【正文】 0:52:40,820 00:52:46,090我要講的第三件事是82800:52:46,090 00:52:53,530社會學家維維安娜澤利澤寫的一部關(guān)于82900:52:53,530 00:52:58,62019世紀壽險銷售情況的著作83000:52:58,620 00:53:03,220她發(fā)現(xiàn)19世紀的人們83100:53:03,220 00:53:06,370對購買壽險有很強的抵觸情緒83200:53:07,120 00:53:09,270她試著研究這一現(xiàn)象83300:53:09,270 00:53:12,130并試圖揭示 在當時壽險的重要性83400:53:12,130 00:53:13,740是如何獲得人們的認可的83500:53:14,360 00:53:15,830她的一項研究結(jié)論表明83600:53:15,830 00:53:19,480女性似乎對壽險非常抵觸83700:53:20,230 00:53:22,740我是指19世紀的女性83800:53:31,150 00:53:32,700她們?yōu)楹螘憛拤垭U呢83900:53:32,700 00:53:36,170你可能會覺得當時任何一名理性的婦女84000:53:36,170 00:53:40,120都會意識到他們丈夫很可能會在84100:53:40,120 00:53:43,880孩子長大之成人前去世84200:53:43,880 00:53:46,860那她們?yōu)槭裁床幌胭I壽險呢84300:53:46,860 00:53:50,130這是因為她發(fā)現(xiàn)當時的保險推銷員84400:53:50,130 00:53:51,890總是來到客戶家中84500:53:51,890 00:53:55,370并且希望通過介紹各種概念來推銷保險84600:53:55,370 00:53:57,170他們會說一些類似我之前講過的東西84700:53:57,170 00:53:59,430也許他們并不會給客戶寫二項分布函數(shù)84800:53:59,430 00:54:01,860但會向他們灌輸保險的理念84900:54:01,860 00:54:07,160但這看起來對19世紀的美國女性85000:54:07,160 00:54:08,810并不奏效85100:54:08,810 00:54:10,600我覺得不僅僅是美國85200:54:10,600 00:54:12,300全世界可能都面臨這樣的問題85300:54:12,300 00:54:16,170推銷員從女性那里得到的回答是85400:54:16,170 00:54:19,710你跟我講了一通概率之類的東西85500:54:19,710 00:54:21,630然后勸我...85600:54:21,630 00:54:25,090這聽起來似乎是在讓我去賭博85700:54:25,090 00:54:27,560如果我丈夫去世了 那我就贏了85800:54:28,500 00:54:31,320這太不對勁了85900:54:31,320 00:54:34,740其實我覺得 不少女人會這樣說86000:54:34,740 00:54:39,600我是個教徒 我覺得如果我拿我丈夫的86100:54:39,600 00:54:43,330性命去賭博 我會遭天譴的86200:54:44,060 00:54:47,450所以她可能就不會買保險86300:54:47,450 00:54:48,830這對她來說是不道德的86400:54:48,830 00:54:51,670她寧愿相信祈禱之類的事情86500:54:52,480 00:54:55,720這樣做根本沒法把保險賣給她們86600:54:55,720 00:54:59,150澤利澤發(fā)現(xiàn)有些壽險公司86700:54:59,150 00:55:02,370通過改變營銷思路克服了這個難題86800:55:02,370 00:55:04,300他們告訴自己的推銷員86900:55:04,300 00:55:07,960不要試圖給你的客戶講概率論87000:55:07,960 00:55:11,950你要做的是換個表達方式87100:55:11,950 00:55:16,470她提到 他們開始通過某種方式將自己87200:55:16,470 00:55:21,290裝扮成帶來福音的傳教士87300:55:21,290 00:55:23,220而這種福音就是保險87400:55:23,220 00:55:25,250他們會告訴這些女人87500:55:26,070 00:55:30,140如果你為你的丈夫購買了壽險87600:55:30,140 00:55:32,850那么萬一有意外發(fā)生87700:55:32,850 00:55:36,800你丈夫的在天之靈仍會保佑你渡過難關(guān)87800:55:38,920 00:55:44,060這聽起來不錯而且很有效 這些小把戲...87900:55:44,060 00:55:46,530這些看起來好像小把戲一般88000:55:46,530 00:55:49,330但實際上它們是技術(shù)性的進步88100:55:49,950 00:55:53,580隨著時間的推移 從事這一行的人們88200:55:53,580 00:56:02,190掌握了越來越多的迎合公眾期望的方法88300:56:02,190 00:56:05,720并最終說服他們購買保險88400:56:06,730 00:56:10,700我現(xiàn)在想講一下政府對保險業(yè)的監(jiān)管88500:56:10,700 00:56:15,480因為我說過這是保險中很重要的一個方面88600:56:16,350 