【導讀】UnitedStates. Japan. Germany. money”intheearly1970s.aremissed.Flexible,transparent,accountable. Advantages. Disadvantages. NewZealand(effectivein1990). Canada(1991). UnitedKingdom(1992). decreasing.Advantages. Disadvantages. ThomasLaubach,FredericS.

　　

【正文】 – For Moarist money supply should be highly correlated with aggregate spending but A should not ? Neither model has turned out be more accurate than the other Copyright 169。 2020 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved. 1637 Historical Evidence ? If the decline in the growth rate of the money supply is soon followed by a decline in output in these episodes, much stronger evidence is presented that money growth is the driving force behind the business cycle ? A Moary History documents several instances in which the change in the money supply is an exogenous event and the change in the business cycle soon followed Copyright 169。 2020 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved. 1638 FIGURE 3 The Link Between Moary Policy and GDP: Moary Transmission Mechanisms Copyright 169。 2020 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved. 1639 Asset Price Effects ? Traditional interest rate effects Expansionary moary policy Emphasis on real interest rate: Expansionary moary policy ? Exchange rate effects on exports Expansionary moary policy ?????? YIi r?????????? YIiP ree ????????? YNXEi rCopyright 169。 2020 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved. 1640 Asset Price Effects (cont’d) ? Tobin’s q theory Expansionary moary policy ? Wealth effects Expansionary moary policy ???????? YIqP s????? w e a l t hP s???? Ync o n s u m p t i oCopyright 169。 2020 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved. 1641 Credit View ? Bank lending channel Expansionary moary policy → bank deposits ↑ → bank loans ↑ → → I ↑ → Y ↑ ? Balance sheet channel Expansionary moary policy → Ps ↑ → worth ↑ → → adverse selection ↓, moral hazard ↓→ lending ↑ → → I ↑ → Y ↑ Copyright 169。 2020 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved. 1642 Credit View (cont’d) ? Cash flow channel Expansionary moary policy → i ↓→ cash flow ↑ → adverse selection ↓, moral hazard ↓→ lending ↑ → I ↑ → Y ↑ ? Unanticipated price level channel Expansionary moary policy → unanticipated P ↑ → real worth ↑ → → adverse selection ↓, moral hazard ↓→ lending ↑ → I ↑ → Y ↑ ? Household liquidity effects Expansionary moary policy → Ps ↑ → value of financial assets ↑ → likelihood of financial distress ↓→ consumer durable and housing expenditure↑ → Y ↑ Copyright 169。 2020 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved. 1643 Lessons for Moary Policy ? It is dangerous always to associate the easing or the tightening of moary policy with a fall or a rise in shortterm nominal interest rates ? Other asset prices besides those on shortterm debt instruments contain important information about the stance of moary policy because they are important elements in various moary policy transmission mechanisms Copyright 169。 2020 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved. 1644 Lessons for Moary Policy (cont’d) ? Moary policy can be highly effective in reviving a weak economy even if shortterm interest rates are already near zero ? Avoiding unanticipated fluctuations in the price level is an important objective of moary policy, thus providing a rationale for price stability as the primary longrun goal for moary policy