第林業(yè)企業(yè)市場營銷(存儲版)
【正文】 ds a. Delphi (德爾菲法 ) consult and synthesize the opinions from different experts the experts will give their opinions independently the process will be repeated many times until the opinions from experts are identical b. Analysis of related factors(相關(guān)因素分析法 ) analyze the change of the main factors which related to the products selling, in order to forecast the demand development. (2) Quantitative methods (定量方法 ) a. Order analysis (序列分析法 ) arrange the investigated data in an order of time, then try to use mathematic method to make extension of the order to forecast the development trend in the future. the simplest method is use the simple arithmetic mean(簡單算術(shù)平均值 ) of the order as the forecast in the future another method is called shifting mean method(移動平均法 ). The method will be shown by the following simple example: Example: the forecast of poplar(楊樹 ) timber market price the history data: (yuan per cubic meter) Year 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 Price 640 700 680 710 740 720 The arithmetic mean is: 697, this could be used as the forecasted price in year 2020, but…… The shifting mean method: year price Shifting mean trend for each term Mean trend for three term 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 640 700 680 710 740 720 740 673 697 710 723 24 13 13 17 Note: each term is three years The forecasted price of 2020 = 723 + 17 = 740 Section two The marketing management of forestry enterprise(林業(yè)企業(yè)市場營銷 ) What is marketing management? It is the management process in which the modity or service could be
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