【正文】 Interest rate利率 ? Incorrect interest rate projections can severely affect the ability of the project revenue to service debt by 如果在預(yù)測中使用了不正確的利率，項(xiàng)目收入是否有償還債務(wù)的能力將會受到嚴(yán)重影響。 ? Inflation rate通貨膨脹率 ? Risk allocation風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分配 ? Cash flow projection現(xiàn)金流預(yù)測 Based on: The Law and Business of International Project Finance, Scott L. Hoffman, 2022 Collateral抵押 I ? The ―blanket‖ lien統(tǒng)括留置權(quán) ? The blanket lien covers all the assets of the project pany, including real (unmovable) and personal (movable), tangible and 目公司的所有資產(chǎn)，包括不動(dòng)產(chǎn)，個(gè)人（可移動(dòng)）資產(chǎn)，有形和無形資產(chǎn)。 ? Project cash flow現(xiàn)金流預(yù)測 ? A security interest in the cash flows generated by the project under longterm offtake ? Acplished through a cash collateral account in which offtake purchaser pays all payments into the account established by the 款項(xiàng)都支付到由借款方設(shè)立的現(xiàn)金抵押賬戶中 ? Offshore accounts/escrow accounts離岸賬戶 /代管帳戶 ? Ownership interests所有者權(quán)益 ? Pledge of ownership interests所有者權(quán)益抵押 ? Voting trust表決權(quán)信托 ? Negative pledges限制抵押 ? An agreement under which the project pany will not create, directly or indirectly, any security interest, lien or encumbrance in its assets for the benefit of any other ，項(xiàng)目公司的資產(chǎn)不會產(chǎn)生直接或者間接的擔(dān)保利益，留置權(quán)，置押權(quán)被其他公司享受到。 Based on: The Law and Business of International Project Finance, Scott L. Hoffman, 2022 Collateral抵押 II ? Personal (movable) property個(gè)人（可移動(dòng)）資產(chǎn) ? Intangible assets有形資產(chǎn) ? Permits, licenses and concessions許可權(quán)，許可證，特許權(quán) ? Contracts合同 ? Insurance proceeds保險(xiǎn)收益 ? Surety bonds保證擔(dān)保 ? Guarantees擔(dān)保 ? Liquidated damages違約金 ? Political risk insurance政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)保險(xiǎn) ? Accounts賬戶 ? Disbursement agreement分銷協(xié)議 Based on: The Law and Business of International Project Finance, Scott L. Hoffman, 2022 Collateral抵押 III ? Review the contracts to verify that they are each assignable under the country’s law. 審閱合同核實(shí)他們是符合當(dāng)國法律 ? In the event of a foreclosure, the contracts will only have value to the lender if they can be assumed by the lender and later assigned to a purchaser of the ，如果合同只有對出借方有價(jià)值 ? Other issues其他問題 ? Types of liens allowed允許的留置權(quán)種類 ? Local formalities當(dāng)?shù)爻绦? ? Denomination of lien in local currency當(dāng)?shù)刎泿诺牧糁脵?quán) ? Priority of lien (perfection)留置權(quán)優(yōu)先權(quán) ? Enforcement強(qiáng)制 ? Foreclosure不可抗力 Based on: The Law and Business of International Project Finance, Scott L. Hoffman, 2022 Equity and Dividends 所有者權(quán)益和股利 ? Timing and certainty of equity contribution股權(quán)出資的時(shí)間和可能性 ? A part of equity contributions to the project pany may be planned after the financial closing. Some funds may be injected with construction drawdowns, or await investment until project pletion. 對項(xiàng)目公司的股權(quán)出資可能會在財(cái)務(wù)結(jié)算之后進(jìn)行計(jì)劃，一些資金可能在施工的暫停階段或者等到項(xiàng)目結(jié)束時(shí)投入。 ? Risk mitigation風(fēng)險(xiǎn)緩解 ? Condition precedents in loan agreement借款合同中的前提條件 ? Covenants in loan agreement借款合同中的財(cái)務(wù)約定事項(xiàng) ? Some conditions for dividend payments股利支付的幾種情況 ? Requirement to replenish before dividend payments在股利支付 ? Reserve (contingent) account儲備（應(yīng)急）賬戶 ? Offshore account離岸賬戶 ? Financial covenants: a financial covenant limiting the dividend payments to a certain level財(cái)務(wù)約定事項(xiàng)：財(cái)務(wù)約定事項(xiàng)會限制股利支付程度 Based on: The Law and Business of International Project Finance, Scott L. Hoffman, 2022 Permit/License/Concession 許可證 /執(zhí)照 /特許權(quán) ? Status情況 ? Permits already obtained and in full force and effect已經(jīng)取得了許可證并且全部有效 ? Permits routinely and mandatorially granted on application and fulfillment of applicable criteria and that would not normally be obtained before construction (before loan agreement)在申請和滿足申請條件后，許可證按照常規(guī)或者強(qiáng)制的給與，而在施工開始前一般不能得到（在簽訂借款合同前） ? Other than above其他 ? Risks風(fēng)險(xiǎn) ? Unable to operate/termination of project無法經(jīng)營項(xiàng)目 /項(xiàng)目結(jié)束 ? Damage payments損壞賠償 ? Different policies between central and local governments中央和地方重負(fù)的不同政策 ? Permit vocation, additional permit requirements許可資格，附加許可條件 ? Risk mitigation風(fēng)險(xiǎn)緩解 ? Integrated management of all necessary permits: apply, obtain, maintenance, renew processes所有需要的許可證的綜合管理：應(yīng)用，取得，維護(hù)，更新程序 Based on: The Law and Business of International Project Finance, Scott L. Hoffman, 2022 . Stress Testing/Simulation 壓力測試 /仿真模擬 Basics of Risk Analysis Techniques 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析工具基礎(chǔ) I ? Three stages of risk analysis techniques風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析工具的三階段 1. Sensitivity Analysis敏感性分析 : a linear relation between a cash flow factor and NPV現(xiàn)金流變量與凈現(xiàn)值的線性關(guān)系 2. Scenario Analysis情景分析 : estimate probabilities of each individual cash flow on the basis of basecase, bestcase, and worstcase scenario, which in turn provides mean and standard diviation of NPV 按照基本情況，最好情況，最差情況三種假定下，預(yù)計(jì)每個(gè)現(xiàn)金流的可能性，這樣就可以得出凈現(xiàn)值的平均和標(biāo)準(zhǔn)偏差 3. MonteCarlo Simulation蒙特卡羅模擬 : obtain expected NPV and standard deviation from randomly selected scenarios based on the probability distribution of each cash flow factors根據(jù)每種現(xiàn)金流要素的可能性分布隨機(jī)選擇情景，得出預(yù)期凈現(xiàn)值和標(biāo)準(zhǔn)偏差 Sensitivity Analysis敏感性分析 I ? Method方法 ? Sensitivity analysis is a risk analysis technique that tells how much NPV will change in response to given changes in one cash flow factor with other factors held constant. 敏感性分析是一種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析方法，如果一個(gè)現(xiàn)金流要素變化，而且他要素保持不變的情況下，凈現(xiàn)值會如何變化。 5% 20% 15% 10% 5% 10% 15% 20% Deviation from BaseCase Value (%) NPV ($) $ 0 0% Unit sales price 銷售單價(jià) NPV based on the originally estimated unit sales price 最初預(yù)計(jì)的單價(jià)產(chǎn)生的凈現(xiàn)值 NPV when unit sales price goes up by 15%單價(jià)上升 15%時(shí)的凈現(xiàn)值 NPV when unit sales price goes down by 20% 單價(jià)降低 20%時(shí)的凈現(xiàn)值 Based on: Financial Management, Eugene F. Brigham and Michael C. Ehrhardt, 2022 Sensitivity Analysis敏感性分析 II ? The slopes of the lines indicate how sensitive NPV is to changes in each individual cash ? Relatively small error in estimating individual cash flow with steeper slope leads to a large error in estimating project’s 的單個(gè)現(xiàn)金流的估計(jì)有相對較小的偏差，也會導(dǎo)致項(xiàng)目凈現(xiàn)值的估計(jì)結(jié)果存在較大誤差。 5% 20% 15% 10% 5% 10% 15% 20% Deviation from BaseCase Value (%) NPV ($) $ 0 0% Unit sales price單價(jià) E