[經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)]財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表與證券定價(jià)佩因曼英文ppt(編輯修改稿)
2025-01-04 01:59 本頁(yè)面
【文章內(nèi)容簡(jiǎn)介】 2022 2022 2022 2022 2022 Cash from operations 30,009 39,398 34,848 36,102 36,484 Cash investments 37,699 40,308 61,227 21,843 38,414 Free cash flow (7,690) (910) (26,379) 14,259 (1,930) Earnings 12,735 13,684 14,118 15,002 16,593 Earnings per share (eps) Dividends per share (dps) 414 DCF Valuation and Speculation ? Formal valuation aims to reduce our uncertainty about value and to discipline speculation ? The most uncertain (speculative) part of a valuation is the continuing value. So valuation techniques are preferred if they result in a smaller amount of the value attributable to the continuing value ? DCF techniques can result in more than 100% of the valuation in the continuing value: See General Electric. 415 Reverse Engineering: What Forecasts are Implied by the Current Market Price? m i l l i on $140,904 s har e sm i l l i on 2,472 x 57 P Cok e , F or $o??$ 4 ,4 3 51 .5 3 8 6g 1 .0 9g x 311,5311,5551,4569,3910,21 .0 92 ,7 1 0m i l l i o n 1 4 0 ,9 0 4$ ?????? Reverse engineer as follows: Can Coke maintain this growth rate? r a t e )g r o w t h % 6 . 2 a ( 0 6 ?? g416 Simple Valuations Simple valuations use very short forecasts horizons, and isolate more speculative, longterm forecasts. Accordingly, they anchor on “what we know” or are relatively sure about. A simple DCF for CocaCola, 2022 D e bt Ne tgICVEEO ?????113 1 5,63$7 1 0,2???? $ 4 , 4 3 5 417 Reverse Engineering a Simple Valuation: CocaCola 435,4$$0 ??? ,710 140,904P Applying the simple model to reverse engineer Coke’s stock price, %) 7 . 1 3 is r a t e ( g r o w t h g 0 7 1 ??418 The DCF Model: Will it work for WalMart Stores? WalMart Stores, Inc. (Fiscal years ending January 31. Amounts in millions of dollars.) 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 Cash from operations 536 828 968 1,422 1,553 1,540 2,573 3,410 2,993 Cash investments 627 541 894 1,526 2,150 3,506 4,486 3,792 3,332 Free cash flow (91) 287 74 (104) (597) (1,966) (1,913) (382) (339) Dividends per share Price per share 6? 8189。 10? 16189。 27 32189。 26189。 25? 24? 419 Why Free Cash Flow is not a ValueAdded Concept ? Cash flow from operations (value added) is reduced by investments (which also add value): investments are treated as value losses ? Value received is not matched against value surrendered to generate value A firm reduces free cash flow by investing and increases free cash flow by reducing investments: free cash flow is partially a liquidation concept Note: analysts forecast earnings, not cash flows 420 Discounted Cash Flow Analysis: Advantages and Disadvantages Advantages ? Easy concept: cash flows are “real” and easy to think about。 they are not affected by accounting rules ? Familiarity: is a straight application of familiar present value techniques Disadvantages ? Suspect concept: ? free cash flow does not measure value added in the short run。 value gained is not matched with value given up. ? free cash flow fails to recognize value generated that does not involve cash flows ? investment is treated as a loss of value ? free cash flow is
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