電大?？剖袌?chǎng)調(diào)查與商情預(yù)測(cè)期末復(fù)習(xí)考試資料必備小抄(參考版)
2025-06-06 21:58本頁(yè)面
【正文】 t apply to CCTV, meaning it will bee a highly desired platform by production panies. Wang Changtian, CEO of Enlight Media, confirmed to the Shanghai Securities News that its programs scheduled to air on CCTV next year, which include at least two reality shows, won39。s most popular TV stars Xie Na. The show is geared toward younger audiences. Canxing Productions, which rose to fame with the success of its Voice of China series on Zhejiang TV, also produced two talent shows for CCTV. One is an original production called Songs of China, which ended up as one of CCTV39。s channels, including the Chinese version of The Biggest Loser on CCTV39。s expectations, he says the program has already helped CCTV attract more young people. According to Enlight Media, the number of people ages 15 to 35 who watched the first episode of Rising Star was 76 percent higher than the usual audience for CCTV entertainment productions. In order to attract young audiences, CCTV has been working with independent production panies. As one of CCTV39。t make it there, we now have to make the best out of the given conditions. And it means we have to make certain promises. When the current season of Rising Star ends, Zhang says his pany will conduct an overall evaluation of the program and make adjustments for future seasons. Although audience ratings haven39。s audience base nationwide. But it es with a challenge, says Zhang Hang, chief producer of the program and CEO of Enlight Media39。s latest episode, more than million votes were cast via WeChat. Now the petition among entertainment shows is very fierce. Audiences have more diverse needs. CCTV needs to embrace an open attitude, interact with young audiences and blend with the Inter, says Lyu Yitao, director of CCTV39。re willing to change for them, they will quickly like you back. In order to win more young viewers, CCTV is relying on programs such as Rising Star to embrace Inter culture. In Rising Star, a studio audience and fans watching on television vote for their favorite singers in real time, using the instantmessaging app WeChat. Rising Star was designed to be a live broadcast, but the Chinese version isn39。s reaction to the criticism was surprising. During the second episode, he jokingly called himself the slow Jiaming and acted much younger, talking faster and louder. It39。 