【文章內(nèi)容簡介】 了許多課外知識，認(rèn)識到數(shù)學(xué)模型對油氣田的產(chǎn)量預(yù)測的重要性。雖然在課程設(shè)計的過程中遇到了一些問題，但經(jīng)過反復(fù)的思考與檢查找出原因所在并進(jìn)行改正。（3）通過計算機(jī)的編程學(xué)習(xí)與操作，使我對VB語言有了更進(jìn)一步的認(rèn)識和了解。同時，提高了使用計算機(jī)技應(yīng)用的能力以及解決實(shí)際問題的工程應(yīng)用能力，使理論與實(shí)踐相結(jié)合。（4）現(xiàn)在能熟練掌握、運(yùn)用威布爾（Weibull）模型與乙型水驅(qū)曲線聯(lián)解法的原理、推導(dǎo)及公式，可以對油氣田的年產(chǎn)量、累計產(chǎn)量、含水率、可采儲量、最高年產(chǎn)量、最高年產(chǎn)量發(fā)生的時間以及與最高年產(chǎn)量對應(yīng)的累積產(chǎn)量進(jìn)行預(yù)測。（5）這次課程設(shè)計，使我認(rèn)識到學(xué)好計算機(jī)的重要性與實(shí)踐操作的必要性，在老師的指導(dǎo)下和與同學(xué)的討論中，不斷地發(fā)現(xiàn)問題、不斷地解決問題、不斷地領(lǐng)悟、不斷地獲取，使自己的程序不斷完善。（6）課程設(shè)計誠然是一門專業(yè)課，它給了我很多的專業(yè)知識以及專業(yè)上的提升。課程設(shè)計同時又是一門講道課，一門思辨課，給了我許多道，給了我許多思，得到很大的提升空間。參考文獻(xiàn)[1][J].新疆石油地質(zhì)，1995，16（3）：250255.[2][J].石油勘探與開發(fā)，1978，4（6）：3864.[3] [J].石油學(xué)報，1993，14（2）：6573.[4] [J]. 石油學(xué)報，1985，6（2）：6978.附錄：計算機(jī)程序與結(jié)果計算機(jī)程序Option Base 0Const e = Dim a, t(200), qt(200), t0(200), q0(200), qw(200), ye(200), wp(200)Dim b, c, dDim afw, qmax, tm, NR, x, y, a1, a2, r, rmax, bmax, aa1, bb1, cc1, ub, aa, ab, ar, br, yt, an, bn, mnDim s(), px(), py()Dim sx, sy, sxy, sx2, sy2Dim np(200), lp(200)Dim yq0(200), ynp(200), yfw(200), ynr, fw(200)Private Sub c1_Click()yt = 50Rem 源數(shù)據(jù)輸入Open + \ For Input As 1ub = 1Do Until EOF(1)ub = ub + 1Input 1, ye(ub), t(ub), q0(ub), qw(ub), np(ub), wp(ub), lp(ub)lp(ub) = Log(lp(ub)) / Log(10)LoopClose 1Private Sub c5_Click()Rem 乙型參數(shù)計算For an = ub To 2 Step 1 39。求相關(guān)系數(shù)r,趨勢線sx = 0: sy = 0: sxy = 0: sx2 = 0: sy2 = 0l = ub anFor i = l To an + lsx = sx + np(i)Next iFor i = l To an + lsy = sy + lp(i)Next iFor i = l To an + lsxy = sxy + np(i) * lp(i)Next iFor i = l To an + lsx2 = sx2 + np(i) ^ 2Next iFor i = l To an + lsy2 = sy2 + lp(i) ^ 2Next ia2 = ((an + 1) * sxy sx * sy) / ((an + 1) * sx2 sx ^ 2)a1 = (sx2 * sy sx * sxy) / ((an + 1) * sx2 sx ^ 2)r = ((an + 1) * sxy sx * sy) / (((an + 1) * sx2 sx ^ 2) ^ * ((an + 1) * sy2 sy ^ 2) ^ )39。取最大值rIf r ar Then ar = rNext anaa = a1ab = a2 = aa 39。截距，參數(shù)A = ab 39。斜率，參數(shù)B = ar 39。最大相關(guān)系數(shù)Rem weibull參數(shù)計算bn = 12l = ub bnbmax = 0rmax = 0For b = 1 To 2 Step sx = 0: sy = 0: sxy = 0: sx2 = 0: sy2 = 0 For i = l To l + bn t(i) = i + 1 Next i For i = l To l + bn qt(i) = Log(q0(i) / (t(i) ^ b)) / Log(10) t0(i) = t(i) ^ (b + 1) Next i For i = l To l + bn sx = sx + t0(i) Next i For i = l To l + bn sy = sy + qt(i) Next i For i = l To l + bn sxy = sxy + qt(i) * t0(i) Next i For i = l To l + bn sx2 = sx2 + t0(i) ^ 2 Next i For i = l To l + bn sy2 = sy2 + qt(i) ^ 2 Next i r = Abs(((bn + 1) * sxy sx * sy) / (((bn + 1) * sx2 sx ^ 2) ^ * ((bn + 1) * sy2 sy ^ 2) ^ ))39。最大相關(guān)系數(shù) If r rmax Then 39。r取最大值 rmax = r bmax = b a2 = ((bn + 1) * sxy sx * sy) / ((bn + 1) * sx2 sx ^ 2) a1 = (sx2 * sy sx * sxy) / ((bn + 1) * sx2 sx ^ 2) End IfNext baa1 = 10 ^ a1bb1 = bmaxcc1 = 1 / ( * a2)afw = 100 * (1 10 ^ ((aa + ab * aa1 * cc1 / (bb1 + 1) + Log( * ab) / Log(10)))) 39。極限含水率fw公式，fw=110(A+B(a*c/(b+1)(1exp(t^(b+1)/c))))tm = (bb1 * cc1 / (bb1 + 1)) ^ (1 / (bb1 + 1))39。最高年產(chǎn)量對應(yīng)時間tm公式，tm=(b*c/(b+1))^(1/(b+1))qmax = aa1 * (bb1 * cc1 / (bb1 + 1)) ^ (bb1 / (bb1 + 1)) * Exp(bb1 / (bb1 + 1))39。最高年產(chǎn)量Qmax公式，Qmax=a*(b*c/(b+1))^(b/(b+1))*exp(b/(b+1))NR = aa1 * cc1 / (bb1 + 1)39?？刹蓛α縉R公式，NR=a*c/(b+1) = a2 39。斜率 = a1 39。截距 = rmax 39。最大相關(guān)系數(shù) = aa1 39。參數(shù)a = bb1 39。參數(shù)b = cc1 39。參數(shù)c = afw 39。極限含水率 = qmax 39。最高年產(chǎn)量 = tm 39。最高年產(chǎn)量對應(yīng)時間 = NR 39?？刹蓛α縍em 預(yù)測數(shù)據(jù)For i = 0 To yt t(i) = i + 1 yq0(i) = Round(aa1 * (t(i) ^ bb1) * (e ^ (t(i) ^ (bb1 + 1) / cc1)), 2) ynp(i) = Round(aa1 * cc1 * (1 (e ^ (t(i) ^ (bb1 + 1) / cc1))) / (bb1 + 1), 2) If i = ub Then fw(i) = Ro