【正文】 我們可以從中學(xué)到一或兩個竅門，這在和平時期遲早用的上。我想可以很公正地說，作為當時在華盛頓的年輕凱恩斯主義者－與那里的其他凱恩斯主義者也有聯(lián)系，我們那時都清楚地看到了這一實證。 civilian soldiers to turn out the fighters, the bombers. 新聞片旁白：……男人和女人做制服；機械師造槍炮彈藥；汽車工人生產(chǎn)吉普和卡車，建造艦船和坦克。隨著美國政府大舉借債并將資金用于備戰(zhàn)，高失業(yè)率的狀況得到改觀，大蕭條也結(jié)束了。這是基本要點，而你不擔心負債的問題，或者更確切地說，你擔心負債問題，但無論如何你還是要這樣做。s ideas trickled down from Harvard to Washington, turning the federal government39。JOHN KENNETH GALBRAITH, Professor Emeritus, Harvard University: I39。ROBERT SKIDELSKY: He gave people hope that unemployment could be cured without concentration camps. ROBERT SKIDELSKY：他給了人們希望－失業(yè)問題是可以克服的。s solution to unemployment was for the government to spend the money to restore and maintain full employment. ROBERT SKIDELSKY：凱恩斯解決失業(yè)問題的方案是擴大政府開支以恢復(fù)和保持充分就業(yè)。在某種意義上，這也是他們對整個美國經(jīng)濟的目標。re going to tell you what routes you can fly. And with that system they eliminated these very vicious cycles of boom and bust in the aviation industry, and in a sense, that was what they were aiming to do throughout the American economy. ：航空業(yè)是一個很好的例子。DANIEL YERGIN: And the airline industry was a very good example of that. You had people go into this business, be very petitive, they39。同時，他們制定了一項計劃，該計劃將以前所未有的方式對資本主義進行調(diào)控，以保護人們免受自由市場無序發(fā)展所帶來的傷害。DANIEL YERGIN: For Roosevelt and the New Deal, it was a war. They were at war with the Great Depression, and they responded with frenetic activity, relief programs for the unemployed, for the hungry。我將要求國會給予我廣泛的行政權(quán)利，這是剩下來的能夠?qū)Ω段C的手段。因此凱恩斯必須為大蕭條找到一個答案，否則民主就會被極權(quán)主義吞沒。它還將告訴我們?nèi)绾巫尳?jīng)濟運行得更好。s economy as a whole, as a machine that could be managed. 在劍橋，凱恩斯通過撰寫一部關(guān)于大蕭條的原因及應(yīng)該如何應(yīng)付它的著作開始從資本主義制度本身尋求拯救之道。而意大利、西班牙和德國的游行則發(fā)展到另一種不同的結(jié)果。成百萬美國人－男人、婦女和孩子－在寒風(fēng)中等待分配救濟品。29 on, about half the banks in the United States closed. KENNETH RANDALL: 那個時期從1929年開始，大約有一半的美國銀行倒閉。NARRATOR: People panicked. They rushed to withdraw their hardearned savings. 旁白：人們驚惶失措，一窩蜂地去擠兌他們辛苦賺來的積蓄。由于價格隨時間而不斷螺旋下降，人們沒有能力賺錢，沒有能力還債，沒有能力花錢，也沒有能力消費。從股票市場崩潰開始，美國不知不覺陷入了絕望的境地。s slide into despair. 旁白：這是典型的股票市場泡沫。無線電就好比是二十年代的因特網(wǎng)－一個新興行業(yè)。t get enough of it. And the favorite stock of the day was in these new radio panies. Radio was like the Internet of the 1920s, an industry that had e from nowhere. And the number one glamour stock was RCA, which in just a few years went from a dollar and a half a share to $600 a share. Americans couldn39。反對通貨膨脹的斗爭成為他經(jīng)濟哲學(xué)的一個基礎(chǔ)。惡性通貨膨脹掏空了中產(chǎn)階級的口袋。s favorite beer keller, a glass of beer cost a billion marks. Hyperinflation wiped out the savings of the middle class. 旁白：當時正在一個統(tǒng)計學(xué)研究機構(gòu)工作的哈耶克八個月內(nèi)加了八次薪。Chapter 4: A Capitalist Collapse [8:48]第四章：資本主義的崩潰Onscreen title: Vienna, 1923字幕標題：維也納，1923年NARRATOR: Germany and Austria were living with the economic consequences of the peace. Forced to pay unbearable war reparations, the defeated governments simply printed more money. The result: inflation, more inflation, hyperinflation. It took a basket full of paper money to go shopping. 旁白：德國和奧地利為和平付出了經(jīng)濟上的代價：戰(zhàn)敗了的政府完全依靠印刷更多的鈔票來支付難以承受的戰(zhàn)爭賠款，結(jié)果造成通貨膨脹，更嚴重的通貨膨脹，直到惡性通貨膨脹。