外文翻譯------人民幣在中國(guó)：其價(jià)值、其可調(diào)節(jié)匯率和其未來(lái)發(fā)展(編輯修改稿)
2025-06-25 11:56 本頁(yè)面
【文章內(nèi)容簡(jiǎn)介】 ina’s social and financial institutions are perhaps parable to those of the . in the late 19th century period of the “Robber Barons.” A 2020 poll conducted by Peking University of about 100 China experts shows that one third of them believe there will be a major crisis in China before 2020. What is the most likely source of crisis? The most frequently mentioned are social (21 percent), financial (19 percent), economic (12 percent), and employment (10 percent). Rapid growth over the last two decades has increased ine and social inequality, environmental degradation, and regional disparity. The inplete transition from a centrallyplanned economy to a market economy under authoritarian rule has enriched the elite and economic opportunists at the cost of generating a large underclass and eroding public wealth. As some Chinese economists point out, many Chinese local governments are effectively broke and eventually will need a central government bailout. Reminiscent of the age of the . “Robber Barons,” the widespread, systematic corruption and abuse of power is estimated to cost as much as 14 percent of China’s GDP per year. The financial system—which includes the banking, securities, and insurance sectors needs an urgent overhaul to improve efficiency and be ready for foreign petition under China’s WTO mitment. Job creation remains a daunting challenge given continued efforts at transforming the stateownedenterprises and improving productivity growth. Then there are longterm issues, such as the aging population。 underfunded pension and social security systems。 and education, health care, and infrastructure issues. As one prominent economist in Beijing observed recently, “other than the central bank, few other high level officials want to talk about the exchange rate issue—there are far more urgent things to address.” To attack the problems on multiplefronts, the top leaders clearly need to ensure stability and focus on the most urgent tasks of strengthening the Party’s effectiveness and efficiency on one hand, and reforming the domestic financial sector on the other. Weak Link between Revaluation and Internal Adjustment Finally, based on international evidence (Rogoff, 2020) and China’s own experience, it is not at all clear that a revalued RMB will facilitate internal reform efforts. Revaluation of the RMB may not help that much in terms of cyclical macroeconomic adjustment. Despite significant increases in the headline inflation, core inflation remains low. This is a sharp departure from China’s historical overheating periods and suggests that there is no systematic price push from aggregate demand, as was the case in 19934 (Chu, 2020a). What is unsustainable is fixed investment growth in certain areas even while consumption and investment in other areas still need to be encouraged. China’s gross investment as a share of GDP is running at above 40 percent, which is far beyond the 2030 percent for most developing markets and higher than Japan’s and South Korea’s levels at a parable stage of development. Granted, the central government is using very blunt instruments such as credit rationing and administrative orders to address the sectoral imbalances。 but this does not suggest that changing the exchange rate right now would be a better alternative. On the contrary, an abrupt change in the foreign exchange regime would increase uncertainty and jeopardize the ability to finetune macro policies. Indeed, as Rogoff suggests, abandoning the peg to the dollar could be seen as abandoning China’s mitment to stable and sustainable macroeconomic growth. The Issue Is Mostly Political The growing . external deficits are clearly unsustainable and must be addressed. It has been argued that the longer the United States waits, the higher the potential shock or damage there will be (Mann, 2020。 BCA, 2020。 Obstfeld and Rogoff, 2020). But is revaluing the RMB part of the solution to this problem? A close look at the situation suggests that at best it may reduce the problem only marginally in the near term, while the longerterm impacts are unclear since foreign exchange policy changes can bring a host of unintended consequen
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