【正文】 2020 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved. 1641 Credit View ? Bank lending channel Expansionary moary policy → bank deposits ↑ → bank loans ↑ → → I ↑ → Y ↑ ? Balance sheet channel Expansionary moary policy → Ps ↑ → worth ↑ → → adverse selection ↓, moral hazard ↓→ lending ↑ → → I ↑ → Y ↑ Copyright 169。 2020 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved. 1633 FIGURE 1 Real and Nominal Interest Rates on ThreeMonth Treasury Bills, 1931–2020 Sources: Nominal rates from using the procedure outlined in Frederic S. Mishkin, “The Real Interest Rate: An Empirical Investigation,” CarnegieRochester Conference Series on Public Policy 15 (1981): 151–200. This involves estimating expected inflation as a function of past interest rates, inflation, and time trends and then subtracting the expected inflation measure from the nominal interest rate. Copyright 169。 2020 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved. 1625 FIGURE 5 The Taylor Rule for the Federal Funds Rate, 1970–2020 Source: Federal Reserve: ’s calculations. Copyright 169。 2020 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved. 1617 The Taylor Rule, NAIRU, and the Phillips Curve F e d e r a l f u n d s r a t e t a r g e t =i n f l a t i o n r a t e ? e q u i l i b r i u m r e a l f e d f u n d s r a t e? 1 / 2 ( i n f l a t i o n g a p ) ? 1 / 2 ( o u t p u t g a p )? An inflation gap and an output gap – Stabilizing real output is an important concern – Output gap is an indicator of future inflation as shown by Phillips curve ? NAIRU – Rate of unemployment at which there is no tendency for inflation to change Copyright 169。 2020 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved. 169 FIGURE 1 Inflation Rates and Inflation Targets for New Zealand, Canada, and the United Kingdom, 1980–2020 Source: Ben S. Bernanke, Thomas Laubach, Frederic S. Mishkin, and Adam S. Poson, Inflation Targeting: Lessons from the International Experience (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1999), updates from the same sources, and .nz/statistics/econind/a3/. Copyright 169。 2020 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved. Chapter 16 The Conduct of Moary Policy: Strategy and Tactics Copyright 169。 2020 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved. 166 Inflation Targeting I ? Public announcement of mediumterm numerical target for inflation ? Institutional mitment to price stability as the primary, longrun goal of moary policy and a mitment to achieve the inflation goal ? Informationinclusive approach in which many variables are used in making decisions ? Increased transparency of the strategy ? Increased accountability of the central bank Copyright 169。 2020 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved. 1614 FIGURE 2 Linkages Between Central Bank Tools, Policy Instruments, Intermediate Targets, and Goals of Moary Policy Copyright 169。 2020 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved. 1622 Historical Perspective I ? Discount policy and the real bills doctrine ? Discovery of open market operations ? The Great Depression ? Reserve requirements as a policy tool – Thomas Amendment to the Agricultural Adjustment Act of 1933