【正文】 s financial future. More important, the process of thinking through the financial plan will improve your insight into the inner financial workings of your pany. 12Month Profit and Loss Projection Many business owners think of the 12month profit and loss projection as the centerpiece of their plan. This is where you put it all together in numbers and get an idea of what it will take to make a profit and be successful. Your sales projections will e from a sales forecast in which you forecast sales, cost of goods sold, expenses, and profit monthbymonth for one year. Profit projections should be acpanied by a narrative explaining the major assumptions used to estimate pany ine and expenses. Research Notes: Keep careful notes on your research and assumptions, so that you can explain them later if necessary, and also so that you can go back to your sources when it’s time to revise your plan. FourYear Profit Projection (Optional) The 12month projection is the heart of your financial plan. The FourYear Profit projection is for those who want to carry their forecasts beyond the first year. Of course, keep notes of your key assumptions, especially about things that you expect will change dramatically after the first year. Projected Cash Flow If the profit projection is the heart of your business plan, cash flow is the blood. Businesses fail because they cannot pay their bills. Every part of your business plan is important, but none of it means a thing if you run out of cash. The point of this worksheet is to plan how much you need before startup, for preliminary expenses, operating expenses, and reserves. You should keep updating it and using it afterward. It will enable you to foresee shortages in time to do something Page 25 of 31 about them— perhaps cut expenses, or perhaps negotiate a loan. But foremost, you shouldn’t be taken by surprise. There is no great trick to preparing it: The cashflow projection is just a forward look at your checking account. For each item, determine when you actually expect to receive cash (for sales) or when you will actually have to write a check (for expense items). You should track essential operating data, which is not necessarily part of cash flow but allows you to track items that have a heavy impact on cash flow, such as sales and inventory purchases. You should also track cash outlays prior to opening in a prestartup column. You should have already researched those for your startup expenses plan. Your cash flow will show you whether your working capital is adequate. Clearly, if your projected cash balance ever goes negative, you will need more startup capital. This plan will also predict just when and how much you will need to borrow. Explain your major assumptions, especially those that make the cash flow differ from the Profit and Loss Projection. For example, if you make a sale in month one, when do you actually collect the cash? When you buy inventory or materials, do you pay in advance, upon delivery, or much later? How will this affect cash flow? Are some expenses payable in advance? When? Are there irregular expenses, such as quarterly tax payments, maintenance and repairs, or seasonal inventory buildup, that should be budgeted? Loan payments, equipment purchases, and owner39。 and large petitors can under price you anyway. Usually you will do better to have average prices and pete on quality and service. Does your pricing strategy fit with what was revealed in your petitive analysis? Compare your prices with those of the petition. Are they higher, lower, the same? Why? How important is price as a petitive factor? Do your intended customers really make their purchase decisions mostly on price? What will be your customer service and credit policies? Proposed Location Probably you do not have a precise location picked out yet. This is the time to think about what you want and need in a location. Many startups run successfully from home for a while. You will describe your physical needs later, in the Operational Plan section. Here, analyze your location criteria as they will affect your customers. Page 14 of 31 Is your location important to your customers? If yes, how? If customers e to your place of business: Is it convenient? Parking? Interior spaces? Not out of the way? Is it consistent with your image? Is it what customers want and expect? Where is the petition located? Is it better for you to be near them (like car dealers or fast food restaurants) or distant (like convenience food stores)? Distribution Channels How do you sell your products or services? Retail Direct (mail order, Web, catalog) Wholesale Your own sales force Agents Independent representatives Bid on contracts Sales Forecast Now that you have described your products, services, customers, markets, and marketing plans in detail, it’s time to attach some numbers to your plan. Use a sales forecast spreadsheet to prepare a monthbymonth projection. The forecast should be based on your historical sales, the marketing strategies that you have just described, your market research, and industry data, if available. You may want to do two forecasts: 1) a best guess, which is what you really expect, and 2) a worst case low estimate that you are confident you can reach no matter what happens. Page 15 of 31 Remember to keep notes on your research and your assumptions as you build this sales forecast and all subsequent spreadsheets in the plan. This is critical if you are going to present it to funding sources. Page 16 of 31 VI. Operational Plan Explain the daily operation of the business, its location, equipment, people, processes, and surrounding environment. Production How and where are your products or services produced? Explain your methods of: ? Production techniques and costs ? Qu