40000*～ 40000* 即： 144320～ 175680 （ 4）已知食糖銷售量的季節(jié)指數(shù)，第一季度為 108%，按上述食糖年人均需要量置信區(qū)間，估算出該市第一季度食糖需求量的置信區(qū)間。 因?yàn)橹眯哦葹?95%，所以 t= △ x =t181。 a=8 n=1600 181。調(diào)查結(jié)果，樣本平均每戶需要食糖 4 公斤，樣本標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差為 8。% 即 %～ % 又因?yàn)?N=16 萬(wàn)，所以該市居民年洗衣機(jī)保有量置信區(qū)間為： %16 ～ %16 即 94272～ 97728（臺(tái)） 6．某商場(chǎng)銷售額歷史資料如下：（單位：百萬(wàn)元） 年份 03 04 05 06 07 銷 售額 560 620 685 747 808 試用最小平方法擬合直線方程，預(yù)測(cè)該商場(chǎng) 2021 年銷售額。 （ 2）若 置信度為 95％，試估計(jì)樣本置信區(qū)間，并推斷全市洗衣機(jī)保有量置信區(qū)間。 5．某市常住居民 16 萬(wàn)戶，抽選 8000戶進(jìn)行洗衣機(jī)普及率調(diào)查，得知樣本平均每百戶洗衣機(jī)保有量為 60 臺(tái)。 (2)若置信度為 95％，試估計(jì)樣本年人均食糖需求量置信區(qū)間，并 推斷全市食糖需求量置信區(qū)間。 2．某地區(qū) 2021～ 2021年水稻產(chǎn)量資料如下表： 試用最小平方法預(yù)測(cè) 2021 年水稻產(chǎn)量。根據(jù)上述資料，要求： (1)用單純隨機(jī)抽樣方式的重復(fù)抽樣公式，計(jì)算抽樣誤差。（ 4）用預(yù)測(cè)模型計(jì)算預(yù)測(cè)值，并對(duì)預(yù)測(cè)值作區(qū)間估計(jì)。（ 2）確定回歸方程，建立預(yù)測(cè)模型。 。（ 3）是一種比較節(jié)省的調(diào)查方法 。它具有以下特點(diǎn)：（ 1）抽取樣本的客觀性。 (2)相關(guān)關(guān)系的定量分析必須用函數(shù)表達(dá)式來(lái)近似地反映自變量與因變量之間的一般關(guān)系值。二者的區(qū)別是：函數(shù)關(guān)系所反映的現(xiàn)象間具體關(guān)系 是固定的，而相關(guān)關(guān)系所反映的現(xiàn)象間的 具體關(guān)系值不固定。 (2)現(xiàn)象之間數(shù)量依存關(guān)系不是確定的，具有一定的隨機(jī)性。它反映現(xiàn)象之間存在的，但并不嚴(yán)格固定的數(shù)量依存關(guān)系。這種關(guān)系可用一個(gè)數(shù)字表達(dá)式或數(shù)量對(duì)等的經(jīng)濟(jì)公式反映出來(lái)。 8．抽樣調(diào)查的特點(diǎn)是什么 ? 答：抽樣調(diào)查具有以下特點(diǎn)： (1)抽取樣本的客觀性； (2)可以比較準(zhǔn)確地推斷總體； (3)是一種比較節(jié)省的凋查方法； (4)應(yīng)用范圍廣泛，特別適用于研究市場(chǎng)現(xiàn)象的數(shù)量表現(xiàn)。不同意見(jiàn)可以討論 . (4)會(huì)議人數(shù)以適宜解決預(yù)測(cè)問(wèn)題為準(zhǔn)。 (z)應(yīng)圍繞預(yù)測(cè)所研究的問(wèn)題全面邀請(qǐng)專家。 (4)組織者整理后加以必要說(shuō)明，反饋給專家重新判斷其意見(jiàn) . (5)反復(fù)幾輪專家意見(jiàn)比較一致后，作出預(yù)測(cè)值。 (2)設(shè)計(jì)調(diào)查表，準(zhǔn)備有關(guān)資料。 。這是出成果的階段； (4)市場(chǎng)調(diào)查總結(jié)階段。具體工作包括確定調(diào)查任務(wù)，設(shè)計(jì)調(diào)查方案，組建調(diào)查隊(duì)伍等； (2)市場(chǎng)調(diào)查搜集資料階段。 ？ 答：一項(xiàng)成功的市場(chǎng)調(diào)查，必須堅(jiān)持以下原則： (1)真實(shí)性和準(zhǔn)確性原則； (2)全面性和系統(tǒng)性原則； (3)經(jīng)濟(jì)性原則； (4)時(shí)效性原則。（ 3）整理匯總主觀概率調(diào)查表。 應(yīng)用主觀概率市場(chǎng)預(yù)測(cè)法，一般要按下面幾個(gè)步驟進(jìn)行 ：（ 1）說(shuō)明預(yù)測(cè)目的和要求，提供必要的資料。 答：主觀概率是預(yù)測(cè)者根據(jù)自己的實(shí)踐經(jīng)驗(yàn)和判斷分析能力，對(duì)某種事件在未來(lái)發(fā)生的可能性的估計(jì)值。 (2)對(duì)同一市場(chǎng)現(xiàn)象連續(xù)計(jì)算其指數(shù)平滑值 . (3)指數(shù)平滑法中的 a 值，是一個(gè)可調(diào)節(jié)的權(quán)數(shù)值， 0≤a≤l 。 ？ 答：指數(shù)平滑法，實(shí)際上是一種特殊的加權(quán)移動(dòng)平均法。（ 4）表述
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