【文章內(nèi)容簡(jiǎn)介】 isks is included in the baseline duration estimate for each activity Activity Duration Estimating Source: pmbok guide 2023 169。 2023 RobbinsGioia, Inc. 622 Tools Techniques ? Expert judgment – Used with historical information ? Analogous estimates (Topdown estimating) – Uses duration of a previous, similar activity as the basis for the of estimate of a future activity ? Quantitatively based durations – Quantities to be performed for each specific work category defined by the engineering/design effort, multiplied by the productivity unit rate ? Reserve time (contingency) – An additional time frame, called time reserve, contingency, or buffer, that can be added to the activity duration or elsewhere in the schedule as recognition of schedule risk Activity Duration Estimating Source: pmbok guide 2023 169。 2023 RobbinsGioia, Inc. 623 Outputs ? Duration estimates – Quantitative assessments of the likely number of work periods required to plete an activity ? Basis of estimates – Documentation of the assumptions used for developing the estimates ? Activity list updates Activity Duration Estimating Source: pmbok guide 2023 169。 2023 RobbinsGioia, Inc. 624 Schedule Development Determining the start and finish dates of project activities If start and finish dates are not realistic, the project is unlikely to be finished on schedule Source: pmbok guide 2023 169。 2023 RobbinsGioia, Inc. 625 Schedule Development Inputs ? Project work diagram ? Activity duration estimates ? Resource requirements ? Resourcepool description ? Calendars ? Constraints ? Assumptions ? Leads and lags ? Risk management plan ? Activity attributes Tools Techniques ? Mathematical analysis ? Duration pression ? Simulation ? Resourceleveling heuristics ? Project management software ? Coding structure Outputs ? Project schedule ? Supporting detail ? Schedule management plan ? Resourcerequirement updates Source: pmbok guide 2023 169。 2023 RobbinsGioia, Inc. 626 Inputs ? Project work diagram ? Duration estimates ? Resource requirements ? Resource pool – Description of the available resources and the times they are available to work on the project ? Calendars – Identify periods when work is allowed – Project calendars: Affect all resources – Resource calendars: Affect specific resources or categories of resources Schedule Development Source: pmbok guide 2023 169。 2023 RobbinsGioia, Inc. 627 Inputs ? Constraints – Imposed dates – Key events or milestones ? Assumptions ? Leads and lags – Dependencies that require lead or lag values to accurately define the relationship ? Risk management plan ? Activity attributes – Includes who has responsibility for performing the work, geographic area or building (location for the work), and activity type (summary or detail level) Schedule Development Source: pmbok guide 2023 169。 2023 RobbinsGioia, Inc. 628 Tools Techniques ? Mathematical analysis – Calculating theoretical early and late start and finish dates for all activities – Critical Path Method (CPM) – Calculates a single, deterministic early and late start and finish date for each activity, to be used to determine which activities must be pleted on time to avoid impacting the finish date of the project – Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique (GERT) – Allows for loops in the relationships between a