人壽保險(xiǎn)利率與回報(bào)數(shù)據(jù)分析-資料下載頁
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【正文】 * MSCI indices （ US, UK, Germany, France） , equally weighted in local currency。 high = return 10%, low = return 10% ** Average government bond yields in local currency Source： Datastream, IMF ? ? ? 85 83 86 93 97 99 89 88 84 95 96 91 82 98 92 87 00 94 90 81 01 02 SWZXD93720231021HENVBM AsiaV3 51 LIMITING THE DOWNSIDE 5 10 15 20 Description Stocks 百分比 Trigger points 4 3 2 1 Current value Index ? Buying of put option on index ? Buying of put option and selling of put option at lower strike price （leads to reduced costs） Payout scheme Index Equity Index Equity Put Put spread Derivative products Stoploss program SWZXD93720231021HENVBM AsiaV3 52 5 0 7 09 0 1 1 01 5 2 5SIGNIFICANT TURNOVER IN INSURERS39。 EQUITY PORTFOLIOS? Index fund Actively managed fund Insurers*equity portfolio Equity portfolio turnover, 百分比 * * Average of absolute amounts of security sales and purchases divided by yearend 市值 of portfolio from reported consolidated cash flow statements Source： Annual reports, McKinsey ?Outsidein view suggesting that insurers take an active equity portfolio management approach ?Not transparent whether active approach value creating for shareholder – Substantial transaction cost – Adds risk vs. benchmark Leading to transaction costs of 10 –20 個(gè)基點(diǎn) of AuM ROUGH ESTIMATES SWZXD93720231021HENVBM AsiaV3 53 1970 MODELING OF INFORCE BUSINESS Inforce book 負(fù)債 to policyholders 市值 （discounted at riskfree rate） Technical reserves （discounted at technical rate） 2023 2023 1999 1998 2023 2030 Expected cashflows All inforce policies split by product and underwriting year ?Expected cashflows are calculated by modelling all inforce policies ?Largest part of future 損益 statement driven by today39。s inforce book SWZXD93720231021HENVBM AsiaV3 54 DATA GRANULARITY Overall Business units ?Legal entities ?Performance cells Corporate center Value based information ? Insurance ? Investment ? Corporate center ? NonLife – Motor – Accident Health – Property Fire – General liability – Other ? Life – Individual ? Traditional ? Unit linked – Group ? Traditional ? Unit linked ? Product centers ? Distribution channels – Agents – Direct – Broker – Bank ? Large corporate ? Small and midsize mercial ? Personal ? Central reinsurance （gross/） ? Asset allocation ? Capital structure Line of business Business functions Customer segments Level of detail will be driven by ? Managerial needs ? Required future flexibility ? Cost/benefit tradeoffs Source： McKinsey SWZXD93720231021HENVBM AsiaV3 55 BEST PRACTICE OF A RISKBASED VALUE MANAGEMENT CAPABILITY PLATFORM ? Business mix ? Reinsurance program ? Asset mix ? Capitalization/dividend policy ? Growth objectives Business levers Business scenarios/reports Distributions 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資本 performance Valuation model Profit loss Year 1 Balance sheet Year 1 Year 2 Nonlife claims risk simulation Life risk simulation Risk simulation modules Uncertain claims payments per product Uncertain ? Mortality/ morbidity ? Lapse rate Financial market risk simulation Uncertain market returns Source： McKinsey 謝謝觀看 /歡迎下載 BY FAITH I MEAN A VISION OF GOOD ONE CHERISHES AND THE ENTHUSIASM THAT PUSHES ONE TO SEEK ITS FULFILLMENT REGARDLESS OF OBSTACLES. BY FAITH I BY FAITH
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