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ide 23) ? accounts payable (Rmb 57 million) and advances from customers (Rmb 16 million) will be un affected in the restructuring (. total Rmb 73 million) 5 Enterprise / Debt restructuring cont.: A “good” debt / equity structure for a healthy pany may be in the following range: *Shortfall is the difference between existing debts that have to be repaid (Rmb 471 million refer slide 3). The shortfall amount would have to be restructured by a bination of: ? Debt for equity, absorbing up to 100% ownership ? Proceeds from sale of non core assets ? Write off ? Taken over by Parent Company 25 D /E ra t io T o t a l n e wd eb tPri o rit yal lo ca t i o nR em aini ngn e w d eb tSh o rtfa ll *2:1 223 73 150 3213:1 251 73 178 2934:1 267 73 194 277Enterprise / Debt restructuring cont.: ? The Enterprise can absorb more debt and a more aggressive (higher) debt / equity ratio if the cash flow can support a higher level of initial debt that can be paid down in reasonable time. ? In the existing “Base Case” model, if all interest payments are removed from the model (already there is no principal repayments) then cash flow generated over the 5 years approximates Rmb 205 million. ? If the restructured debt level was Rmb 194 million (from previous page) the cash flow would be sufficient to pay interest on this debt and to repay the debt within 6 7 years. ? However, some of the assumptions in the “Base case” model may be optimistic. ? If sales growth was only 50% of projected levels, there would only be sufficient cash flow to pay interest, but no principal repayments. ? This exercise needs to be re done once final, realistic assumptions are agreed. 26 Enterprise / Debt restructuring cont. ? Existing debt profile (to be confirmed): Rmb’mil ICBC 190 Approximately 15 other institutions 281 Total 471 ? Appears only a small amount guaranteed by assets Rmb 1 million ? Large number of banks will plicate debt restructuring negotiations ? Note that a substantial overall debt reduction may be likely (somewhere between Rmb 200 350 million). ? What is it possible to offer to the Banks for the reduction required: ? Cash from sale of non core assets ? Assumption of slow/no paying AR ? Security against unencumbered assets ? Equity ? Parent Company assistance? 27 Enterprise / Debt restructuring cont..: ? If the business plan / financial projections demonstrate a debt write off should occur, and Banks / State can not accept the economic reality of a debt write off, the following alternative structure may be considered: ? Transfer good assets and reasonable amount of debts to a New Co. structure ? Sell remaining non core assets and use cash to reduce remaining debts。 ? Issue to the Factory some shares in New Co.。 ? Leave remaining debts on books of the Factory, with an asset being shares in New Co.。 ? Benefits: ?Banks / State can leave un restructured debts on books of the Factory, . loss not crystallised。 ?New Co. not burdened by excessive debt. ? Note discussing what “should” happen to restructure debts properly needs to be considered recognising that actually getting banks to agree to this in the current banking environment in China would be extremely difficult. 28 Action plan ? Review the assumptions in the financial model again closely, particularly those impacting cash flow, and settle on a final “Base case” model. ? Review the “real” value of the balance sheet assets. ? Re perform the analysis of appropriate level of debts based on above. ? Continue to monitor actual performance against the projections, to improve management anticipation of and reaction to problems, and to make sure basic assumptions in the model are realistic. 29