【正文】 種各樣，且這些方法都已經(jīng)被考察證明。由這些方法得出的結(jié)果也各有不同。研究發(fā)現(xiàn)貿(mào)易與增長存在很強(qiáng)的正相關(guān)，雖然有些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家因根據(jù)不同的方法而存在分歧。本文將從二個方面來討論國際貿(mào)易作為“增長的引擎”并且提出了幾個問題。1. 出口帶動增長首先，研究促進(jìn)出口（外向型戰(zhàn)略）對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的作用是確定貿(mào)易重要性的一種方法。在這一戰(zhàn)略里，國家在現(xiàn)有的出口制成品中投入創(chuàng)新，但不減少初級產(chǎn)品在總的出口結(jié)構(gòu)中的重要性（ Cyper和Dietz， 1997年）。通過集中和有區(qū)別地生產(chǎn)出口產(chǎn)品，國家參與具有主要優(yōu)勢的產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易，從而不但獲得靜態(tài)利益而且將通過逐漸形成比較優(yōu)勢達(dá)到動態(tài)利益。動態(tài)利益可以刺激創(chuàng)新以及開拓更好的規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)從而促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長?？傊?，出口增長尤其是工業(yè)制成品的出口增長是非常重要的，甚至先于經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長。辛哈（ 1996 ）更加重視于截面研究，他考察了貿(mào)易平衡的時間序列，用出口進(jìn)口來解釋貿(mào)易增長導(dǎo)向。通過對亞洲國家19511990幾十年GDP的研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，貿(mào)易增長開放度[（出口進(jìn)口）/國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值]與增長率存在正相關(guān)性。這表明出口對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長具有重要貢獻(xiàn)。巴拉薩（ 1989年）認(rèn)為假如一個國家采用外向型工業(yè)化戰(zhàn)略，那么貿(mào)易尤其是出口對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的最優(yōu)效率將得到更好的提高。因為在這個戰(zhàn)略下，將更有可能確保貿(mào)易使資源得到更有效的利用。而那些采用內(nèi)向型工業(yè)化戰(zhàn)略的國家將限制了由增加出口增長帶來的效果。因為這種經(jīng)濟(jì)體下，用來生產(chǎn)工業(yè)制成品的國內(nèi)資源吸收能力受到高度保護(hù)限制。同樣， Asafu Adjaye和Chakraborty （ 1999 ）一致發(fā)現(xiàn)內(nèi)向型國家出口與實際輸出呈弱相關(guān)。他們?yōu)槌隹谔峁┝艘粋€超外生檢驗發(fā)現(xiàn)出口弱外生，這就暗示了內(nèi)向型戰(zhàn)略是無效的發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略。他們發(fā)現(xiàn)這些國家的出口產(chǎn)品仍舊以初級產(chǎn)品為主導(dǎo)，通過這個事實得出了不支持出口導(dǎo)向增長是錯誤的這一結(jié)論。如此，這些調(diào)查結(jié)果產(chǎn)生了清晰的印象就是促進(jìn)出口戰(zhàn)略是一個有效的發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略，因為在外向型戰(zhàn)略下國家可以制定靜態(tài)比較優(yōu)勢或走向更充滿活力和富有成果的經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域。2. 進(jìn)口對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的作用 第二種證明貿(mào)易積極作用的方法是檢驗進(jìn)口對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的作用。許多國家，特別是發(fā)展中國家為了改善貿(mào)易平衡以及外匯儲備不足的問題，嘗試過減少進(jìn)口。這些國家開始建立新的工業(yè)化使國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)品逐步取代消費(fèi)品進(jìn)口，這就是所謂的進(jìn)口替代工業(yè)化戰(zhàn)略。對此，為了與國外企業(yè)競爭，政府必須在世界價格下給這些新的進(jìn)口替代公司補(bǔ)貼或者通過強(qiáng)制實行各種進(jìn)口關(guān)稅以及關(guān)稅配額來限制進(jìn)口（ Hogendorn ， 1996年）。這一戰(zhàn)略可能會阻礙經(jīng)濟(jì)增長，因為它造成了價格扭曲。李（ 1995 ）表明，任何強(qiáng)加在資本貨物進(jìn)口的貿(mào)易扭曲都會增加進(jìn)口資本貨物的價格 ， 從而降低了經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率，迫使國內(nèi)的經(jīng)濟(jì)使用產(chǎn)品超過有效的水平。除此之外，保護(hù)企業(yè)的方法也不可能實現(xiàn)，因為許多中間產(chǎn)品進(jìn)口和資本貨物進(jìn)口是發(fā)展中國家生產(chǎn)出口的必須投入要素。限制進(jìn)口將導(dǎo)致出口扭曲，進(jìn)而減少增長率或者經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。因為進(jìn)口同樣對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長有貢獻(xiàn)，很早之前就有許多研究進(jìn)口增長對促進(jìn)出口的實證分析。省略進(jìn)口將得到拒絕出口導(dǎo)向型增長和虛假檢測，這是一個錯誤的檢驗結(jié)果。Lee (1995,)檢驗了資本進(jìn)口貨物對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的作用，發(fā)現(xiàn)進(jìn)口資本貨物比國內(nèi)的資本貨物具有較高的生產(chǎn)率。這個調(diào)查的關(guān)鍵之一是國外進(jìn)口要素是貿(mào)易和增長重要的決定性聯(lián)系。Riezman, Whiteman and Summers (1995)用實證模型計算研究了進(jìn)口對出口的作用。他們發(fā)現(xiàn)有些國家在解釋經(jīng)濟(jì)增長時顯示得特別強(qiáng)烈。共同調(diào)查檢驗顯示兩個變量之間存在長期的關(guān)系。使用預(yù)測誤差方差分解，他們發(fā)現(xiàn)出口導(dǎo)向型增長可以直接（進(jìn)口→出口→增長）和通過進(jìn)口間接（出口→進(jìn)口→增長）產(chǎn)生作用。 他們還提供測試持續(xù)時間的出口導(dǎo)向型增長。使用條件的線性反饋頻率，他們發(fā)現(xiàn)在一些國家出口帶動經(jīng)濟(jì)增長是一個長期過程。得知現(xiàn)在推廣出口促進(jìn)戰(zhàn)略將在8到16年有最強(qiáng)的效果。但是，在其他國家，出口的最高的影響力在短期內(nèi)， 即不少于4年。同樣， Asafu Adjaye和Chakraborty （ 1999年）也發(fā)現(xiàn)實際輸出，出口和進(jìn)口在內(nèi)向型戰(zhàn)略國家結(jié)合成整體這一證據(jù)。使用誤差修正模型，他們發(fā)現(xiàn)間接因果關(guān)系，即從出口到進(jìn)口，然后到實際產(chǎn)出。這指出了中間產(chǎn)品和資本貨物的進(jìn)口也是影響貿(mào)易對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長作用的關(guān)鍵因素。結(jié)合所有的研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，很明顯進(jìn)口是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的重要渠道，因此筆者建議購買一部分相對便宜的國外要素，貿(mào)易國的GDP可以增長的更快。