全球不平衡及其中國的對策余永定,2007年-資料下載頁
2025-05-12 04:39本頁面
【正文】 ng run （詳見下頁） ? Industrial policy: elemination of preferential policy towards FDI and exports ? Structural reforms to boast domestic consumption ? Allow rmb to revalue with appropriate pace (the export sector bears some burden) ? In the short run ? Continue to sterilize, further increase reserve requirments (the banking sector bears some burden) ? Interest rates can be increased (the real sector bears some burden) ? Strengthening capital control, if we wish the above mentioned policy to be effective The objective of short run policy is providing more breathing time for achieving long run objecitive of rebanlancing the economy 第二道防線 : role of banks in maintaining financial stability ? Banks should be resilient in face of the PBOC’s sterilization ? Banks should act prudently in face of the global excessive liquidity （日本） ? Banks should be resilient in face of capital flight （香港） To achieve the above mentioned objectives, the restructuring of the banking sector is a necessary condition. The restructuring of the financial system, especially , the banking system is the most important acheivement China has achieved after the Asian crisis China has all the problems that the rest of Asia has, and worse, with its financial system ? Overbanking is serious ? Equities are much more preferred assets to bonds ? Among bonds, the share of Corporate bonds is very small （見下圖） 中國銀行改革的成效 ? Restructuring of the banking system ? NPLs (now is %) ? Capital adequacy (8%) ? CBRC ? Corporate governmance ? IPO $42 billion ? Consolidation of stock markets ? Make all shares tradable ? Share price has recovered ? Developing its bond markets, but pace is slow, because other more urgent concerns ? 其它關(guān)注是什么？ 成效到底如何？改革的基本戰(zhàn)略是否會成功 ? 經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢惡化時，銀行是否能維持良好的狀態(tài)？ . 第三道防線 : 加強(qiáng)跨境流動的監(jiān)管 ? Effectiveness (BIS, Ma and McCauley) ? Leaky many in China think it is not worth efforts to patch it up ? But still effective ? 嚴(yán)進(jìn)寬出 , questionable. ? Last resort of China’s financial stability ? The key to China’s success during the Asian crisis ? It will continue to be so in the forseeable future 資本外逃導(dǎo)致危機(jī)的可能性 ? China’s household saving deposits amount to 17 trillion Yuan (= $ trillion) and account for 85 percent of GDP in 2021. ? supposing that households suddenly decided that they should hold 20 percent of their savings in the foreign assets, the total amount capital outflows will amount to $ 400 billion. ? China’s FDI stock 500 billion and the corresponding investment ine outflows can be as high as $50 billion$100 billion ? China’s balance of foreign borrowing is $305 billion ? $169 billion shortterm ? If capital flows reverse, due to failure in macreoeconomic management. The Fragility of the banking system and the covertability of RMB means banlance of payments crisis, currency crisis, financial crisis and economic crisis ? Serious works need to be done, by losening control of capita outflows will not discourage speculative capital inflows ? If China will make a fatal mistake in the next 5 years, the mistake will be the prematured abandon of capital control aimed at reducing RMB appreciation pressure, before it has pleted its economic reform. How to prevent the worst scenario from happening Caveat ? Over the past twent five years, I have learnt to be optimistic about the Chinese economy. ? Each time China muddled through, do not bet on China’s fall, which will damage your academic reputation. Thank you very much!
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