[經(jīng)濟學]發(fā)展經(jīng)濟學(3)(完整版)
【正文】 考慮人力資本情況下的索羅模型 ? 人力資本：承認在不同經(jīng)濟中勞動力會有不同的教育水平和工作技能 , :L 。人口增長率較高國家勞人均產(chǎn)出量較高；動力人均資本量較高，儲蓄投資率較高國家勞）（)1/()1/(1)/()/(0???????????????dnsydnskkdnsyk?轉型動態(tài)分析－從非穩(wěn)態(tài)向穩(wěn)態(tài)過渡過程中，經(jīng)濟增長速率的變化 * kkdn?資本的平均產(chǎn)出遞減 / 1?? ?skksy)()(~/~~/~ 1 dnskdnkyskk ?????? ???轉型動態(tài)分析 ? 人均資本量的變化率：當經(jīng)濟體低于其穩(wěn)定狀態(tài)越遠，則增長率越大；經(jīng)濟體高于其穩(wěn)態(tài)越遠，經(jīng)濟體衰退越快。 infrastructures Criticism of HarrodDomar model Stability of economic growth Harrodian knifeedge ? 保證均衡增長： g=gw ? 一旦偏離均衡，即實際增長率與有保證增長率出現(xiàn)偏差，則這種偏離不會自行矯正，反而會加重 ? 如實際增長率低于有保證的增長率，在初期儲蓄率相同情況下，實際的資本產(chǎn)出比大于有保證的資本產(chǎn)出比，將出現(xiàn)資本品過剩，投資受到抑制，儲蓄率進一步下降，投資受到抑制，使實際增長率更低于均衡增長率 ? 如實際增長率高于有保證的增長率，則實際的資本產(chǎn)出率低于有保證的資本產(chǎn)出率，資本品不足會刺激投資，導致實際增長率進一步增大，更加偏離有保證的增長率，使得資本品更加不足 Stability of economic growth Harrodian knifeedge Stability of economic growth Harrodian knifeedge ? 黃金時代定理 : actual growth rate = warranted growth rate = natural growth rate of the labor force. Thus n = s/v is the necessary condition for economic growth. （ Joan Robinson： Golden Age rule ， Cambridge University） ? 自然增長率 取決于勞動力的增長速率和勞動生產(chǎn)率的增長速率 )//()/(//)/l o g (l o gl o g)/(LYLYLLYYLYLYLYLY????????? But s, v and n are determined independently and there is nothing that guarantees that s/v will be equal to n. thus the golden rule is very hard to achieve. ? It is a knifeedge growth rate (very unstable system, with no mechanism to bring the economy back to the equilibrium growth rate). ? When the economy is growing fast, it continues to grow even faster and goes beyond full employment (. high inflation), but when growth is slow, it continues to grow even slower (. high unemployment). 發(fā)展中國家的情況 ? 自然增長率高于有保證的增長率 ? 意味著有效勞動力增長高于資本積累速度，導致失業(yè)日益增長 ? 意味著計劃投資高于計劃儲蓄，產(chǎn)生通貨膨脹壓力 ? 要使自然增長率趨近有保證的增長率 控制人口規(guī)模 控制勞動生產(chǎn)率增長幅度：效率與就業(yè)的沖突 提高儲蓄率 使用勞動密集型技術降低所要求的資本－產(chǎn)出比 Neoclassical growth model ? In the HarrodDomar growth model, steadystate growth was unstable. In the popular term of the day, it was a knifeedge in the sense that any deviation from that path would result in a further move away from that path ? Robert M. Solow (1956), Trevor Swan (1956) and James E. Meade (1961) contested this conclus
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