【正文】 fits Operating CF NPV 1500 0 0 0 1791 300 711 1380 1080 5120 1500 1000 2022 1000 1791 300 371 720 420 2980 1500 3000 6000 3000 1791 300 309 600 900 1517 1500 10000 20220 10000 1791 300 2689 5220 5520 17004 )()12( )()3001791()1()( )1()(* ????? ??????? ?????ccpr of i tne t TVP TDCQ23151528)()12()(15001500)1()()1(*50*?????????????????????????N P VTrd a t ecccN P VQAAI n v e s t me n tE A CTVPTDTCE A CQ?Q* profit ?Q*NPV 用凈利潤(rùn)口徑計(jì)算的盈虧平衡點(diǎn)銷量假設(shè) D=EAC, 即初始投資通過(guò)折舊得到彌補(bǔ)，這一計(jì)算忽視了初始投資的機(jī)會(huì)成本 (discount rate)= ? 增量現(xiàn)金流不確定的處理方法－盈虧平衡分析舉例 不確定條件的投資決策 方法四：期權(quán)法 OptionsAbandon or Expand M = NPV + Opt The market value of the project The value of the project without options to expand or contract The value of managerial options Notes: Conventional NPV analysis discounts a project’s cash flows estimated for a certain project life. The decision is whether to accept the project or reject it. In practice, managers can expand or contract the scope of a project at various moments over its life. In theory, all such managerial options should be included in the project’s value. The right of choice! ? 增量現(xiàn)金流不確定的處理方法 不確定條件的投資決策 Conventional Date 0 Date 1 units Cash Flow $ 1050 10 $ 100 in perpetuity Options a year after Abandon( Failure) $ 1050 0 $ 500 equipment salvage Expand( Success ) $ 1050 20 $ 200 in perpetuity Discount rate 10%, the probability of failure and success is the same (50%), should we launch the new product? %101%5050050:50%101001050:?????????????O p tN P VMO p t i o n sN P ValC o n v e n t i o n 7 7%101%50%102 0 0%505 0 01 0 01 0 5 0 ?????????N P V方法一： 方法二： C/r The expected cash flow from abandonment The expected cash flow from options ? 增量現(xiàn)金流不確定的處理方法－期權(quán)法舉例 不確定條件的投資決策 融資決策－基本邏輯 Current Assets Fixed Assets ?Tangible ?Intangible Current Liabilities Longterm Debts Shareholders’ Equity NPV:investment decision Financing Decision EMH and its implications for corporate finance Capital structure Decision Longterm financing and limits to the use of debt Financing sources Value of firm: from the perspective of assets value or assets return. Value of firm: from the perspective of the market value of debts and equities ? Equitystock（股權(quán)－股票） ? Bonds（債券） ? Preferred stock（優(yōu)先股） ? Convertible preferred stock（可轉(zhuǎn)換優(yōu)先股） ? Convertible bonds（可轉(zhuǎn)換債） ? Warrants（認(rèn)股權(quán)證） 融資決策－長(zhǎng)期工具選擇 ? 有效市場(chǎng)假設(shè) ? Definition: An efficient market is one in which stock prices fully reflect available information. ? General implications for investors and for firms: ? Because information is reflected in prices immediately, investors should only expect to obtain a normal rate of return. Awareness of information when it is released does an invest no good. The price adjusts before the investor has time to trade on it。 Discount rate 15%, tax rate 34% Given numbers NPV Using SA ?? ???? 5 1 %)151( 90015001517 t t[10000*30%*(21)1791300]*(134%)+300=900 Only Market size changed from 1000 to 20220, other variables fixed ? 