00:56:19,580監(jiān)管機構(gòu)要顧及很多事情88700:56:20,450 00:56:23,550但保險業(yè)監(jiān)管機構(gòu)88800:56:23,550 00:56:27,700最為關(guān)心的是資本充足率88900:56:33,580 00:56:36,670如今 美國的保險業(yè)89000:56:36,670 00:56:39,310并不是由聯(lián)邦政府直接監(jiān)管89100:56:39,310 00:56:43,740而是由各個州的監(jiān)管機構(gòu)監(jiān)管89200:56:43,740 00:56:46,700所以要概括全美國的保險業(yè)監(jiān)管情況89300:56:46,700 00:56:48,220是很困難的89400:56:48,220 00:56:50,760為什么各個州要的監(jiān)管要分開呢89500:56:50,760 00:56:53,700因為從一開始就是分開的89600:56:53,700 00:56:56,530當時的聯(lián)邦政府還沒有介入監(jiān)管89700:56:56,530 00:56:58,380我們從來沒有過...89800:56:58,380 00:57:00,790實際上有一種說法 我們應該89900:57:00,790 00:57:03,180也許10年或20年內(nèi) 統(tǒng)一監(jiān)管能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)90000:57:03,880 00:57:06,570也有人認為應該建立國家層面的90100:57:06,570 00:57:08,090保險業(yè)監(jiān)管機構(gòu)90200:57:08,090 00:57:10,470但現(xiàn)在的情況仍是各州分開監(jiān)管90300:57:10,470 00:57:13,680這其實是美國保險業(yè)發(fā)展的一個障礙90400:57:13,680 00:57:15,960其他國家均實行國家統(tǒng)一監(jiān)管90500:57:15,960 00:57:18,040但美國卻把監(jiān)管權(quán)分給了各個州90600:57:18,040 00:57:20,250開辦保險公司是非常不容易的90700:57:20,250 00:57:23,740因為你必須同時滿足五十個州的監(jiān)管要求90800:57:23,740 00:57:25,860最重要的是90900:57:25,860 00:57:31,210他們指定了保險公司必須持有多少準備金91000:57:32,940 00:57:35,000因此他們...也就是說91100:57:35,000 00:57:37,860他們不放心讓保險公司按照二項式定理91200:57:37,860 00:57:41,560自己計算準備金要求91300:57:41,560 00:57:43,100他們想要確保91400:57:43,100 00:57:46,990即使保險公司遇上嚴重事件91500:57:46,990 00:57:48,700面臨大量的保單賠付91600:57:48,700 00:57:50,560他們?nèi)匀挥谐浞帜芰?1700:57:50,560 00:57:54,430來應付這種狀況91800:57:54,430 00:57:57,320也就是說準備金必須足夠多91900:57:58,110 00:58:02,120保險公司必須持有準備金92000:58:02,120 00:58:07,830可以提取更多準備金 這叫做法定盈余92100:58:08,840 00:58:11,170提取準備金就要做會計分錄92200:58:11,170 00:58:13,050由相關(guān)部門的規(guī)定 來提存一定量的準備金92300:58:13,050 00:58:16,520但是保險公司可以持有更多的準備金92400:58:18,010 00:58:20,520通常 多提存是為了92500:58:20,520 00:58:23,690保護他們自己以及投保人92600:58:23,690 00:58:26,190于是持有更多準備金92700:58:28,280 00:58:34,420有時候 你需要面對準備金的問題92800:58:37,350 00:58:39,840在討論這個之前我想先說說...92900:58:39,840 00:58:44,850我想講幾種類型的保險93000:58:44,850 00:58:46,360它們很重要93100:58:47,780 00:58:50,440不妨先講述下壽險93200:58:53,430 00:58:57,070我們討論的是幾種常見保單93300:58:57,070 00:59:02,270最簡單的壽險保單形式叫做定期人壽保險93400:59:03,820 00:59:07,730為了這種保險可以持續(xù)生效93500:59:07,730 00:59:09,960你每年都要繳納保費93600:59:09,960 00:59:12,390保費不產(chǎn)生現(xiàn)金價值93700:59:12,390 00:59:15,170這一年也許我會買這種保險93800:59:15,170 00:59:21,990但是如果覺得劃不來了 我可以停買93900:59:21,990 00:59:25,060或者在下一年續(xù)買94000:59:26,770 00:59:31,640終身人壽保險則更為復雜94100:59:31,640 00:59:35,940因為它會按照購買計劃產(chǎn)生現(xiàn)金價值94