【正文】 政策時應(yīng)當(dāng)明確目標(biāo)，必須避免貨幣政策本身成為一種沖擊。另外應(yīng)當(dāng)在立法層次上強(qiáng)調(diào)價格穩(wěn)定的重要性，以及在貨幣政策決策時 采取透明的方式。這些都有助于中央銀行“信譽(yù)”的建立，也會有助于在制度層面上穩(wěn)定私人部門的預(yù)期。四、在明確目標(biāo)明的基礎(chǔ)上，中央銀行還應(yīng)當(dāng)綜合分析各種因素。由于通貨膨脹是各種復(fù)雜因素相互作用的結(jié)果，因此不能僅僅依靠單一經(jīng)濟(jì)變量的對應(yīng)關(guān)系來進(jìn)行決。 試對菲利普斯在我國貨幣政策中的應(yīng)用提出建議。 （ 1）我國存在菲利普斯曲線體現(xiàn)的通脹率與失業(yè)率的替代關(guān)系 。 ① 根據(jù)上面的分析可以看到，在我國宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策調(diào)整幅度較小、經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境較為穩(wěn)定的時期，存在著較為明顯的菲利普斯曲線關(guān)系。模型檢驗的結(jié)果亦是如此。在經(jīng)濟(jì)波動較小 的年份，曲線的擬合度較好，通貨膨脹率與失業(yè)率之間的替代關(guān)系較為明顯。 ② 分段擬合的曲線模型顯示，后一周期的曲線斜率高于前一周期，相同的失業(yè)率水平下需要保持高于上一周期的通貨膨脹率與之相應(yīng)，即欲創(chuàng)造更多的就業(yè)機(jī)會需要付出較前幾輪更高通貨膨脹率的代價。這是新經(jīng)濟(jì)的轉(zhuǎn)變帶給我們的經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會難題，也使得我國本來就非常嚴(yán)峻的就業(yè)壓力更加緊張。 （ 2）短期的菲利普斯曲線失靈具有時代特殊性 ① 市場機(jī)制不完善，國家干預(yù)較強(qiáng) 改革開放之初，國家政策因素對曲線的走向干擾較強(qiáng)，因此 19791980 年我國菲利普斯曲線的走向了發(fā)生 較大程度的變形。 ② 轉(zhuǎn)型時期產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的大幅調(diào)整 我國從上世紀(jì) 80 年代大力發(fā)展高投入、低產(chǎn)出、高損耗、低效率的粗放型產(chǎn)業(yè)到 90 年代末向集約型產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)變，逐步實現(xiàn)產(chǎn)業(yè)的全面升級，并且加大了對綠色環(huán)保、能源節(jié)約等產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展可持續(xù)性的關(guān)注程度，控制了高消耗低產(chǎn)出產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展。 （ 3）我國菲利普斯曲線短期與長期走勢相輔相成、相互影響 政策建議 （ 1）保持適度 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長以緩解嚴(yán)重的就業(yè)壓力 1997 年以來，我國通貨膨脹水平一直處在 5%的警戒線之下，甚至出現(xiàn)了通貨緊縮的現(xiàn)象，雖然近年又有上升趨向，始終沒有大的波 動出現(xiàn)。這主要是與我國宏觀調(diào)控手段的多樣化和日 漸成熟的政策搭配相關(guān)的。 1991 年以來我國失業(yè)率一直處于上升之中。隱性失業(yè)排放的繼續(xù)、農(nóng)民工進(jìn)城規(guī)模的擴(kuò)大等必然造成更大的就業(yè)壓力。因此我們認(rèn)為現(xiàn)階段應(yīng)該保持適度的通貨膨脹率和穩(wěn)定高速的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長，以創(chuàng)造更多的就業(yè)機(jī)會。 （ 2）大力發(fā)展集約型勞動密集產(chǎn)業(yè) 大力發(fā)展集約型勞動密集產(chǎn)業(yè)，以降低菲利普斯曲線在新一輪的斜率。根據(jù)我們所建立的我國菲利普斯曲線的走向模型可以看出，我國菲利普斯曲線走向的斜率是大于前一周期的，這代表著欲降低相同水平的失業(yè)率，后一周期必 須付出高于上一周期的通脹率與之對應(yīng)。因此，國家政策的調(diào)整應(yīng)該考慮如何降低下一輪曲線的斜率，以使得相同通脹率的同時帶來更多的失業(yè)率下降。我們認(rèn)為，應(yīng)該在大力發(fā)展現(xiàn)代化產(chǎn)業(yè)的同時，鼓勵和扶持集約型勞動密集產(chǎn)業(yè)，這樣，在獲得產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級的同時，可以創(chuàng)造更多的就業(yè)機(jī)會。 （ 3）繼續(xù)進(jìn)行有效的財政和貨幣政策干預(yù) 從我國 1998－ 2021 年刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)方案和 2021 年經(jīng)濟(jì)啟動方案來看，短期和長期菲利普斯曲線中失業(yè)與通貨膨脹確實存在替代關(guān)系，證明我國政策干預(yù)是有效的。 菲利普斯曲線在我國現(xiàn)階段的應(yīng)用前景 。 Visafree policy brings Chengdu biz, tourism boost. Making national headlines several times, Chengdu39。s 72hour visafree policy has attracted wide attention from both Chinese and foreign experts and businessmen since it took effect on Sept 1 last year. The program permits citizens from 51 countries and regions including the United States, Australia, Canada and Japan who have valid visas and flight tickets to a third country to spend three days in the city. The capital of Sichuan province is the first city in the western region of China to offer foreign tourists a threeday visa and the fourth nationwide to adopt the policy following Shanghai, Beijing and Guangzhou. Li Zhiyong, deputy dean of the tourism institute at Sichuan University, said the move contribu tes to a large increase in the number of overseas tourists and raises the city39。s level of internationalization. The policy will also bring direct economic revenue, Li said. Chengdu has many cultural legacies and is also a paradise for panda lovers with the world39。