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the sense that any deviation from that path would result in a further move away from that path ? Robert M. Solow (1956), Trevor Swan (1956) and James E. Meade (1961) contested this conclusion. They claimed that the capitaloutput ratio of the HarrodDomar model should not be regarded as exogenous. ? Neoclassical model : the capitaloutput ratio, v, was precisely the adjusting variable that would lead a system back to its steadystate growth path, . that v would move to bring s/v into equality with the natural rate of growth (n). The resulting model has bee famously known as the SolowSwan or simply the Neoclassical growth model. 新古典增長(zhǎng)理論的三個(gè)基本命題 ? 在長(zhǎng)期穩(wěn)定狀態(tài),產(chǎn)出的增長(zhǎng)來(lái)自于有效的勞動(dòng)力增長(zhǎng)率(即勞動(dòng)力的增長(zhǎng)率加上勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率的增長(zhǎng)率),與儲(chǔ)蓄率無(wú)關(guān),更高的儲(chǔ)蓄或投資比率被更高的資本-產(chǎn)出比抵消。 wellintegrated modity and money market。 I: total investment ?有保證的增長(zhǎng)率:這樣一種增長(zhǎng)率將引誘投資剛好等于計(jì)劃的儲(chǔ)蓄,保持資本完全被就業(yè),從而制造商愿意在未來(lái)以過(guò)去相同的比例進(jìn)行投資 The HarrodDomar Model IKYvsYS ??????() YvsY ??() wgvsYY???() HarrodDomar theory of economic growth ? The rate of growth of economic output I s determined jointly by the national saving ratio S and national capitaloutput ratio K ? The main obstacle on development is the relatively low level of new capital formation in most poor countries ? Justifying massive transfers of capital and technical assistance from developed to less developed nations ? Saving and investment is the necessary condition for economic growth but not the sufficient condition ? How about the ability of converting new capital effectively into high levels of output managerial petence。 Y: total output。 S: saving ratio。 有保證的增長(zhǎng)率 gw。 ? 斯密的報(bào)酬遞增觀點(diǎn)是新內(nèi)生經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)理論的核心思想 古典悲觀主義 TP* TP O W subsistence wage line P E2 W2 W1 E1 N1 N2 Labor Total production Original condition: Labor: ON1 Production: OP Wage:N1W1 Surplus:E1W1 Demand for labor increase Wages increase to E1N1N1W1 According to Malthusian theory of population, population will increase to ON2。 如機(jī)器的使用只有在市場(chǎng)規(guī)模較大情況下才有經(jīng)濟(jì)性,否則就會(huì)出現(xiàn)剩余產(chǎn)品。 機(jī)器的發(fā)明使同一個(gè)勞動(dòng)者可以從事多種工作。 勞動(dòng)分工提高勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率有三種途徑: 工人工作技能的提升,即邊干邊學(xué)。Theories of Development: A Comparative Analysis Chapter 3 Leading Theories of Economic Development: Five Approaches ? Classical Scenario 古典經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)理論 ? Linearstages