【正文】 ：；1991年：；1992年：；1993年：；1994年：；1995年： ；1996年～；2005年：；2006年：；2007年：；2008年：。當(dāng)出口收入的增加集中到儲蓄傾向較高的居民手中，則出口的擴(kuò)大又會給其他部門的增長提供資金，提高投資水平。國家的貿(mào)易政策直接影響外貿(mào)對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的貢獻(xiàn)。第三，發(fā)展進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易必然帶來人員的交流、文化的傳播和思想的交換，從而對一國的政治、文化和社會進(jìn)步產(chǎn)生積極影響，反過來又促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展。第二，發(fā)展進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易，有利于促進(jìn)一國經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)的變動。一是出口部門往往能獲得較好的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益，能提高積累率，從而加速發(fā)展。這樣，資源得到合理配置，利用效率得到充分的提高。進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易主要通過影響資本積累、技術(shù)進(jìn)步、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、制度變遷促進(jìn)一國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長、增加就業(yè)和提高收入水平，這就是貿(mào)易的發(fā)展利益或動態(tài)利益 陳焰．國際貿(mào)易與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的機(jī)制條件論[M]．北京：經(jīng)濟(jì)科學(xué)出版社，2008：120130。 2008年，全省人均生產(chǎn)總值為42214元，按年平均匯率折算為6078美元，%。但是近幾年來高新技術(shù)產(chǎn)品出口額大幅度地提高，占出口商品的比重也越來越高。當(dāng)前世界正遭受金融危機(jī)影響，經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展速度放緩，我國整個外貿(mào)行業(yè)受到重大的沖擊。在此結(jié)論基礎(chǔ)上，提出了浙江省對外貿(mào)易發(fā)展的幾點(diǎn)建議。據(jù)海關(guān)統(tǒng)計1987年—2008年，浙江省的進(jìn)出口額出現(xiàn)了快速的增長，進(jìn)出口規(guī)模不斷擴(kuò)大，不管是進(jìn)口還是出口都在逐年迅速提高。全省GDP總量一次次跨上新的臺階。 2 進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的作用機(jī)理和實現(xiàn)條件進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易對一國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的促進(jìn)作用取決于進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易增長效應(yīng)的作用機(jī)制能否得到充分發(fā)揮，而各種內(nèi)外條件的具備是貿(mào)易的增長機(jī)制得以實現(xiàn)的根本保證。第二，隨著出口貿(mào)易的發(fā)展，出口企業(yè)不僅面臨來自國內(nèi)企業(yè)的競爭，同時面臨著世界市場范圍內(nèi)的競爭。第三，技術(shù)和設(shè)備的進(jìn)口將直接促進(jìn)國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)的發(fā)展和生產(chǎn)率的提高，其作用類似于創(chuàng)新對增長的刺激，而且還節(jié)省了創(chuàng)新的成本 張二震．國際貿(mào)易的發(fā)展利益及其實現(xiàn)機(jī)制[N]．南京大學(xué)學(xué)報，19950425（3）．。在封閉經(jīng)濟(jì)條件下，企業(yè)往往滿足于現(xiàn)有的市場，積累擴(kuò)大再生產(chǎn)的動力不足。而在國內(nèi)需求很大，但缺乏必要的資源和條件時，就適當(dāng)進(jìn)口。一個國家的市場經(jīng)濟(jì)完善程度決定著，該國對外貿(mào)易的發(fā)展。薩繆爾森認(rèn)為發(fā)展對外貿(mào)易會使出口行業(yè)(價格上升行業(yè))中密集使用的生產(chǎn)要素的報酬提高，而使進(jìn)口競爭行業(yè)(價格下跌行業(yè))中密集使用的生產(chǎn)要素的報酬降低。用國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值GDP表示經(jīng)濟(jì)增長水平， EX表示出口額，IM表示進(jìn)口額,T表示進(jìn)出口總額。變量㏑T、㏑EX、㏑IM和㏑GDP之間的相關(guān)關(guān)系較強(qiáng)（相關(guān)系數(shù)均接近于1）。筆者采用 ADF 檢驗來確定兩個變量的平穩(wěn)情況,該檢驗通過以下三個模型完成:模型1： 模型2：模型3： 模型1表示序列中不包含常數(shù)項和趨勢項，模型2表示序列中包含常數(shù)項不包括趨勢項，模型3表示序列中包含了常數(shù)項和趨勢項。變量ADF值滯后項臨界值是否平穩(wěn)LnGDP1＊否lnEX1＊否LnIM1＊否LnGDP3＊＊是LnEX1＊是LnIM8＊是注： 滯后項的選擇標(biāo)準(zhǔn)是以AIC和SC最小為準(zhǔn)則表示變量的一階差分 數(shù)據(jù)來源：根據(jù)本文表四數(shù)據(jù)利用Eviews計算所得 ＊表示5%臨界值為，＊＊表示10%臨界值協(xié)整是對非平穩(wěn)經(jīng)濟(jì)變量長期均衡關(guān)系的統(tǒng)計描述。從論文的選題、提綱的擬定到初稿的撰寫以及一系列地修改，到現(xiàn)在定稿的完成，無不凝結(jié)著導(dǎo)師的心血。我寄期望自己在以后的人生路上做到優(yōu)秀，這是對他們最好的回報。如果一國在開展貿(mào)易前存在閑置的資源(產(chǎn)品、自然資源、勞動力和資本等)，這些剩余的資源可用來生產(chǎn)剩余產(chǎn)品以供出口，這樣貿(mào)易就為本國的剩余產(chǎn)品提供了“出路”。到十世紀(jì)三十年代由經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家Robertson提出，Nurkse (1953)進(jìn)行補(bǔ)充和發(fā)展的對外貿(mào)易是“經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的發(fā)動機(jī)”學(xué)說則是從動態(tài)角度闡述貿(mào)易利益的典型理論。只有把大家的成果都結(jié)合起來才能更好地看外貿(mào)對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的貢獻(xiàn)。促進(jìn)出口可以通過鼓勵生產(chǎn)出口貨物或者允許積累外匯而直接形成經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展，而外匯可以用來購買出口不可或缺的資本投入進(jìn)口貨物。在這一戰(zhàn)略里，國家在現(xiàn)有的出口制成品中投入創(chuàng)新，但不減少初級產(chǎn)品在總的出口結(jié)構(gòu)中的重要性（ Cyper和Dietz， 1997年）。因為在這個戰(zhàn)略下，將更有可能確保貿(mào)易使資源得到更有效的利用。許多國家，特別是發(fā)展中國家為了改善貿(mào)易平衡以及外匯儲備不足的問題，嘗試過減少進(jìn)口。省略進(jìn)口將得到拒絕出口導(dǎo)向型增長和虛假檢測，這是一個錯誤的檢驗結(jié)果。使用條件的線性反饋頻率，他們發(fā)現(xiàn)在一些國家出口帶動經(jīng)濟(jì)增長是一個長期過程。