【文章內(nèi)容簡介】 hatitisdoubtfultheJapanesecancontinueincreasingtheirshareatthesamepace.FewersegmentsareleftfortheJapanesetoinvade.TheToyotadivision,forexample,offersafulllineofvehiclesparabletoFordorChevrolet,andithasarangeofmodelsintheLexusluxurydivisionthatincludessedans,SUVs,andsportscars.167。 ProfitabilityisalsopressuredattheBig3paredtoAsianmanufacturers.Forexample,Hondaaverages$1,581inprofitpervehicle(soldintheUS)andToyotagets$1,214.GeneralMotors,however,earnsonly$701whileChryslerGroupmakesonly$226.Fordlosesanaverageof$114oneachvehiclesoldlastyear.BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUPGlobal Automotive Industry: Market Share by RevenueTheglobalautomotiveindustryishighlyconcentratedwhilemarketshareisshifting.n DaimlerChrysler,FordMotor,andGeneralMotorsmakeup44%oftotalglobalsales.However,thisisonepercentlessthanlastyear,indicatingtheBig3’slossofmarketsharetosmallerpetitors.n WhileToyotahasgreatlyincreaseditsmarketshareintheUS,thepanyhasalsolostapercentageofmarketsharesincelastyear.n ImportstoNorthAmericaarethehighestthey’vebeensincethelate80’s.OfparticularconcerntoAmericanmanufacturers,lighttrucksales,oncethemajorprofitgenerator,arelosingsharetoforeignpetitorslikeToyotaandNissan.Source: Standard And Poors, 2023BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUPIndustry Profitability Severely PressuredThelargeautomakershavebeenfightingthedownturnandtryingtosustainsaleswithlargerebatesandeasycreditintheUSandincreasinglyinEurope.However,thesestrategieshaveseriouslypressuredprofits.167。 DaimlerChryslerreportedinJuly2023thatinefellworsethanithassincetheindustry’slastpoorearningsperiodinlate2023.167。 Mitsubishipromotedeasycredit,includingloansthatdeferredpaymentsforayeartoconsumerswithweakcreditbuthaverecentlyrescindedthispromotionduetoprofiterosion.167。 PSA’sprofitwashitmostlyduetotheriseoftheEuro,especiallyagainsttheBritishPoundandBrazilianReal,Brazilbeingwhereithasoneplant.167。 Someautomakersareattributingthisspanofpoorearningstothebottomofthecurrentcycleofslowdown,howevermanyarestillseekingstructuralimprovementsandbetterpricingpowertobufferthiscycle.Company EarningsStatus IssuesGeneralMotorsOperatingprofitfell87%,AnnouncedearningsAugust8,2023IntenseUSpricewarseverelypressuredprofitsDaimlerChryslerSecondquarter2023operatingprofitfell62%Chryslerlosses,USpricewar,MercedessalesslackingRenault Operatingprofitfell€588million.Lastreported7/24/03Globalsalesdecline(%)infirsthalf。adversecurrencymovesPSAPuegotCitreonOperatingprofitsinautodivisiondown27%infirsthalf2023Strongeuro,weakFrenchdemandVolkswagen €400millionoffitspretaxprofit,announcedMay2023Foreignexchangemoves,weakEuropeansalesMitsubishi Forecasting$674MlossasofJuly2023USsalesdown20%in6mos.April。anticipates$420MchargeforbadcarloansFord 96%dropinoperatingprofitinmidJulyannouncements$525MlossatFordofEurope,USpricewarSource: Wall Street Journal, Earnings ReportsBUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUPAutomakers Still Poor at Aligning Supply and DemandProfitsintheglobalautoindustryaresufferingsinceOEMscannotaligntheirsupplywithconsumerdemand.Whileconsumerdemanddataisreadilyavailable,carmakersfollowlaggingindicatorsandtheresultisineffectiveadvertisingandrebatesandinventoryoverstocks.Thecurrentmethodsthatautomakersusetosatisfydemandareoutofalignment.n Inrecordsalesyears(suchas2023),profitsintheautomobileindustryaveragedamere%andonlythreepanies—BMW,HondaandMagnaInternationalhad5%profit.n Forecastsoftenmissactualdemand.Forexample,demandforDaimler’sPTCruiserfarexceededsupplywhenitcameonthemarket.ThenDCXrampedupcapacityto230Kunits,makingitordinaryandbuyersmovedon.Rightnowthefactoryisdiscountingthemodel,furthererodingthemodel’simage.n Suppliersarehurtbyvariation.WhenanOEMplansincorrectlyonaparticularplatformvolume,ofabout1015%,thefactoryhastoraiseorlowervolumesuddenly.n In2023saleswerethelowestinfouryears,leavingvehicleinventoryat70days.Seventydaysofinventorycanmean$40Bincapitalsittingonlots.MeanwhiledealersandOEMsspend$3Band$11B,respectively,everyyearonadvertisements.n Theloopfromproductionplanningtomanufacturetosaleandbacktakesupto6months,whichistoolongtofixoverproductionofanunpopularconfigurationortoinformsuppliersofsurgesindemand.Withalaggingmarket,intensepetitionandmorerapidlyshiftingconsumertastes,thispooralignmenthasbeenmoreobviousintheindustrythanever.n Automakersarestillapplyinglastyear39。ssalesresultstothecurrentyear’spreplannedvolumewithoutconsiderationofhowmanydaysittooktosellspecificvehicles.BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUPUS Automotive Distribution: Inefficient NetworkDealersaccountfornearlyallUScarandmercialvehiclesales,buttheseworksareincreasinglyinefficient.Automotivepanieshavenotbeenabletorelocateorshutdownpoorperformersduetostatelaws.However,itispossibletoreshapedealerworksbyorchestratingaseriesofownershipchanges,encouragingweakperformerstoexitthemarket,helpingtopperformerstoexpand,andencouragingdealerstoimprovesalesskills.Giventightprofitmargins,manufacturerscandefinitelyusetheextraprofitthatamoreefficientdistributionsystemcould