【正文】 s model for social development ? 國家與民眾兩大需求是整個過程的動力源 the main two driving force sources are the demanding of the government and the citizen. ? 瓶頸性的社會需求激勵具有社會宏觀推動力科技創(chuàng)新成果的開發(fā) the glass ceiling social demands stimulate the development of technological innovation ? 科學技術前期研究成果是科技創(chuàng)新的基礎 the previous research achievements are the base of technological innovation ? 政府是技術創(chuàng)新的推動力和控制力 the government is the driving and operational force of technological innovation ? 產業(yè)化是技術創(chuàng)新成果進入社會的重要一環(huán) industrialization is a important link of entering the society for the technological innovation ? 具有爆發(fā)作用的產品一旦進入社會將引起某些社會行為模式的變化 the product which has stir function will bring some action mode changes, when entering the society ? 社會的宏觀發(fā)展是波動式的 the social macrodevelopment has fluctuation 技術創(chuàng)新成果的社會推動力評價 evaluate the stimulation of technological innovation to of social development 生物質乙醇燃料項目 Project of Cassava Ethanol fuel 為解決我國能源問題，國家希望發(fā)展可再生能源，生物質能源是重要組成部分，特別是生物質乙醇燃料，已在我國 8個省推廣運用。國家希望乙醇燃料成為我國未來能源的重要組成部分。 To solve the energy crisis, our government decided to develop the renewable sources, and the biology source is an important ponent part, especially the ethanol fuel. Today the ethanol fuel has been put into application in eight provinces. The state government hopes ethanol to act as an important ponent in the future energy resource 生物質原料：陳化小麥、玉米、木薯 biology raw materials: old wheat, maize and cassava 預測內容 forecasts ① 乙醇燃料能否成為我國未來能源的重要組成部分，從而改變傳統依靠石油、煤與天然氣等化石能源的我國能源結構模式。Whether ethanol fuel can bee an important China39。s future energy ponent and then change the traditional energy structure model which is reliant on oil, coal and natural gas and other fossil fuels. ② 能否通過發(fā)展生物質乙醇燃料，形成能源農業(yè)，從而改變我國農業(yè)的結構模式，進一步推進農村模式的重大變化 Whether through the development of biology ethanol fuel, and develop an energy agricultural, thereby changing the structure of China39。s agriculture model, and further push forward the major changes of rural model. 能耗分析得出： analyze energy consumption conclude X=消耗化石能源 /(1單位燃料乙醇能源 ) X=consumption of fossil energy/energy emission of 1 unit fuel 通過美國大衛(wèi) — 露茜 派克德基金項目的研究 though the . The David and Lucile Packard Foundation project research 木薯乙醇 小麥乙醇 玉米乙醇 蔗糖乙醇 汽油 X= 化石能源主要消耗于乙醇高溫發(fā)酵過程中 The main energy consumption is in the ethanol high temperature fermentation process ? 木薯燃料乙醇成本的 75%為木薯干片成本； 75% cost of cassava ethanol is the cost of dry cassava slices ? 陳化玉米燃料乙醇成本的 76%為陳化玉米成本； 75% cost of old maize ethanol is the cost of dry maize ? 陳化小麥燃料乙醇成本的 78%為陳化小麥成本； 78% cost of old wheat ethanol is the cost of wheat 通過美國大衛(wèi) — 露茜 派克德基金項目的研究 the . The David and Lucile Packard Foundation project research 成本分析得出 : cost analysis show 新鮮玉米燃料乙醇成本的 82%為新鮮玉米成本； 82% cost of new maize ethanol is the cost of new maize 新鮮小麥燃料乙醇成本的 83%為新鮮小麥成本。 83% cost of new wheat ethanol is the cost of new wheat 采用低成本植物發(fā)展生物質能源的關鍵技術尚待突破 ，如使用秸稈。 How to make use of low prize raw materials such as the stalks still need technical improvement 潛力分析得出： potential analysis: ? 玉米乙醇、小麥乙醇、木薯乙醇三種生物質燃料乙醇，最大生產潛力總計為 1008萬噸。 The largest potential producing of maize, wheat and cassava ethanol is 10,080,000 tons. ? 1噸乙醇相當于 ， 1008萬噸燃料乙醇可取代 625萬噸汽油。 1 ton ethanol provide the equivalent energy as million ton gasoline. 通過美國大衛(wèi) — 露茜 派克德基金項目的研究 the . The David and Lucile Packard Foundation project research ? 根據測算， 2023年我國汽車汽油需求量為 7900萬噸，若生物質乙醇發(fā)揮全部生產潛力，可解決汽車能源的 8% 。 According to forecast, in 2023 China39。s demand 79 million tons automobile gasoline, if all the biology ethanol play its whole production potential, it could substitute 8% vehicles energy 我國人均可耕地面積僅占全世界人均可耕地面積的 % ，限制了玉米和小麥乙醇燃料原材料的生產，急需開發(fā)適于全國范圍的、非占用可耕地能源植物，如甜高粱。木薯是很好的原材料，但只能在亞熱帶生長。 In China the available arable land for each people is just around the % world condition, this limiting the large scale growing of corn and wheat as ethanol fuel raw materials, we starving need for developing nonarable land growing energy plants, such as sweet shum. Cassava is a good raw material, but only in the subtropical growth. 能源已成為我國國民經濟發(fā)展的瓶頸 energy has been severing as the grass ceiling of the development of China’ s economy 目前依靠傳統乙醇制造技術已將乙醇燃料生產投入產業(yè)化 Ethanol which is currently relying on traditional manufacturing technology has been industrialized 政府已將發(fā)展新能源作為十一五的重要目標加以推動 The government has set the new energy planning as an important objective in the 11th five years schedule 關鍵在于傳統乙醇燃料生產技術不能帶來能源結構的巨大變化，產生爆發(fā)作用 The key lies in the traditional fuel ethanol production technology neither can not bring about great changes in the structure of energy, nor bring a outbreak role 國家能源戰(zhàn)略需求是動力源 State energy strategy demand is the power source 人們期待著下述技術從實驗室的觀念性創(chuàng)新成果轉化為產業(yè)可應用的技術創(chuàng)新成果： people anticipate the following technologies to go out of laboratory and play a role in production industry ? 低溫發(fā)酵技術 low temperature fermentation technology ? 低成本、高產值生物質原料的乙醇生產技術 low cost, high production biology raw material for ethanol ? 不爭奪可耕地的能源植物種植技術 technology of growing energy plants which could live in nonarable land 結論：使燃料乙醇成為未來能源的關鍵技術還有待于從不完全創(chuàng)新到完全創(chuàng)新過程的突破。 Result: the key technology of developing ethanol into the future energy is put the regional innovation to the whole scale 謝謝大家 ! 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