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【正文】 0 2,500 Declining A/S Ratio 1,000/2,000 = 。 1,100/2,500 = . Declining ratio shows economies of scale. Going from S = 0 to S = $2,000 requires $1,000 of assets. Next $500 of sales requires only $100 of assets. Base Stock } 4 27 Copyright 169。 2023 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved. Assets Sales 1,000 2,000 500 A/S changes if assets are lumpy. Generally will have excess capacity, but eventually a small DS leads to a large DA. 500 1,000 1,500 4 28 Copyright 169。 2023 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved. Regression Analysis for Asset Forecasting ?Get historical data on a good pany, then fit a regression line to see how much a given sales increase will require in way of asset increase. 4 29 Copyright 169。 2023 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved. Example of Regression Constant ratio overestimates inventory required to go from S1 = 2,000 to S2 = 2,500. For a WellManaged Co. Year Sales Inv. 1998 $1,280 $118 1999 1,600 138 2023 2,000 162 2023E 2,500E 192E Inventory Sales (000) Regression line Constant ratio forecast 4 30 Copyright 169。 2023 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved. How would increases in these items affect the AFN? ?Higher dividend payout ratio? Increase AFN: Less retained earnings. ?Higher profit margin? Decrease AFN: Higher profits, more retained earnings. ?Higher capital intensity ratio, A*/S0? Increase AFN: Need more assets for given sales increase. ?Pay suppliers in 60 days rather than 30 days? Decrease AFN: Trade creditors supply more capital, ., L*/S0 increases. 4 31 Copyright 169。 2023 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved. Summary: How different factors affect the AFN forecast. ? Excess capacity: ?Existence lowers AFN. ? Base stocks of assets: ?Leads to lessthanproportional asset increases. ? Economies of scale: ?Also leads to lessthanproportional asset increases. ? Lumpy assets: ?Leads to large periodic AFN requirements, recurring excess capacity. 4 32 Copyright 169。 2023 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved. 演講完畢，謝謝觀看！
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