【正文】 answer to the most appropriate amount of shortterm borrowing. Several considerations must be included in proper analysis: ? Cash Reserves(現(xiàn)金儲(chǔ)備 ): investment in cash and marketable securities are zero NPV ? Maturity Hedging(期限匹配 ): avoiding maturity mismatching ? Term Structure(利率期限結(jié)構(gòu) ): shortterm interest rateslongterm interest rates 營(yíng)運(yùn)資金決策 ? 營(yíng)運(yùn)資金融資工具 ? Commercial Credit: Account payable, Note payable, Accrued expenses ? Unsecured Loans ? Nonmitted line of credit: (1)an informal arrangement that allows firms to borrow up to a previously specified limit without going through the normal paperwork。 融資決策－資本結(jié)構(gòu) MM Propositions Without Taxes Proposition I ( no taxes ): The value of the levered firm is the same as the value of the unlevered firm無(wú)論公司有無(wú)負(fù)債，其價(jià)值等于公司所有資產(chǎn)的預(yù)期收益額除以適于該公司風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)的報(bào)酬率。 Discount rate 15%, tax rate 34% Given numbers NPV Using SA ?? ???? 5 1 %)151( 90015001517 t t[10000*30%*(21)1791300]*(134%)+300=900 Only Market size changed from 1000 to 20220, other variables fixed ? 增量現(xiàn)金流不確定的處理方法 不確定條件的投資決策 U nc er ta in f ac to rs F ix ed a sse t in vt . P ro du ct p ric e M at er ia ls ’ s p ric e In de x In vt .P rogr am 10% +1 0% 10% +1 0% 10% +1 0% IR R (% ) 12 .7 8 13 .7 1 11 .9 9 9. 72 15 .5 1 15 .2 3 10 .0 8 10% 20% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Standard IRR 9% Program’s IRR % Product’s price Fixed assets investment 不確定因素變化率 A B C Materials’ price ? 增量現(xiàn)金流不確定的處理方法－敏感性分析的另一種表達(dá) 不確定條件的投資決策 方法三：盈虧平衡分析 BreakEven Analysis ?In profit quantity ?In NPV quantity )1()()1()()1()()1()(0)1()(****cccccTVPTDCQTDCTVPQTDCVQPQ?????????????????????????)1()()1()1()1()()1(])([***cccccccTVPTDTCE A CQTDTCE A CTVPQE A CDTDCVPQ?????????????????????????????Pprice, Vvariable costs per unit, Cfixed costs, Ddepreciation, Tctax rate, Q*breakeven sales units Equivalent Annual Costs Trd a teTrd a teAI n v e s tm e n tE A CAE A CI n v e s tm e n t00????? 折舊亦是固定成本之一部分 。P500 Ri RSamp。包括實(shí)物投資和金融投資兩大類(lèi)； ? 投資活動(dòng)的兩大特征：時(shí)間（延期消費(fèi)）和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)（未來(lái)不確定性）； ? 投資者的回報(bào)補(bǔ)償：（１）投資資金被占用的時(shí)間價(jià)值；（２）預(yù)期的通貨膨脹率；（３）未來(lái)收益的不確定性。 fPSfiPSi RR RRR R ?? ???? ?確定條件下的投資決策－貼現(xiàn)率估算 ? Nominal interest rate（名義利率） ? Real interest rate（實(shí)際利率） ? Real interest rate=(1+Nominal interest rate)/(1+Inflation rate)1 ? Real interest rate ? Nominal interest rateInflation rate ? Nominal cash flow（名義現(xiàn)金流） ? Real cash flow（實(shí)際現(xiàn)金流） ? Real cash flows must be discounted at the real rate ? Nominal cash flows must be discounted at the nominal rate Discount: Nominal or Real? 確定條件下的投資決策－通貨膨脹處理 ? 互斥項(xiàng)目新購(gòu)買(mǎi)決策－不對(duì)等期限處理 ? New Purchase Decision（新購(gòu)買(mǎi)決策） : suppose a firm must choose between two machine of unequal lives, both machines can do the same job, but they have different operating costs and will last for different time periods. A simple application of the NPV rule suggests that we should take the machine whose costs have the lower present value. This could lead to the wrong decision, though, because the lowercost machine may need to be replaced before the other one. How should we do? ? If we are choosing between two mutually exclusive projects that have different lives, the projects must be evaluated on an equallife basis. 