財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)告的決策有用性(編輯修改稿)
2025-02-02 22:42 本頁(yè)面
【文章內(nèi)容簡(jiǎn)介】 n information system conveying information about probabilities of θ. Assume the financial statements will give one of the following 3 mutually exclusive messages: ?????05./:1 CLCASENIpoorm?????12./:2 CLCASENIf ai rm?????18./:3 CLCASENIgoodmNI: Net Ine SE: Shareholders’ Equity CA: Current Assets CL: Current Liabilities 319 2022/2/3 SinglePerson Decision Theory The information system can be characterized by the following table: P(m1/θ) P(m2/θ) P(m3/θ) θ1 .75 .20 .05 θ2 .50 .30 .20 θ3 .10 .20 .70 These conditional probabilities, or likelihoods, are the probabilities of receiving the various messages conditional on each state being true. 這些條件概率，或者可能性，是指假定未來(lái)（盈利能力）預(yù)期是真實(shí)的情況下，當(dāng)期財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表傳遞各種消息的可能性！ 320 2022/2/3 SinglePerson Decision Theory Now, for any message, the decision maker can revise his/her prior probabilities using Bayes’ Theorem. Suppose that m1 was received from the financial statements. ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? 09.4 1 2 5.)75)(.05(.///111111 ??? ???????PmPmPPmP=P(m1) =.85 =.06 Then: Similarly: )/( 12 mP ?)/( 13 mP ?321 2022/2/3 SinglePerson Decision Theory Note the EMV of each act is 1000)(390$)8000)(06(.0)1000)(09(.)(21??????aE MVaE MVSo if m1 were received act a2 would be chosen. 322 2022/2/3 SinglePerson Decision Theory You should verify that if m2 was received: 0 0 0 1 8 5 2.)/(7 7 7 8.)/(0 3 7 0.)/(232221???mPmPmP???2 7 0 0.)()/()( 22?? ???? PmPmPwhere And the optional act is then a
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