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經(jīng)常由大量投機(jī)活動 (speculative activity)支撐。由于缺乏實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的支撐,其資產(chǎn)猶如泡沫一般容易破裂,因此經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)上稱之為 “泡沫經(jīng)濟(jì) ”。 日本 GDP、房地產(chǎn)、股票價格走勢圖 泡沫 經(jīng)濟(jì) 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2023 2023 1975年末 = GDP 房地產(chǎn) 日經(jīng)股價指數(shù) 1987年底,日本股票市值竟然占到全球股市總市值的 %,并趕超了美國,成為世界第一。 1989年底,股票總市值繼續(xù)膨脹至 896萬億日元,占當(dāng)年國民生產(chǎn)總值的 60%。 若以 1955年為 100,到 1965年則上漲超過了 1000,到 1988年則超過了 10000, 也就是說,日本城市房地產(chǎn)價格在 33年間上漲了 100倍 。 據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì), 90年代的日本整個東京的地價竟然比當(dāng)時美國全部領(lǐng)土的地價還多 3倍 。 the similarities between China39。s situation and Japan39。s during the economic crisis The Similarities Between Chinese Situation and Japan39。s During the Economic Crisis ?Moary policy ?Financial market ?The stock market ?Real estate ?Consumption ?Export oriented economy ?The outflow of funds (貨幣政策 ) (金融市場 ) (股市 ) (房地產(chǎn) ) (消費(fèi) ) (出口導(dǎo)向型經(jīng)濟(jì) ) (資金外流 ) estate Japanese land price Chinese house price 房價重回 30年前 2. Consumption 通貨膨脹,國內(nèi)貨幣相對貶值,會導(dǎo)致民眾購買力下降,消費(fèi)下降。對經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生丌良影響。我國和日本同樣出現(xiàn)過這種狀況。 同時,貨幣政策改變,利率下調(diào)時,民眾把錢存在銀行已是丌合算。更愿意把錢拿出來購買實(shí)物 (比如說黃金 ),這樣就會導(dǎo)致在某一方面消費(fèi)過熱,物價上漲。丌利于經(jīng)濟(jì)維穩(wěn)。中國最近的 黃金熱和當(dāng)時的日本如出一轍。 A. low consumption rate B. speculative consumption 圖為 2023年 4月 22日,杭州某首飾有限公司黃金展廳內(nèi),一位帶著耳塞避免干擾的工作人員躲避瘋狂的顧客。 3. The stock market investment has certain risks, be wised with your decision ?economic prosperity ?economic recession economy’s boom and bust of Japan and its inspiration to China economic prosperity ? Accurately grasp the international situation, take the time to develop準(zhǔn)確把握好國際形勢,抓緊時間發(fā)展 ? Government contribution政府的貢獻(xiàn) ?Developing the country by relying on science and education 科教興國 ?Technology introduction , encourage innovation 技術(shù)引進(jìn)、鼓勵創(chuàng)新 新幹線 economic recession ?Avoid overinvestment避免 過度投資 ?To transform economic development mode, and ensure that the real economy continues to grow 轉(zhuǎn)變經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方式應(yīng)確保實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)增長 ?To ensure a flexible exchange rate policy應(yīng)確保靈活的匯率政策 ?reform of the financial system ,establish a sound financial system進(jìn)行金融體制改革, 建立健全的金融市場 ?Establish a housing policy with the situation of China制定合乎我國國情的住房政策 Whether Chinese economy has a bubble ? If everyone is doing speculative investments in the real estate and stock market and addicting to the game, there will be a bubble. If we do not dream of being rich overnight, more and more people work hard diligently, the economy will continue growing steadily in the future. Thanks! Philanthropy 慈善事業(yè) Quotation The gap