【正文】 上海 資料來源：上海世博網(wǎng) 世界博覽會(huì)是一個(gè)富有特色的講壇，它鼓勵(lì)人類發(fā)揮創(chuàng)造性和主動(dòng)參與性。 按照國(guó)際展覽局的 最新 規(guī)定，世界博覽會(huì)按性質(zhì)、規(guī)模、展期分為兩種：一種是注冊(cè)類（也稱綜合性）世博會(huì)，展期通常為 6 個(gè)月，從 20xx 年開始每 5 年舉辦一次；另一類是認(rèn)可類（也稱專業(yè)性）世博會(huì)，展期通常為 3 個(gè)月， 包括生態(tài)、陸路交通、狩獵、娛樂、原子能、森林、數(shù)據(jù)處理、糧食、花卉等多方面主題 ， 在兩屆注冊(cè)類世博會(huì)之間舉辦一次 。在 160 天的展期中，共有來自世界各地的商貿(mào)人員、社會(huì)名流和旅游觀光人士約 630 萬人次到會(huì)觀賞。首先讓我們來認(rèn)識(shí)一下什么是世界博覽會(huì)以及其對(duì)舉辦國(guó)有哪些重要意義。 三 年前，北京 向 世界 呈現(xiàn) 了 一屆無與倫比的 高水平體育盛會(huì) ， 顯示 了 中國(guó)綜合國(guó)力 的 日益強(qiáng)大。 1993 年 5 月 3 日， 國(guó)際展覽局通過決議，接納中國(guó)為其第 46 個(gè)成 員國(guó) 。 1956 年中國(guó)曾爭(zhēng)取得到 1958 年比利時(shí)布魯塞爾世博會(huì)的邀請(qǐng)，但終因政治原因而沒有成功。 從 中國(guó)參加世博會(huì)的歷史來看 ，中國(guó)參加世博會(huì)有過 多次的有益 探索。 關(guān)鍵詞 ： 世博會(huì) 世博經(jīng)濟(jì) 生產(chǎn)總值 擠出效應(yīng) 上海世博會(huì)后對(duì)上海國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值持續(xù)拉動(dòng)效應(yīng)分析 II Preliminary Analysis of the Expo’s Continuous Effect on Shanghai GDP after Expo 20xx Shanghai China Abstract World Expo is a largescaleinternational exhibition which usually be hotsed by the Government of a country. And multicountries or international anizations participate in the Expo to show the achievements in the fields of social, economic, cultural and technological. Expo is known as the Olympic pageant in the fields of economic, technological and cultural which can not only bring development oppor tunities, expand international exchanges and cooperation, promote economic deve lopment for participating cities, but also can create great economic and social benefits, spread the reputation, promote social prosperity and progress to the Amphitryon. World Expo 20xx Shanghai China is one of opportunities for Shanghai?s economic development, which has a positive effect on the building of international metropolis and international economic, financial, trade and shipping center of Shanghai. Expo impacts the host countries and cities by Expo economy． As an economic activity, it has important practical significance on how to improve effici ency, expand Expo?s positive economic impact and reduce its negative effects. The content of the paper is divided into five parts. The first chapter introduces the research background, research significance and research content. Chapter II analyses several typical Expos and its economic impacts on host cities from different aspects. Chapter III reviews the theories of Expo economy and introduces the concept, characteristics and economic value position of World Expo. Chapter IV analyses the economic impacts to Shanghai of 20xx Shanghai World Expo from positive impacts and negative impacts. The last chapter concludes the paper and makes some suggestions. First， the paper introduces the theories of Expo economy and analyses the impacts to Shanghai city of World Expo 20xx Shanghai China form positive impacts and negative impacts. The positive impacts include direct and indirect effects. The direct impacts are prise of directly stimulating economic growth, promoting job growth, promoting the development of related industries， improving infrastructure and creating more open environment. Indirectly affects consist of promoting regional 上海理工大學(xué)畢業(yè)設(shè)計(jì)（論文 ） III economic development, restructuring industry, upgrading human capital. The negative impacts include the crowdingout effects， boosting the real estate bubble formation, the interests loss of nonbeneficiary groups and the idle and excess facilities. Finally, I bring forward some measures and advises aiming at the negative impacts. Keywords: World Expo World Expo Economy GDP Crowdingout Effects 上海理工大學(xué)畢業(yè)設(shè)計(jì)（論文 ） i 目 錄 摘 要 .............................................................................................................................I Abstract ......................................................................................................................... II 第 1 章 緒 論 ............................................................................................................ 1 課題的研究背景 ........................................................................................... 1 課題的研究意義 ........................................................................................... 2 世界博覽會(huì)簡(jiǎn)介 ............................................................................... 3 舉辦世博會(huì)的意義 ........................................................................... 5 課題的研究?jī)?nèi)容 ........................................................................................... 8 第 2 章 歷屆世博會(huì)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響分析 .................................................................... 9 促進(jìn)主辦城市的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展 ........................................................................... 9 歷史上最成功的世博會(huì) ——大阪世博會(huì) ....................................... 9 漢諾威的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益和社會(huì)效益 ..................................................... 10 世博會(huì)對(duì) GDP 的影響 ................................................................... 13 改善舉辦城市的基礎(chǔ)建設(shè) ......................................................................... 13 漢諾威的 “世界項(xiàng)目 ” ..................................................................... 14 世博會(huì)改變了城市面貌 ................................................................. 14 世博會(huì)建設(shè)的重中之中 ................................................................. 15 促進(jìn)舉辦國(guó)就業(yè)增長(zhǎng) ................................................................................. 15 大阪就業(yè)率的持續(xù)上升 ................................................................. 15 世博會(huì)創(chuàng)造的就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì) ................................................................. 16 推動(dòng)產(chǎn)業(yè)升級(jí)和創(chuàng)新 ................................................................................. 16 韓國(guó)的新技術(shù) ................................................................................. 16 塞維利亞科技園區(qū) ......................................................................... 17 漢諾威 ——國(guó)際會(huì)展之城 ............................................................. 17 新奧爾良 ——美國(guó)城市旅游的領(lǐng)頭羊 ......................................... 17 強(qiáng)化周邊經(jīng)濟(jì)合作 .......