原文二On The Contributions of Import to The Economic Growth: A Theoretical Interpretation And Empirical Analysis The contributions of import trade to economic growth has failed to be given due importance and few studies are devoted to it. This essay elaborates on the contributions of import trade to economic growth both theoretically and empirically. Theoretically, the essay approaches it from four aspects, namely, offsetting short supply, alleviating trade friction, inducing domestic demand, and stimulating technical innovation. Empirically, the essay makes the cointegration analysis of the inner relationship between import trade and economic growth, based on statistics from 1978 to 2005, and the research shows that their relationship is long and stable dynamic equilibrium and that import trade greatly promotes China’s economic growth. Accordingly, some suggestions on related policies are put forward, including proper import expansion, optimization of import structure and realizing foreign trade balance. 1. A Theoretical Interpretation of the contributions of Import to China’s Economic Growth When evaluating the contributions of foreign trade to economic growth, people seem to be focusing only on the export. They believe that export or favorable balance of trade alone helps to promote the economic growth while import will offset this positive effect and they consider import as a negative factor of trade multiplier. As a result, they advocate the pursuit of trade surplus. Economic theories from Mercantilism (Gap Theory of Trade) to Keynesianism (Foreign Trade Multiplier Theory) almost all hold this view. In Chinese academic circles the study of the relationship between foreign trade and economic development is centered on export. A lot of documents are devoted to a micro and macro analysis of the interior mechanism and corresponding performance of Chinese export and net export’s promotion on economic growth. Besides, they offer an empirical analysis with econometric model. On the contrary, the study of import is paratively less conducted. In fact, import trade can remarkably promote economic growth. The evidence is as follows: Compensating the supply shortage With the rapid economic growth in China, domestic investment and consumer demand have expanded beyond the current domestic productivity and the current production supply is unable to meet the demand of advanced technology, which has resulted in supply bottleneck. Solving the supply bottleneck by importing the sources that the domestic markets are short of, key equipment and advanced technology is a major way of making the transformation from closed economy to open economy and enhancing a steady and constant economic growth in China. Since 1980s, the industrial materials China imported every year has been taking 40% to 50% of the total import. The ratio of the import volume of some raw materials of urgent shortage to the domestic production of related goods has been very high. The import of large volume of raw materials and resources has eased the pressure of limited domestic resources and pensate the shortage of domestic supply to a great degree, thus contributing to the rapid economic development in China. In China, a large quantity of the export products are manufactured on the basis of imported raw materials, key equipment and advanced technology. In such a case, more of such import will reduce the production costs of exported goods and improve the products quality so that the export petitiveness of China will be increased. In addition, more import means more demand for foreign exchange, which helps ease Yuan appreciation pressure and is favorable to export. Import is supportive of expanding foreign demand. In the eleventh fiveyear program, as economy accelerates, the supply of resources will consti