【正文】 an. Lou held a joint interview with 27 media, including China Daily, the first in a series of interviews entitled Chinese Media Along the Silk Road. The interviews will be in Shaanxi and Gansu provinces and the Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, as well as Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkey. The media group held the first interview on Wednesday morning in Xi39。s public security bureau shows some 100 foreign visitors enjoyed the 72hour policy by the end of March, most of them from the United States, the United Kingdom and Germany. Chengdu also reported robust growth in its overall tourist industry last year. Official statistics show that it received some 150 million tourists last year, an increase of 28 percent from 2021. Around million came from abroad, an increase of 12 percent. Total revenue from touris m surpassed 133 billion yuan ($). During his visit to Kazakhstan in September, Chinese President Xi Jinping proposed that China and Central Asia join hands to build a Silk Road economic belt to boost cooperation. The idea has been widely echoed in Central Asian countries, being an encouraging blueprint for Chinese areas along the Silk Road that has linked Asia and Europe for more than 2,000 years. In the next three weeks, China Daily reporters will travel through the belt in China and in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkey. They will show the progress and expectations of the countries, businesses and peoples on the route. Shaanxi the start of the ancient Silk Road has positioned itself as the new starting point for the development of the Silk Road Economic Belt, which will strengthen China39。s ancient indigenous religion, while Du jiang yan is considered to be the oldest functioning watercontrol project in the world. Chengdu ranked third in tourist facilities, management and services among 60 Chinese cities in a customer satisfaction survey released last year. But, Li added that efforts are still needed to develop more tourism products, improve English services and provide accurate translation of traffic signs and scenic billboards. Zhao Yun, chairwoman of British Chamber of Commerce Southwest China, told China Daily that his colleagues found the policy very convenient. A British client once flew here and stayed for just one day to check her ordered goods, she said. Zhao was born in Shanxi province, but she has lived in Chengdu for more than 10 years. My life was like a running race moving from place to place. I also lived in Beijing and Shanghai before, she said. But Chengdu is a place that you never want to leave once settling down. It is now my second hometown, she said. If the environment is further improved, the city will attract more people to visit and live, with the 72hour visafree policy and pelling conditions in transportation, culture, climate and cuisine, he said. Foreigners also gave positive feedback on the policy. A spokesman from Dell Inc said the pany has a global hub of operation in Chengdu, so the threeday visa has an immediate and positive influence on the pany39。