金融學(xué)專業(yè)外文翻譯----股票市場經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的行為方式-金融財(cái)政-文庫吧資料
2025-01-27 01:31本頁面
【正文】 nks, firms and households. The argument may go like this. An increase in wealth through the appreciation of stocks increases spending directly since people feel wealthier. At the same time the appreciation of stocks increases the collateral for borrowing by firms and households. Credit may expand and thus spending is likely to increase. A depreciation of stocks lets spending decrease and devaluates the collateral and credit contractions followed by large output loss may occur. Thus, large stock price swings can easily be seen to impact economic activity. Often Tobin’s Q is employed to study this impact of stock market appreciation or depreciation on firm investment. Of course, other financial variables such as interest rates, interest rate spreads, the term structure of the interest rates and credit constraints, as discussed in Chaps. They are also important for household and firm spending. Thus, beside the real variables, asset prices and financial variables are also important for economic activity and, moreover, have often been good predictors for turning points in economic activity and business cycles. 2 On the other hand, another important line of research is to show how real activity affects asset prices and returns. Often, proxies for economic fundamentals are employed to show that fundamentals drive stock prices and returns. The two main important variables for stock prices are the expected cash flows (and dividend payments) of firms and discount rates. Both are supposed to determine asset prices in a fundamental way. Empirical researchers have used numerous macroeconomic variables as proxies for news on expected returns, future cash flows and discount rates. In addition variables with leads and lags are studied for their impact on asset pricing and returns. In general, econometric literature has shown that good predictors of stock prices and returns have proved to be dividends, earnings and growth rate of real output Moreover, financial variables such as interest rate spread and the term structure of interest rates have also been significant in predicting stock prices and stock returns . Other balance sheet variables, such as firms’ leverage ratio, worth and liquidity have also successfully been employed Presently discussed approaches in the empirical literature have primarily stressed either of the above mentioned two strands of research. Subsequently we will present some approaches, the relevant stylized facts for those approaches and some empirical results of the studies. Thereafter,we will presentmodels that deal with the interaction of macroeconomic fact
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