此外，采取任何限制進(jìn)口的行為會對促進(jìn)出口產(chǎn)生不利影響的并造成經(jīng)濟(jì)增長大大減小。原文二On The Contributions of Import to The Economic Growth: A Theoretical Interpretation And Empirical Analysis The contributions of import trade to economic growth has failed to be given due importance and few studies are devoted to it. This essay elaborates on the contributions of import trade to economic growth both theoretically and empirically. Theoretically, the essay approaches it from four aspects, namely, offsetting short supply, alleviating trade friction, inducing domestic demand, and stimulating technical innovation. Empirically, the essay makes the cointegration analysis of the inner relationship between import trade and economic growth, based on statistics from 1978 to 2005, and the research shows that their relationship is long and stable dynamic equilibrium and that import trade greatly promotes China’s economic growth. Accordingly, some suggestions on related policies are put forward, including proper import expansion, optimization of import structure and realizing foreign trade balance. 1. A Theoretical Interpretation of the contributions of Import to China’s Economic Growth When evaluating the contributions of foreign trade to economic growth, people seem to be focusing only on the export. They believe that export or favorable balance of trade alone helps to promote the economic growth while import will offset this positive effect and they consider import as a negative factor of trade multiplier. As a result, they advocate the pursuit of trade surplus. Economic theories from Mercantilism (Gap Theory of Trade) to Keynesianism (Foreign Trade Multiplier Theory) almost all hold this view. In Chinese academic circles the study of the relationship between foreign trade and economic development is centered on export. A lot of documents are devoted to a micro and macro analysis of the interior mechanism and corresponding performance of Chinese export and net export’s promotion on economic growth. Besides, they offer an empirical analysis with econometric model. On the contrary, the study of import is paratively less conducted. In fact, import trade can remarkably promote economic growth. The evidence is as follows: Compensating the supply shortage With the rapid economic growth in China, domestic investment and consumer demand have expanded beyond the current domestic productivity and the current production supply is unable to meet the demand of advanced technology, which has resulted in supply bottleneck. Solving the supply bottleneck by importing the sources that the domestic markets are short of, key equipment and advanced technology is a major way of making the transformation from closed economy to open economy and enhancing a steady and constant economic growth in China. Since 1980s, the industrial materials China imported every year has been taking 40% to 50% of the total import. The ratio of the import volume of some raw materials of urgent shortage to the domestic production of related goods has been very high. The import of large volume of raw materials and resources has eased the pressure of limited domestic resources and pensate the shortage of domestic supply to a great degree, thus contributing to the rapid economic development in China. In China, a large quantity of the export products are manufactured on the basis of imported raw materials, key equipment and advanced technology. In such a case, more of such import will reduce the production costs of exported goods and improve the products quality so that the export petitiveness of China will be increased. In addition, more import means more demand for foreign exchange, which helps ease Yuan appreciation pressure and is favorable to export. Import is supportive of expanding foreign demand. In the eleventh fiveyear program, as economy accelerates, the supply of resources will constitute a more serious problem. Therefore, it’s significant that import issue be handled properly so as to ensure a steady su