s level of internationalization. The policy will also bring direct economic revenue, Li said. Chengdu has many cultural legacies and is also a paradise for panda lovers with the world39。 Visafree policy brings Chengdu biz, tourism boost. Making national headlines several times, Chengdu39。中央銀行不應(yīng)直接刺破泡沫，是因?yàn)?A、央行并不能準(zhǔn)確地?cái)喽ㄊ欠裉幱谂菽校?B、央行并沒有非常理想的工具保證在泡沫被刺破時(shí)，經(jīng)濟(jì)仍然完好無損； C、利率 是抑制資產(chǎn)價(jià)格上漲的工具之一，但利率上升幅太小時(shí)不起作用，太大時(shí)則會(huì)導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。 ② 泡沫經(jīng)濟(jì)具有如下特征： A、出現(xiàn)了價(jià)格泡沫 B、泡沫資產(chǎn)總量在宏觀總量中達(dá)到了相當(dāng)?shù)谋戎?C、泡沫資產(chǎn)與經(jīng)濟(jì)的各方面發(fā)生了系統(tǒng)性聯(lián)系 D、泡沫資產(chǎn)使經(jīng)濟(jì)潛伏危機(jī)?；蛘吒用髁撕?jiǎn)單的：即資產(chǎn)價(jià)格被高估了。 請(qǐng)仔細(xì)閱讀材料，然后回答下列問題： 1．聯(lián)系實(shí)際說明經(jīng)濟(jì)泡沫的本質(zhì)，并說明泡沫經(jīng)濟(jì)的基本特征。對(duì)此，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席格林斯潘做了較為全面的詮釋：首先，不能單憑資產(chǎn)價(jià)格上漲就斷定經(jīng)濟(jì)出現(xiàn)泡沫；其次，利率象一口鈍刀，升幅太小可能不會(huì)有任何作用，升幅過大又會(huì)導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。于是有人認(rèn)為， 20 世紀(jì)90年代末期，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)應(yīng)更早一些提高利率，那樣就不會(huì)發(fā)生后來的股市狂跌情況，或至少其程度不會(huì)那么嚴(yán)重。 ③ 機(jī)構(gòu)投資者傳染渠道：由于機(jī)構(gòu)投資者證券組合的相互依賴和證券組合的重新分配所形成。金融傳染渠道可分為 ① 金融直接傳染渠道：當(dāng)一國(guó)與危機(jī)國(guó)存在直接的金融聯(lián)系，傳染渠道為此。 3．試論述國(guó)際收支危機(jī)的金融傳染渠道。根據(jù)其內(nèi)在機(jī)理不同，國(guó)際收支的貿(mào)易傳染渠道又可分為 “直接貿(mào)易渠道 ”和 “間接貿(mào)易傳染渠道 ”兩種。 2．簡(jiǎn)述國(guó)際收支危機(jī)的貿(mào)易傳染渠道。對(duì)信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的認(rèn)知，可以使投資者更加理智。 P325積極作用：信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是金融市場(chǎng)的一種內(nèi)在的推動(dòng)和制約力量。 8．防止國(guó)際收支危機(jī)傳染有哪些具體措施？ ① 加強(qiáng)國(guó)際合作，特別是金融監(jiān)管方面的合作； ② 推動(dòng)對(duì)外貿(mào)易金融聯(lián)系的適度多元化； ③ 保持國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)的健康運(yùn)行，穩(wěn)步推進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)金融改革，謹(jǐn)慎調(diào)整利率； ④ 推進(jìn)國(guó)際金融體系的改革； ⑤ 充分汲取中國(guó)在抵御國(guó)際收支危機(jī)傳染方面的政策經(jīng)驗(yàn)。 ③ 危機(jī)國(guó)與傳染國(guó)都存在經(jīng)濟(jì)基本面的不穩(wěn)定。 7． 20世紀(jì) 90年代三次大的國(guó)際收支危機(jī)有什么共同點(diǎn)？ ① 首先，受到傳染的國(guó)家和地區(qū)與危機(jī)國(guó)常常有密切的貿(mào)易聯(lián)系。 6．什么是經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)期傳染和政治預(yù)期傳染？ 指受影響的國(guó)家在具有相似的經(jīng)濟(jì)基本面或者面臨共同的外部沖擊時(shí)發(fā)生 的危機(jī)傳導(dǎo)。由于機(jī)構(gòu)投資者在當(dāng)前的國(guó)際金融市場(chǎng)上的顯著影響力，其在不同市場(chǎng)上的投資組合是相互聯(lián)系的，一旦某個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體出現(xiàn)危機(jī)，機(jī)構(gòu)投資人就會(huì)做出相應(yīng)的反應(yīng)，這種反應(yīng)構(gòu)成危機(jī)傳染渠道。 ③ 預(yù)期傳染渠道：包括經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)期傳染、政治預(yù)期傳染、文化相似型預(yù)期傳染、羊群行為傳染渠道等。 4．國(guó)際收支危機(jī)都有哪些傳染渠道？ ① 有貿(mào)易傳染渠道：包括直接貿(mào)易渠道、間接貿(mào)易渠道。 借款企業(yè)股東的股權(quán)市場(chǎng)值頭寸可以看做是持有的一份的企業(yè)資產(chǎn)市值為標(biāo)的買權(quán)。 Z評(píng)分模 型：依靠會(huì)計(jì)資料基礎(chǔ)，相對(duì)客觀；趨向于定量分析、數(shù)量統(tǒng)計(jì)方法，多變量信用評(píng)分模型。內(nèi)在的不確定性導(dǎo)致非系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。不確定性包括外在的不確定性和內(nèi)在的不確定性。 二、簡(jiǎn)答題 1．現(xiàn)代信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的成因。 12．羊群行為：指市場(chǎng)上存在那些沒有形成自己的預(yù)期或沒有獲得到一手信息的投資者，他們將根據(jù)其他投資者的行為來改變自己的行為。