確定條件下的投資決策－互斥項(xiàng)目 ? 互斥項(xiàng)目新購(gòu)買(mǎi)決策－不對(duì)等期限處理 Example 1(newpurchase decision): machine A costs $ 500, lasts three years, maintenance expenses $ 120 per year。 ? Firms should expect to receive the fair value for securities that they sell. Fair means that the price they receive for the securities they issue is the present value. Thus, valuable financing opportunities that arise from fooling investors are unavailable in efficient capital markets. ? Presuppositions: (1)efficient disclosure of information。 ? considering those costs from debt financing, such as bankruptcy cost and and agency costs. 融資決策－資本結(jié)構(gòu) ? Tax Shield Effects（節(jié)稅效應(yīng)）： VL = VU + TD, MM theory argued that the firm’s value rises with leverage in the presence of corporate taxes. 由于債務(wù)的利息是在稅前支付的，企業(yè)由此減少了所得稅的支付，由此獲得節(jié)稅利益。 (3) pensating balances required for SME. ? Secured Loans ? Accounts receivable financing ? Inventory loan 營(yíng)運(yùn)資金決策 ? 股利決策的重要性 (1) It determines what funds flow to investors and what funds are retained by the firm for reinvestment, which put an effect on corporate value。這種由于負(fù)債引起的普通股每股收益的波動(dòng)幅度大于 EBIT波動(dòng)幅度的現(xiàn)象被稱(chēng)為財(cái)務(wù)杠桿。 ? Measurable operating risks 企業(yè)的經(jīng)營(yíng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是可以衡量的，可以用 EBIT的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差來(lái)衡量，有相同經(jīng)營(yíng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的企業(yè)即處于同類(lèi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)； ? Riskfree debts 企業(yè)和個(gè)人的負(fù)債沒(méi)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，所以負(fù)債利率為無(wú)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)利率，此外，不論個(gè)人和企業(yè)舉債數(shù)額為多少，這個(gè)條件不變； ? Same expectation of EBIT 現(xiàn)在和將來(lái)的投資者對(duì)企業(yè)未來(lái) EBIT的估計(jì)完全相同，即投資者對(duì)公司未來(lái)收益和這些收益風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的預(yù)期是相等的； ? Zero growth 企業(yè)各期的現(xiàn)金流是固定的，形成等額年金流，企業(yè)各期的稅息前利潤(rùn)不變，即企業(yè)為 0增長(zhǎng)。 second, calculate the yearly cost for the old equipment, this cost likely rises over time because the machine’s maintenance expenses should increase with age. Replacement should occur right before the cost of the old equipment exceeds the EAC on the new equipment. 確定條件下的投資決策－互斥項(xiàng)目 Example 2 (replacement decision): BIKE is contemplating whether to replace an existing machine or to spend money overhauling it. BIKE currently pays no taxes. The replacement machine costs $9000 now and requires maintenance of $1000 at the end of every year for eight years. At the end of eight years it would have a salvage value of $2022 and would be sold. The existing machine requires increasing amounts of maintenance each year, and its salvage value falls each year, as shown below: ? 互斥項(xiàng)目設(shè)備更新決策－不對(duì)稱(chēng)期限處理 Year Maintenance Salvage Present $0 4000 1 1000 2500 2 2022 1500 3 3000 1000 4 4000 0 Suppose the maintenance fee is paid at the end of of the year, the machine will last for four more years before it falls apart