cost and duration estimate can be developed Step 3: Identify constituent ponents (組成元素 ) Step 4: Verify the correctness 工作分解結(jié)構(gòu) WBS PMBOK 面向可交付成果而對(duì)項(xiàng)目元素的分組，它組織并定義了整個(gè)項(xiàng)目范圍。 最遲不得晚于 Execution. Preferable早于項(xiàng)目計(jì)劃編制完成前。 項(xiàng)目選擇方法 PMBOK Project Selection Method 方法： 1. 效益測(cè)量法（ Benefit measurement methods） Economic Model, scoring model,… 2. 約束優(yōu)化法（ Constrained optimization methods) Mathematical Model,… 決策模型 Decision Model: General Techniques(decision trees, forced choice…) Specific Techniques(Analytic Hierarchy Process, Logical Framework Analysis,…) Apply plex project selection criteria in a Sophisticated mode?separate project phase (Feasibility Study phase) Decision Model 贏利能力的計(jì)算（ Profitability Calculation）