宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)課件(2)(參考版)
2025-01-23 04:18本頁面
【正文】 2022 SouthWestern Summary ? The shortrun Phillips curve also shifts because of shocks to aggregate supply. ? An adverse supply shock gives policymakers a less favorable tradeoff between inflation and unemployment. Copyright 169。 2022 SouthWestern Summary ? The Phillips curve describes a negative relationship between inflation and unemployment. ? By expanding aggregate demand, policymakers can choose a point on the Phillips curve with higher inflation and lower unemployment. ? By contracting aggregate demand, policymakers can choose a point on the Phillips curve with lower inflation and higher unemployment. Copyright 169。 2022 SouthWestern The Greenspan Era ? Fluctuations in inflation and unemployment in recent years have been relatively small due to the Fed’s actions. Copyright 169。 2022 SouthWestern The Greenspan Era ? Alan Greenspan’s term as Fed chairman began with a favorable supply shock. ? In 1986, OPEC members abandoned their agreement to restrict supply. ? This led to falling inflation and falling unemployment. Figure 12 The Greenspan Era 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 2 4 6 8 10 Unemployment Rate (percent) Inflation Rate (percent per year) 1984 1991 1985 1992 1986 1993 1994 1988 1987 1995 1996 2022 1998 1999 2022 2022 1989 1990 1997 Copyright 169。 2022 SouthWestern The Volcker Disinflation ? When Paul Volcker was Fed chairman in the 1970s, inflation was widely viewed as one of the nation’s foremost(最重要的 ) problems. ? Volcker succeeded in reducing inflation (from 10 percent to 4 percent), but at the cost of high employment (about 10 percent in 1983). Figure 11 The Volcker Disinflation 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 2 4 6 8 10 Unemployment Rate (percent) Inflation Rate (percent per year) 1980 1981 1982 1984 1986 1985 1979 A 1983 B 1987 C Copyright 169。 2022 SouthWestern Rational Expectations and the Possibility of Costless Disinflation ? Expected inflation explains why there is a tradeoff between inflation and unemployment in the short run but not in the long run. ? How quickly the shortrun tradeoff disappears depends on how quickly expectations adjust. Copyright 169。 2022 SouthWestern THE COST OF REDUCING INFLATION ? The sacrifice ratio(犧牲率 ) is the number of percentage points of annual output that is lost in the process of reducing inflation by one percentage point. ? An estimate of the sacrifice ratio is five. ? To reduce inflation from about 10% in 19791981 to 4% would have required an estimated sacrifice of 30% of annual output! Copyright 169。 2022 SouthWestern Copyright 169。 2022 SouthWestern Copyright 169。 2022 SouthWestern Copyright 169。 2022 SouthWestern SHIFTS IN THE PHILLIPS CURVE: THE ROLE OF SUPPLY SHOCKS ? The shortrun
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