【文章內(nèi)容簡介】 li n g a c tio nimpa ct d e la yR is k c o nt r oll i ng ac t i oni mpl em ent at i on ma rgi n(= ur genc y )HKK 1/30/2023 19 Nokia Mikko Routti Definition of Risk ? Risk is a fuzzy concept: be clear on what you mean ? Risk is not the same as a problem: ? probability = 1 ? problem solving – too late ? Risk is relative to stakeholders and their expectations ? The rightlevel of abstraction is critical ? … and it depends on the situation VOCABULARY:example GGoal and stakeholder review A process step in risk management. The stated goals of the working entity (Business Unit, Product program, Business Group, Function etc.) are reviewed and refined. Stakeholders39。 associations with the goals are analyzed M Mitigation Strategy A strategy that is used to lower the probability and/or utility loss of risk scenarios O Objective A goal that has an achievable, welldefined target level of achievement. R Risk Any uncertainty that affects the objectives and achievement of optimum result. A possibility (probability of less than 1) of loss, the loss itself, or any characteristic, object or action that is associated with that possibility. HKK 1/30/2023 20 Nokia Mikko Routti Risk Management ? Risk management refers to a systematic and explicit approach used for identifying, analyzing and controlling risk. ? The risk management process produces two main outputs: ? Understanding about risks ? Controlling actions Risk mgmt process Understanding of risks Controlling actions Information about the situation Risk mgmt methods Project context, goals, and plans HKK 1/30/2023 21 Nokia Mikko Routti Risk Management Process Risk Management Mandate Goal Stakeholder Review Risk Identification Risk Control control planning Risk Monitoring Risk Analysis goals and stake holders responsibilities and scope for risk mgmt list of potential risks documented, prioritized risks selected controlling actions Need for new risk mgmt cycle HKK 1/30/2023 22 Nokia Mikko Routti Risk Mgmt Process outputs R is ki t step D e scri p tio n Outp u t D e fine Ri sk M a n a g e m e n t M a n d a te Def i ne th e s c op e an d f r eq ue ncy o f ri s k m an ag em en t. Ri s k m an ag em en t m an da te . R e vi e w St a keh o lde r s a n d g o a ls Rev i ew th e s ta te d go al s f or th e proj ect, r ef i ne th em a nd d ef i ne i m pl i c i t g oa l s a nd co nstr ai nt s e x pl i c i tl y . Recog ni z e al l rel ev an t stak eh ol de r s a nd th ei r ass oci at i on s w i th th e go al s . E x pl i c i t g oa l d ef i ni ti on s S ta k eh ol de r s r ecog ni z ed . Id e n tify Ri sks Id en ti f y p ot en ti al th r ea ts to th e proj ect u s i ng m ul ti pl e ap proa c he s . A l is t o f “r aw ” ri s k s. An a ly ze R is ks Cl ass i f y i de nt i f i ed ri s k s i nt o r i s k f actors a nd r i s k e v en ts . Com pl et e r i s k s c en ari os f or al l ri s k e v en ts . E s ti m at e r i s k e f f ects f or al l ri s k s c en ari os E s ti m at e prob ab i l i ti es an d ut i l i ty l oss es of r i s k s c en ari os. Com pl et ed Ri s k i t an al y s i s g r ap hs f or al l an al y z ed ri s k s . Ran k ed ri s k s c en ari os. Pla n Ri sk Con trol S el ect th e m ost i m po r ta nt ri s k s f or r i s k c on trol p l an ni ng . P r op ose ri s k c on trol l i ng a c ti on s f or m ost i m po r ta nt ri s k s . S el ect th e r i s k c on trol l i ng a c ti on s to b e i m pl em en te d. S el ect ed ri s k c on trol l i ng a c ti on s . C o n trol Ri sks Im pl em en t t he ri s k c on trol l i ng a c ti on s . Red uced ri s k s . M o n itor Ri sks M on i to r th e r i s k s i tu at i on . Ri s k s ta tu s i nf orm at i on . HKK 1/30/2023 23 Nokia Mikko Routti Risk Management Mandate ? Define the scope, detail, authority and frequency of risk management in a specific project ? Scope and detail: what risks must be managed and at what level of detail ? Authority: who is responsible, who participates, what resources are available ? Frequency: how often should it be done ? Stakeholders: whose risks will be managed HKK 1/30/2023 24 Nokia Mikko Routti Communicating Risk Information Top Management Business Units Projects MANDATE RISKS HKK 1/30/2023 25 Nokia Mikko Routti Summary ? Mandate is used to clarify the roles and responsibilities in risk management ? Mandate is given by the project owners to the project manager ? When the risk management infrastructure is in place, many aspects of the risk management mandate are easy to define HKK 1/30/2023 26 Nokia Mikko Routti Goal Review: Definition of Risk ? Uncertainty associated with reaching the objectives. ? Risk has two main attributes: ? Impact: some damage (“pain”) ? uncertainty: there is uncertainty about whether the loss will occur Risk Uncertainty Impact HKK 1/30/2023 27 Nokia Mikko Routti Definition of Risk ?Uncertainty associated with reaching the objectives. ?Probability ?Impact ? goals or expectations: without them the definiti