增量現(xiàn)金流不確定的處理方法 不確定條件的投資決策 U nc er ta in f ac to rs F ix ed a sse t in vt . P ro du ct p ric e M at er ia ls ’ s p ric e In de x In vt .P rogr am 10% +1 0% 10% +1 0% 10% +1 0% IR R (% ) 12 .7 8 13 .7 1 11 .9 9 9. 72 15 .5 1 15 .2 3 10 .0 8 10% 20% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Standard IRR 9% Program’s IRR % Product’s price Fixed assets investment 不確定因素變化率 A B C Materials’ price ? 增量現(xiàn)金流不確定的處理方法－敏感性分析的另一種表達(dá) 不確定條件的投資決策 方法三：盈虧平衡分析 BreakEven Analysis ?In profit quantity ?In NPV quantity )1()()1()()1()()1()(0)1()(****cccccTVPTDCQTDCTVPQTDCVQPQ?????????????????????????)1()()1()1()1()()1(])([***cccccccTVPTDTCE A CQTDTCE A CTVPQE A CDTDCVPQ?????????????????????????????Pprice, Vvariable costs per unit, Cfixed costs, Ddepreciation, Tctax rate, Q*breakeven sales units Equivalent Annual Costs Trd a teTrd a teAI n v e s tm e n tE A CAE A CI n v e s tm e n t00????? 折舊亦是固定成本之一部分 。 Equate to machine B with a fouryear annuity. Choose the less EAC machine. ::43????????bbaaE A CAE A CBE A CAE A CAAn annuity of $1 a year for three years, discounted at 10%.. Since EACB EACA, Prefer B!!! ? 互斥項(xiàng)目新購(gòu)買決策－不對(duì)稱期限處理：年平均成本法 確定條件下的投資決策－互斥項(xiàng)目 ? 互斥項(xiàng)目設(shè)備更新決策－不對(duì)稱期限處理 ? Replacement Decision（設(shè)備更新決策） : when to replace an existing machine with a new one? ? First, calculate the EAC for the new equipment。 machine B costs $ 600, lasts four years, maintenance expenses $ 100 per year。500amp。P500 Ri RSamp。 投資決策－基本原理 投資學(xué)決策－基本原理 ? 決策依據(jù)：接受凈現(xiàn)值大于 0的投資行為 ? 確定條件下的投資決策 ? 現(xiàn)金流估算 ? 估算方法 ? 增量現(xiàn)金流 ? 沉沒(méi)成本與機(jī)會(huì)成本 ? 貼現(xiàn)率估算 ? 期限問(wèn)題（求極限） ? 通貨膨脹問(wèn)題 ? 互斥項(xiàng)目投資決策 ? 不確定條件下的投資決策 ? 估算方法 ? 從投資角度看，公司價(jià)值取決于其創(chuàng)造現(xiàn)金流的能力 ? 現(xiàn)金流估算的不同視角 ? 現(xiàn)金流量表 ? 金融角度的現(xiàn)金流 ? 注意： ? 凈利潤(rùn) Net Ine ? 自由現(xiàn)金流 Free Cash Flow(FCF) ? 計(jì)算經(jīng)營(yíng)現(xiàn)金流時(shí)未考慮應(yīng)收帳款是因?yàn)閼?yīng)收帳款在凈營(yíng)運(yùn)資金的變動(dòng)額中已經(jīng)考慮了 ? 在中國(guó)，現(xiàn)金流量表的編制很少有正確的， “ 其他與經(jīng)營(yíng)活動(dòng)有關(guān)的現(xiàn)金流 ” 一項(xiàng)往往很大 確定條件下的投資決策－現(xiàn)金流估算 現(xiàn)金流量表 經(jīng)營(yíng)活動(dòng)現(xiàn)金流 凈利潤(rùn) ＋折舊 ＋遞延稅款 流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)和流動(dòng)負(fù)債變動(dòng)額 －應(yīng)收帳款 －存貨 ＋應(yīng)付帳款 ＋應(yīng)付費(fèi)用 ＋應(yīng)付票據(jù) 其他 經(jīng)營(yíng)活動(dòng)現(xiàn)金流合計(jì) 投資活動(dòng)現(xiàn)金流 －長(zhǎng)期資產(chǎn)購(gòu)置現(xiàn)金支出 ＋長(zhǎng)期資產(chǎn)處置現(xiàn)金流入 投資活動(dòng)現(xiàn)金流合計(jì) 融資活動(dòng)現(xiàn)金流 －到期償付債務(wù)（含到期票據(jù)） ＋新增長(zhǎng)期負(fù)債 －股利支出 －股票回購(gòu) ＋新股發(fā)行 融資活動(dòng)現(xiàn)金流合計(jì) 現(xiàn)金流凈變動(dòng)額（對(duì)應(yīng)資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表） 金融視角的現(xiàn)金流 公司現(xiàn)金流 經(jīng)營(yíng)活動(dòng)現(xiàn)金流 稅息前利潤(rùn) ＋折舊 －當(dāng)期支付稅款 －資本支出 長(zhǎng)期資產(chǎn)購(gòu)置現(xiàn)金支出 －長(zhǎng)期資產(chǎn)處置現(xiàn)金流入 －凈營(yíng)運(yùn)資金變動(dòng)額 本年凈營(yíng)運(yùn)資金 －上年凈營(yíng)運(yùn)資金 合計(jì) 公司投資者的現(xiàn)金流 債權(quán)人 利息 ＋到期償付債務(wù) －長(zhǎng)期債務(wù)融資 權(quán)益方 紅利 ＋股票（權(quán)）回購(gòu) －新股發(fā)行 合計(jì) Calculate from EBIT,not aftertaxation profit, so curre