【正文】 What They Say ? GM expects markets to grow around the world and their market share to grow in every region. ? Ford expects profits to decline in North America. They were not specific but suggest cost issues lingering. ? GM expects European profits to grow by $300400mm($500$700mm pretax) in 2023, while Ford expects profits to grow by $9001,000mm. It is unclear how this profit growth can occur given the difficult market conditions there. DaimlerChrysler ? Product line has been playing defense for some time. Offense needs to get on the field. ? Chrysler faces perceived quality problems. ? Mercedes has actual quality problems. ? Affiliate issues may loom large in 2023. ? Commercial truck business at DCX could be a positive source of earnings for the pany in 2023. DCX Market Share 11%13%15%17%90 CY 93 CY 96 CY 99 CY 02 CY% % % Source: Autodata Man Stanley Research 2 3 . 9 %7 6 . 1 %0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%F Y 0 2DCX Car Lt. Truck Sales As A % of Parent Cars Light Trucks Source: Autodata Man Stanley Research Chrysler DCX Operating Margins Source: Company reports Man Stanley Research 4. 0%2. 0%0. 0%2. 0%4. 0%6. 0%8. 0%10. 0%1999 2023 2023 2023 2023E 2023EChry s l e r T o t a l D CXDCX New / Replacement / Redesigned Products Source: Company Data, Ward’s Automotive Man Stanley Research B r an d P r o d u c t I n tr o D ateCh r y s l e r P a c i f i c a M a r 03Ch r y s l e r Cr o s s f i r e J un 03D o dge D ur a n go N o v 03Ch r y s l e r 300C A pr 04D o dge M a gn um M a y 04J e e p G r a n d Ch e r o ke e N o v 04M e r c e de s M Cl a s s 2023M e r c e de s G S T 2023Implications ? GM will continue to pursue its “grow our way out” strategy. ? DCX improved cost structure is keeping it in the game. New product is critical to alleviating revenue pressure. ? Foreign OEMs are likely to continue to add capacity in NA. ? Ford likely to be playing defense for one more year. The pany needs to hang on and continue to attack their costs until new product arrives. ? On the bright side, the Big Three product is the best its ever been. Source: Man Stanley Research Suppliers’ Relative Stock Performance: 2023 Source: FactSet Man Stanley Research S U PG P CGTD P HDRRAC TBM G AJC IARMVCDCNBWAA X LLEA40. 0% 20. 0% 0. 0% 20. 0% 40. 0% 60. 0%Dealers’ Relative Stock Performance: 2023 Source: FactSet Man Stanley Research 0. 0% 20. 0% 40. 0% 60. 0% 80. 0% 100. 0% 120. 0%UAGLA DG P IANExpectations: Year Ago vs. Today Source: Man Stanley Research 2023 2023M S S a l e s E s t (m m un i t s ) 15 . 9 16 . 8P / E o n M S E s t s 9. 5x 10 . 5xE V / E B IT D A o n M S E s t s 4. 8x 5. 0x 。 St re n g t h a t 1 0 9 ?p e r U S$Yen to US Dollar Price Sensitivity: YTD 03 Source: Company Data Man Stanley Research Note: * Includes Acura, Infiniti, Lexus Y TD 03 I m p % D o m % O EM * I m p o r t D o m e s ti c O EM To tal o f To tal o f To talT o y o t a 629, 547 935, 619 1, 565, 166 40% 60%H o n da 271, 004 880, 637 1, 151, 641 24% 76%N i s s a n 235, 201 428, 380 663, 581 35% 65%Y TD 03 I m p o r t D o m e s ti c We i gh te d A v g B as e d o n Ev e r y 1 ?O EM * ? C o n te n t ? C o n te n t ? C o n te n t 20230 M o v e Eq u al sT o y o t a 100% 24% 55% $10, 914 $93H o n da 100% 3% 26% $5, 165 $44N i s s a n 100% 20% 48% $9, 671 $82Weaker Dollar Could Help a Little Source: Man Stanley Research C o r r e l a ti o n s Ye n / $ v s . C PI N e w C a rT i m e F ra m e C o rre l a t i o nJa n 8 1 t h ro u g h Ma y9 5 9 1 . 1 %Ju n 9 5 t h ro u g h O ct 0 3 2 . 8 %Global Operating Margins FY02 Source: Company data Man Stanley Research *Man Stanley Estimates Excluding Pension OPEB Expense for the Big Three Porsche Nissan BMW Honda Toyota Hyundai GM Peugeot Kia VW DCX Renault Ford Fiat % % % % % % % % % % % % % % Higher Rates Could be a Negative Higher rates create risk of weaker demand, weaker mix and lower finance pany earnings ? Extended terms suggest longer replacement rates. ? Every 1% increase in financing rates on 5year loans is worth $730750 per vehicle. Auto Finance Terms: Fall 2023 vs. Now Source: FRB Man Stanley Research Mo n th l y A v g A m t Mo n th l y L o a n to I m p l Pr i c eA PR Ma tu r i ty F i n a n c e d Pa y m e n t Va l u e o f Ve h i c l eAu g 0 1 6 . 4 1 % 5 7 . 6 8 2 2 , 5 9 1$ ($ 4 5 6 ) 9 1 . 2 6 % 2 4 , 7 5 4$ Se p 0 1 5 . 4 2 % 5 7 . 2 0 2 3 , 0 4 9$ ($ 4 5 8 ) 9 2 . 0 7 % 2 5 , 0 3 4$ Au g 0 2 2 . 1 7 % 5 9 . 4 4 2 6 , 2 0 8$ ($ 4 6 5 ) 9 6 . 2 8 % 2 7 , 2 2 1$ Se p 0 2 2 . 2 9 % 5 8 . 4 0 2 6 , 3 9 6$ ($ 4 7 8 ) 9 6 . 2 5 % 2 7 , 4 2 4$ O ct 0 2 2 . 6 2 % 5 7 . 2 4 2 6 , 2 3 2$ ($ 4 8 8 ) 9 5 . 8 6 % 2 7 , 3 6 5$ N o v 0 2 3 . 4 1 % 5 7 . 1 6 2 6 , 2 6 6$ ($ 4 9 8 ) 9 5 . 2 7 % 2 7 , 5 7 0$ Ap r0 3 2 . 5 1 % 6 0 . 0 6 2 7 , 5 4 0$ ($ 4 8 8 ) 9 7 . 0 0 % 2 8 , 3 9 2$ Ma y0 3 2 . 4 0 % 6 0 . 7 4 2 7 , 9 2 0$ ($ 4 8 9 ) 9 7 . 3 3 % 2 8 , 6 8 6$ Ju n 0 3 2 . 9 3 % 6 2 . 4 3 2 6 , 9 4 5$ ($ 4 6 6 ) 9 6 . 8 2 % 2 7 , 8 3 0$ Ju l 0 3 3 . 2 8 % 6 2 . 6 8 2 6 , 1 2 9$ ($ 4 5 4 ) 9 5 . 1 8 % 2 7 , 4 5 3$ Au g 0 3 3 . 5 6 % 6 3 . 0 0 2 5 , 4 0 7$ ($ 4 4 3 ) 9 3 . 3 8 % 2 7 , 2 0 8$