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ated Ties To Realtime Report . October 1st 2020. IMF Sees Yuan As Undervalued Despite China39。if39。s little question that the yuan39。t happen. The . trade deficit with China shrank 15% in 2020, while the deficit with all other nations besides China halved. In other words, even with a pricier yuan, recessionbattered America cut spending on goods from the rest of the world by more than three times as much as it cut spending on Chinese goods. The improvement in the . trade balance in 2020 was far more likely due to the global recession than a lag effect of China39。s stronger value were the culprit, one might expect the . trade deficit with China to have contracted more than America39。s overall trade surplus in 2020 narrowed by a third. Yuan hawks acknowledge that the global downturn played a role in that slump. But they argue that the skinnier surplus also reflected, in significant part, the delayed impact of the yuan39。s overall global trade surplus grew even faster. It totaled $295 billion for 2020, almost triple the $102 billion for 2020. It was after the yuan stopped rising that China39。s trade surplus with the . , grew substantially. In the first six months of 2020, before the appreciation ended, China39。s value and China39。s export sector. China cannot afford a big rise in the yuan, Premier Wen Jiabao said in a speechin the . earlier this month, arguing that 20% to 40% jump in the yuan39。s government rejects such arguments, saying the exchange rate plays little role in the bilateral balance of trade with the . But Chinese officials also warn that a big jump in the yuan39。 China to let the yuan rise around 20% to 25% over the next two to three years. This would reduce China39。s currency policy, argues that the . should seek to 39。s trade deficit with China by making Chinese exports so much cheaper in dollar terms that rivals can39。s trade gap with the . Does history back them up? Supporters of the bill that passed the House on Wednesday argue that Beijing39。s currency policy in Washington argue that a jump in the yuan39。 貝克 . IMF:人民幣匯率被低估 .華爾街日報 . 2020 年 7月 27 日 . 1 The Yuan39。 文獻來源: 鮑伯 經(jīng)濟學(xué)家們說,這樣的言論或許意味著,如果央行覺察有通脹風(fēng)險,它愿意讓人民幣進一步升值。對任何央行行長來說,這都是一個熟悉的領(lǐng)域,不過胡曉煉引用了主張自由市場的傳奇式經(jīng)濟學(xué)家弗里德曼的話 ── 通貨膨脹是一種危險的有時甚至?xí)旅募膊。M而使得論戰(zhàn)升溫。 ” 另外一位熟悉評估的人士說,報告的結(jié)果與草案并沒有太大的變化。數(shù)位人士說,在中國經(jīng)常項目這一問題上,巴西基本上支持中國的立場。不過,國際貨幣基金組織預(yù)測,經(jīng)常項目盈余的變化只是暫時的, 4 月份它也做出過同樣的判定。 康乃爾大學(xué)經(jīng)濟學(xué)家、前國際貨幣基金組織中國部負責(zé)人普拉薩德說,他看過的一份國際貨幣基金組織工作人員報告草案對北京方面讓人民幣匯率浮動的決定表示了肯定。國際貨幣基金組織最大的股東 — 美國和歐洲 — 抱怨說,這一政策給了中國出口商不公平的優(yōu)勢。 由于中國與國際貨幣基金組織在人民幣與美元掛鉤的政策上爭執(zhí)不休,自2020 年以來中國一直沒有允許國際貨幣基金組織對中國經(jīng)濟進行年度評估。 國際貨幣基金組織成員有資格阻撓該組織評估報告的出版,不過多數(shù)國家允許出版。一個風(fēng)向標是,未來幾周中國是否將阻撓國際貨幣基金組織出版周一決定的更詳細的總結(jié)?;ㄆ旒瘓F經(jīng)濟學(xué)家彭星表示,這種公開聲明非常少