外文翻譯------人民幣在中國(guó)：其價(jià)值、其可調(diào)節(jié)匯率和其未來(lái)發(fā)展(存儲(chǔ)版)
【正文】 ncial system, it will share its global responsibilities as it eventually joins the G7. The paper wraps up by placing the exchange issue in the broader context and discussing the longerterm prospects of the RMB. Is the RMB Undervalued? The RMB is undervalued in the conventional sense that there is too much demand for it relative to the supply .Fundamentally, demand for foreign currency es from three sources: ? to buy goods or services, ? to invest in physical or financial assets, and ? to speculate on moves of the exchange rate itself. With a closed capital account, China’s currency is largely, but not entirely, immune from currency speculators and shortterm portfolio investors. Recent studies at the China National Economic Research Institute (2020) indicate that much of the socalled “hot money” inflows are not a result of foreign hedge fund activities. Rather, they are a change in borrowing and deposit behaviors of domestic firms and individuals, taking advantage of the loopholes in the current foreign exchange regulations. Thus, we can focus our attention on the trade and long term investment flows in China and look at the standard measures, such as purchasing power parity (PPP), trade balance, current account balance, balance of payments, and foreign reserves. PPP is an ancient economic concept, dating back at least to David Hume (1752), which has been experiencing something of a revival lately .The Economist (current) defines PPP as “the exchange rate that equates the price of a basket of identical traded goods and services in two countries.” The theory is that PPP exchange rates represent the equilibrium levels among the nations and that any departure from these levels causes potentially significant and distorting trade imbalances. There are different measures of PPP: a strong version or “absolute” version that emphasizes the absolute equality of prices (sometimes called “the Law of One Price”) and a “relative” version that emphasizes the ongoing movement over time towards that equality. Should China Bow to the Pressure? Aside from political considerations, which we will discuss later, the question of whether China should move now is a plex one, relating to several considerations. First, market expectations of the RMB’s move have already caused a significant reversal of capital flight and increased upward speculative pressure. Second, cyclical global macroeconomic developments are likely to reduce upward pressure on the RMB. Third, China is in the midst of critical structural reforms, especially in the financial sector, that require focused attention. Fourth, it is increasingly clear that the current economic overheating is sectoral in nature, which is in sharp contrast with the 19934 episode. These considerations suggest that it is not in China’s interest to revalue the currency at this time . Let’s take a closer look at each of these issues. Repegging the RMB Repegging the RMB at a value, say, 1520 percent higher against the . dollar would instantly vindicate the currency speculators, although they are mostly domestic players. Over the last couple of years, the errors and omissions category in China’s balance of payment has shown a large swing from persistent deficits to a surplus of $ billion in 2020. The errors and emissions category is believed to capture illegal capital movements. During much of mid to late90s, China’s capital flight, as a percentage of GDP, was the second worst in the world (only Russia was worse). In fact, it was worse than Mexico in 1994 and South Korea in 1997 during the height of their currency crises. Recently, however, some of this capital is finding its way back, as expectations of RMB appreciation have raised. There is also strong indication that businesses and individuals are involved in currency speculation, which has contributed to the overheating of real estate investment. Revaluing now will encourage future speculation, which could exacerbate the balance of payments pressure. More Chinese Interest Rate Flexibility As the Fed continues to boost . interest rates, Chinese authorities have more flexibility to raise domestic interest rates without wo
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