【正文】 Man Stanley Research D a y。 Man Stanley Research 8004000400800NA Eu r P A G Oth e r3Q 02 3Q 03F New / Replacement / Redesigned Products Source: Company Data, Ward’s Automotive amp。 O P E B n e t o f p a y m e n ts , w a rr a n ty / i n c e n ti v e a c c ru a l sF Auto PreTax Profit, 19992020E Source: Company Data amp。 Man Stanley Research GM v s Fo r d c a s h f l ow 9 m os 0 3Ope r a t i ng GM FGM / b/ ( w) t ha n Fo r dN e t I nc om e 0 . 6 0 . 1 0 . 5Damp。 Man Stanley Research B r a n d P r o d u c t I n tro D a teC a d i l l a c S R X S e p 0 3C a d i l l a c X L R S e p 0 3C h e v r o l e t M a l i b u 2020C h e v r o l e t C o l o r a d o D e c 0 3C h e v r o l e t E q u i n o x e a r l y 2 0 0 4C h e v r o l e t C o r v e t t e 2020P o n t i a c G6 2020C a d i l l a c S T S 2020H u mme r H 3 2020C h e v r o l e t C o b a l t J u n 0 5S a a b 95 2020Ford Motor Company ? Earnings have exceeded expectations. Now cash flow needs to catch up. ? With the exception of the FSeries, new products are limited until yearend, suggesting share pressure is likely to continue. ? International Operations / Premier Auto Group need to start pulling their weight. ? Stability in management ranks is important. F Market Share 19%21%23%25%27%81CY83CY85CY87CY89CY91CY93CY95CY97CY99CY01CY03CYSource: Autodata amp。 Man Stanley Research I n v B u i l d I n v B u i l dD e c 02 D e c 03 D e c 01 D e c 02 D i ffGM 17 5, 89 6 71 , 09 7 10 4, 79 9F (1, 80 0) 16 1, 20 0 (16 3, 00 0)D CX 3, 70 8 75 , 60 1 (71 , 89 3)B i g 3 17 7, 80 4 30 7, 89 8 (13 0, 09 4)Financial Service Earnings Unlikely to Match 2020 Source: Company data amp。 Man Stanley Research C o m p o n e n ts (i n $ b i l l i o n s )Y E 200 2 (17. 8)S e r v i c e amp。 Pension Cost/Unit FY03 Source: Company data amp。 DCX and a fixed cost disadvantage. ? GM’s aggressive funding of pension and healthcare have helped to narrow the fixed cost disadvantage. ? Significant new product launches give GM its best chance of gaining share/reducing incentives in years. ? GM is going into 2020 with above average inventory. ? Finance pany earnings are likely to decline due to higher interest rates and lower mortgage refinancing activity. GM Market Share 25%27%29%31%33%35%37%90 CY 93 CY 96 CY 99 CY 02 CY% % % Source: Autodata amp。 Negatives Each Company Faces Unique Challenges: ? GM has operational momentum and has made significant strides relative to its fixed legacy costs. ? Ford’s share is likely to remain under pressure. While earnings and cost cutting have been strong, cash flow needs to catch up. ? DCX continues to struggle with its product line. Quality issues, both perceived (Chrysler) and actual (Mercedes) continue to linger. Big Three Relative Stock Performance: 2020 Source: FactSet amp。 Man Stanley Research GMA CFMC C5 Yr T r easu r y2 .0 %3 .0 %4 .0 %5 .0 %6 .0 %7 .0 %8 .0 %1Q963Q961Q973Q971Q983Q981Q993Q991Q004Q001Q013Q011Q023Q021Q033Q03Big 3 Opportunity: Actual Quality is Better than Perceived Quality 80. 060. 040. 020. 00. 020. 040. 0MercuryInfi ni tiBui ckLi ncol nChryslerLexusPorscheOl dsmobi leSaabAcuraSubaruToyotaCadi ll acNi ssanJeepSuzukiHondaFordMazdaChevrol et / GeoJaguarPonti acSaturnDodgeIsuzuBMWAudiHyundaiMitsubi shiMercedesVol voVol kswagenKiaRange RoverActual Perceived Quality GapA c t ua l qua l i t y pe r c e i v e d qua l i t y = s h a r e r i s kA c t ua l qua l i t y pe r c e i v e d qua l i t y = s h a r e o ppo r t un i t ySource: JD Power, CNW amp。 OPEB Expense for the Big Three Porsche Nissan BMW Honda Toyota Hyundai GM Peugeot Kia VW DCX Renault Ford Fiat % % % % % % % % % % % % % % Higher Rates Could be a Negative Higher rates create risk of weaker demand, weaker mix and lower finance pany earnings ? Extended terms suggest longer replacement rates. ? Every 1% increase in financing rates on 5year loans is worth $730750 per vehicle. Auto Finance Terms: Fall 2020 vs. Now Source: FRB amp。 Man Stanley Research Note: * Includes Acura, Infiniti, Lexus Y TD 0 3 I m p % D o m % O EM* I m p o r t D o m e s ti c O EM To ta l o f To ta l o f To ta lT o y o t a 62 9, 54 7 93 5, 61 9 1, 56 5, 16 6 40% 60%H o n da 27 1, 00 4 88 0, 63 7 1, 15 1, 64 1 24% 76%N i s s a n 23 5, 20 1 42 8, 38 0 66 3, 58 1 35% 65%Y TD 0 3 I m p o r t D o m e s ti c W e i gh te d A v g B as e d o n Ev e r y 1 ?O EM* ? C o n te n t ? C o n te n t ? C o n te n t 20200 M o v e Eq u al sT o y o t a 100% 24% 55% $1 0, 91 4 $93H o n da 100% 3% 26% $5 , 16 5 $44N i s s a n 100% 20% 48% $9 , 67 1 $82Weaker Dollar Could Help a Little Source: Man Stanley Research C o r r e l a ti o n s Ye n / $ v s . C PI N e w C a rT i m e F ra m e C o rre l a t i o nJa n 8 1 t h ro u g h M a y 9 5 9 1 . 1 %Ju n 9 5 t h ro u g h O ct 0 3 2 . 8 %Global Operating Margins FY02 Source: Company data amp。 W e a kn e s s a t 1 3 4 ?p e r U S $165。 Man Stanley Research 100110120130 J a n 9 9 N o v 9 9 S e p 0 0 J u l 0 1 M a y 0 2 M a r 0 3165。 Man Stanley Research 5 .0 % 4 .5 % 2 .6 % 1 .9 %