s largest breeding and research center. Three days are long enough for foreign visitors to visit those iconic tourist spots, he noted. The city is home to the remains of the Jin sha civilization that dates back more than 3,000 years as well as the Qing cheng Mountains and the Du jiang yan irrigation system. Qing cheng has long been recognized as the birthplace of Taoism, China39。s ancient indigenous religion, while Du jiang yan is considered to be the oldes t functioning watercontrol project in the world. Chengdu ranked third in tourist facilities, management and services among 60 Chinese cities in a customer satisfactio n survey released last year. But, Li added that efforts are still needed to develop more tourism products, improve English services and provide accurate translation of traffic signs and scenic billboards. Zhao Yun, chairwoman of British Chamber of Commerce Southwest China, told China Daily that his colleagues found the policy very co nvenient. A British client once flew here and stayed for just one day to check her ordered goods, she said. Zhao was born in Shanxi province, but she has lived in Chengdu for more than 10 years. My life was like a running race moving from place to place. I also lived in Beijing and Shanghai before, she said. But Chengdu is a place that you never want to leave once settling down. It is now my second hometown, she said. If the environment is further improved, the city will attract mo re people to visit and live, with the 72hour visafree policy and pelling conditions in transportation, culture, climate and cuisine, he said. Foreigners also gave positive feedback on the policy. A spokesman from Dell Inc said the pany has a global hub of operation in Chengdu, so the threeday visa has an immediate and positive influence on the pany39。s business development. Rudy Buttignol, president of the public broadcasting pany in British Columbia, Canada, sa id his work requires frequent travel to Chengdu and the policy makes the trips easier. Data from the city39。s public security bureau shows some 100 foreign visitors enjoyed the 72hour policy by the end of March, most of them from the United States, the United Kingdom and Germany. Chengdu also reported robust growth in its overall tourist industry last year. Official statistics show that it received some 150 million tourists last year, an increase of 28 percent from 2021. Around million came from abroad, an increase of 12 percent. Total revenue from tourism surpassed 133 billion yuan ($). During his visit to Kazakhstan in September, Chinese President Xi Jinping proposed that China and Central Asia join hands to build a Silk Road economic belt to boost cooperation. The idea has been widely echoed in Central Asian countries, being an encouraging blueprint for Chinese areas along the Silk Road that has linked Asia and Europe for more than 2,000 years. In the next three weeks, China Daily reporters will travel through the belt in China and in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkey. They will show the progress and expectations of the countries, businesses and peoples on the route. Shaanxi the start of the ancient Silk Road has positioned itself as the new starting point for the development of the Silk Road Economic Belt, which will strengthen China39。s cooperation with Central Asian countries, a senior official said. Shaanxi Governor Lou Qinjian said the province is fresh, rich