s iron grip on the manding heights of the economy. Joseph Stalin introduced central planning. Under him, the Communist Party planned and managed every aspect of the economy. While munism seemed to be forging ahead, capitalism looked to be doomed. 列寧的繼任者加強了在經(jīng)濟制高點行業(yè)的鐵腕統(tǒng)治。在列寧的葬禮上，悼念者們堅信他們是順應(yīng)歷史潮流的。列寧那是已經(jīng)中過一次風(fēng)，健康狀況不佳，但是他仍然進行生命中最后幾次演講；他仍然是那個年邁的列寧，尖刻、諷刺。 he was sarcastic. His critics, he said, were fools, were stupid, because the state, the government, the Bolsheviks would control the overall economy: steel, railroads, coal, the heavy industries what he called the manding heights of the economy. ：列寧知道他需要推行另一種不同的政策，于是他推行了著名的“新經(jīng)濟政策”。但是偉大的馬克思主義的試驗陷入了困境。s predictions were ing true. Lenin had abolished what he saw as the chaos of free markets. The state controlled the economy. Wages and prices were fixed. But the great Marxist experiment was in trouble. Lenin had an economic disaster on his hands. Soviet Russia was a grim place, haunted by cold, famine, hunger, and death. 旁白：在蘇聯(lián)，Von Mises的預(yù)言看起來好像應(yīng)驗了。t have them, what you get is a system that doesn39。DANIEL YERGIN: What von Mises said is that the great flaw of socialism is that it doesn39。ALBERT ZLABINGER: Ludwig von Mises was the preeminent economist of the Austrian school. The distinguishing hallmark of the Austrian school of economic thought is that markets work and governments don39。s intellectual life took place outside the university, in the coffeehouses across the Ringstrasse. There were informal seminars for those who loved discussion and argument. Hayek joined the circle of a passionate libertarian called Ludwig von Mises. Von Mises believed markets, like people, needed to be free from government meddling. 旁白：維也納的學(xué)術(shù)活動多數(shù)是在大學(xué)以外的Ringstrasse對面的咖啡館進行的。NARRATOR: Socialism seemed to promise a more just society. Albert Zlabinger, a former pupil and disciple of Hayek: 旁白：社會主義似乎承諾了一個更公正的社會。社會主義者和共產(chǎn)主義者贏得了人心。沒有什么能夠延緩最終的大戰(zhàn)，而這戰(zhàn)爭將摧毀人類文明和我們這一代的發(fā)展進程。GEOFFREY HARCOURT, Professor of Economics, Cambridge University: Keynes felt the reparations were out of all proportion to what an economy could really take and would have very destructive social, political, and economic consequences.GEOFFREY HARCOURT, 劍橋大學(xué)經(jīng)濟學(xué)教授:凱恩斯認為賠款完全超出了一個經(jīng)濟體所能承受的限度并將造成破壞性的社會、政治和經(jīng)濟后果。Familiar with politicians and prime ministers, Keynes spent the first world war advising the British government on how to organize its wartime economy. At the end of the war, Keynes joined the British peace delegation at Versailles in France. The victorious allies wanted defeated Germany to pay the costs of the war through what were called reparations. 因為凱恩斯與政治家們和首相們很熟悉，第一次世界大戰(zhàn)期間他向英國政府就應(yīng)如何組織戰(zhàn)時經(jīng)濟提供顧問服務(wù)。Onscreen title: Cambridge University, 1918字幕標題：劍橋大學(xué)，1918年The man who was destined to be Hayek39。在馬克思經(jīng)濟理論的鼓舞下，布爾什維克尋求推翻資本主義。DANIEL YERGIN: The first world war was a cataclysm. People were disillusioned. People were bitter. They were looking for something better. Socialism, munism seemed to promise that better world. : 第一次世界大戰(zhàn)無異于一次大地震，它使人們幡然醒悟并痛苦萬分。戰(zhàn)斗