【正文】 Interest rate利率 ? Incorrect interest rate projections can severely affect the ability of the project revenue to service debt by 如果在預測中使用了不正確的利率，項目收入是否有償還債務的能力將會受到嚴重影響。 ? Inflation rate通貨膨脹率 ? Risk allocation風險分配 ? Cash flow projection現(xiàn)金流預測 Based on: The Law and Business of International Project Finance, Scott L. Hoffman, 2022 Collateral抵押 I ? The ―blanket‖ lien統(tǒng)括留置權(quán) ? The blanket lien covers all the assets of the project pany, including real (unmovable) and personal (movable), tangible and 目公司的所有資產(chǎn)，包括不動產(chǎn)，個人（可移動）資產(chǎn)，有形和無形資產(chǎn)。 ? Project cash flow現(xiàn)金流預測 ? A security interest in the cash flows generated by the project under longterm offtake ? Acplished through a cash collateral account in which offtake purchaser pays all payments into the account established by the 款項都支付到由借款方設(shè)立的現(xiàn)金抵押賬戶中 ? Offshore accounts/escrow accounts離岸賬戶 /代管帳戶 ? Ownership interests所有者權(quán)益 ? Pledge of ownership interests所有者權(quán)益抵押 ? Voting trust表決權(quán)信托 ? Negative pledges限制抵押 ? An agreement under which the project pany will not create, directly or indirectly, any security interest, lien or encumbrance in its assets for the benefit of any other ，項目公司的資產(chǎn)不會產(chǎn)生直接或者間接的擔保利益，留置權(quán)，置押權(quán)被其他公司享受到。 Based on: The Law and Business of International Project Finance, Scott L. Hoffman, 2022 Collateral抵押 II ? Personal (movable) property個人（可移動）資產(chǎn) ? Intangible assets有形資產(chǎn) ? Permits, licenses and concessions許可權(quán)，許可證，特許權(quán) ? Contracts合同 ? Insurance proceeds保險收益 ? Surety bonds保證擔保 ? Guarantees擔保 ? Liquidated damages違約金 ? Political risk insurance政治風險保險 ? Accounts賬戶 ? Disbursement agreement分銷協(xié)議 Based on: The Law and Business of International Project Finance, Scott L. Hoffman, 2022 Collateral抵押 III ? Review the contracts to verify that they are each assignable under the country’s law. 審閱合同核實他們是符合當國法律 ? In the event of a foreclosure, the contracts will only have value to the lender if they can be assumed by the lender and later assigned to a purchaser of the ，如果合同只有對出借方有價值 ? Other issues其他問題 ? Types of liens allowed允許的留置權(quán)種類 ? Local formalities當?shù)爻绦? ? Denomination of lien in local currency當?shù)刎泿诺牧糁脵?quán) ? Priority of lien (perfection)留置權(quán)優(yōu)先權(quán) ? Enforcement強制 ? Foreclosure不可抗力 Based on: The Law and Business of International Project Finance, Scott L. Hoffman, 2022 Equity and Dividends 所有者權(quán)益和股利 ? Timing and certainty of equity contribution股權(quán)出資的時間和可能性 ? A part of equity contributions to the project pany may be planned after the financial closing. Some funds may be injected with construction drawdowns, or await investment until project pletion. 對項目公司的股權(quán)出資可能會在財務結(jié)算之后進行計劃，一些資金可能在施工的暫停階段或者等到項目結(jié)束時投入。 ? Risk mitigation風險緩解 ? Condition precedents in loan agreement借款合同中的前提條件 ? Covenants in loan agreement借款合同中的財務約定事項 ? Some conditions for dividend payments股利支付的幾種情況 ? Requirement to replenish before dividend payments在股利支付 ? Reserve (contingent) account儲備（應急）賬戶 ? Offshore account離岸賬戶 ? Financial covenants: a financial covenant limiting the dividend payments to a certain level財務約定事項：財務約定事項會限制股利支付程度 Based on: The Law and Business of International Project Finance, Scott L. Hoffman, 2022 Permit/License/Concession 許可證 /執(zhí)照 /特許權(quán) ? Status情況 ? Permits already obtained and in full force and effect已經(jīng)取得了許可證并且全部有效 ? Permits routinely and mandatorially granted on application and fulfillment of applicable criteria and that would not normally be obtained before construction (before loan agreement)在申請和滿足申請條件后，許可證按照常規(guī)或者強制的給與，而在施工開始前一般不能得到（在簽訂借款合同前） ? Other than above其他 ? Risks風險 ? Unable to operate/termination of project無法經(jīng)營項目 /項目結(jié)束 ? Damage payments損壞賠償 ? Different policies between central and local governments中央和地方重負的不同政策 ? Permit vocation, additional permit requirements許可資格，附加許可條件 ? Risk mitigation風險緩解 ? Integrated management of all necessary permits: apply, obtain, maintenance, renew processes所有需要的許可證的綜合管理：應用，取得，維護，更新程序 Based on: The Law and Business of International Project Finance, Scott L. Hoffman, 2022 . Stress Testing/Simulation 壓力測試 /仿真模擬 Basics of Risk Analysis Techniques 風險分析工具基礎(chǔ) I ? Three stages of risk analysis techniques風險分析工具的三階段 1. Sensitivity Analysis敏感性分析 : a linear relation between a cash flow factor and NPV現(xiàn)金流變量與凈現(xiàn)值的線性關(guān)系 2. Scenario Analysis情景分析 : estimate probabilities of each individual cash flow on the basis of basecase, bestcase, and worstcase scenario, which in turn provides mean and standard diviation of NPV 按照基本情況，最好情況，最差情況三種假定下，預計每個現(xiàn)金流的可能性，這樣就可以得出凈現(xiàn)值的平均和標準偏差 3. MonteCarlo Simulation蒙特卡羅模擬 : obtain expected NPV and standard deviation from randomly selected scenarios based on the probability distribution of each cash flow factors根據(jù)每種現(xiàn)金流要素的可能性分布隨機選擇情景，得出預期凈現(xiàn)值和標準偏差 Sensitivity Analysis敏感性分析 I ? Method方法 ? Sensitivity analysis is a risk analysis technique that tells how much NPV will change in response to given changes in one cash flow factor with other factors held constant. 敏感性分析是一種風險分析方法，如果一個現(xiàn)金流要素變化，而且他要素保持不變的情況下，凈現(xiàn)值會如何變化。 5% 20% 15% 10% 5% 10% 15% 20% Deviation from BaseCase Value (%) NPV ($) $ 0 0% Unit sales price 銷售單價 NPV based on the originally estimated unit sales price 最初預計的單價產(chǎn)生的凈現(xiàn)值 NPV when unit sales price goes up by 15%單價上升 15%時的凈現(xiàn)值 NPV when unit sales price goes down by 20% 單價降低 20%時的凈現(xiàn)值 Based on: Financial Management, Eugene F. Brigham and Michael C. Ehrhardt, 2022 Sensitivity Analysis敏感性分析 II ? The slopes of the lines indicate how sensitive NPV is to changes in each individual cash ? Relatively small error in estimating individual cash flow with steeper slope leads to a large error in estimating project’s 的單個現(xiàn)金流的估計有相對較小的偏差，也會導致項目凈現(xiàn)值的估計結(jié)果存在較大誤差。 5% 20% 15% 10% 5% 10% 15% 20% Deviation from BaseCase Value (%) NPV ($) $ 0 0% Unit sales price單價 E