在合并的欲望涌動(dòng)：并購(gòu)趨勢(shì)與分析外文翻譯(存儲(chǔ)版)
【正文】 濟(jì)和股票市場(chǎng)改善時(shí)。對(duì)于 2020 年來說，全球并購(gòu)量是 2 萬億美元，約為過去五年的平均水平的一半以上。而兼并和收購(gòu)可以在形成的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)格局中發(fā)揮重要的作用，并能對(duì)公司價(jià)值產(chǎn)生很大的影響。研究表明，大約有三分之二的收購(gòu)公司在上市并購(gòu)交易中摧毀了股東價(jià)值。 最近一個(gè) 由三個(gè)管理學(xué)教授所作的研究表明，如果一公司在收購(gòu)交易早期普遍股價(jià)上漲，那么在購(gòu)買后股票價(jià)格往往下跌。此外，公司運(yùn)作的越早，一般在交易中可以得到越便宜的價(jià)格，通常對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)要晚于公司的行為。最后，融資的形式在確定股東回報(bào)周期里起著決定性的作用。此外，有一種看法認(rèn)為，私人股本公司，因?yàn)椴蝗菀资芄_市場(chǎng)的壓力，可以行使更多的優(yōu)化資金分配的決策。其中包括甲骨文和太陽(yáng)微系統(tǒng)公司、百事可樂公司和百事裝瓶集團(tuán)及民族生活和特瑪。 信貸市場(chǎng)的改善是令人鼓舞的，但銀行不可能用很快的時(shí)間回到危機(jī)前的模式。根據(jù) 2020 年上半年的發(fā)展趨勢(shì)，我們估計(jì) 2020 年的私人股權(quán)并購(gòu)約 700 億美元或34％的交易總額，比過去十年的平均值低 15％。當(dāng)公司宣布交易，投資者應(yīng)該關(guān)注三個(gè)問題： ？ ，選擇用股票支付這筆交易而非現(xiàn)金？ ？ 。例如，加州公共雇員退休系統(tǒng)作為美國(guó)最大的養(yǎng)老金計(jì)劃準(zhǔn)備減少其分配超過 60％的私人股本。美國(guó)發(fā)行的公司債券在 2020 年達(dá)到了 萬億美元的年度紀(jì)錄，領(lǐng)先于 2020 年的發(fā)行量，比 2020年上漲了近 34％，這一增長(zhǎng)中的大部分建立在 2020年信貸凍結(jié)期間的潛在需求。隨著企業(yè)越來越注重價(jià)值鏈中的某一個(gè)部分，使得最近幾十年來的趨勢(shì)走向了更細(xì)的專業(yè)化。 金融買家通常是一些私人股本的收購(gòu)公司、業(yè)務(wù)部門、或資產(chǎn)，并尋求提高經(jīng)營(yíng)業(yè)績(jī)的產(chǎn)品。壓力消退的并購(gòu)蘊(yùn)積了繁榮，使財(cái)政資源管理處能更合理的評(píng)估收購(gòu)目標(biāo)和收購(gòu)價(jià)值。 在這個(gè)周期的早期有幾個(gè) 好處，包括選擇一個(gè)更大的潛在目標(biāo)和獲得購(gòu)買廉價(jià)資產(chǎn)的能力。收購(gòu)方可以通過支付低保費(fèi)和執(zhí)行相關(guān)業(yè)務(wù)增加他們成功的機(jī)會(huì)。因?yàn)橥顿Y者有強(qiáng)烈的動(dòng)機(jī)去正確評(píng)價(jià)一個(gè)交易的經(jīng)濟(jì)價(jià)值，而股票價(jià)格的變動(dòng)公告常常是一個(gè)優(yōu)秀的交易晴雨表的可取之處。研究表明，大約有 2%3%的上市公司在一些特定年度會(huì)被收購(gòu)。就 2020 年的交易量而言，僅是 07 年的一半，使得股市大幅下跌。A to be about $70 billion in 2020, or 34% of total deals, much lower than the 15% average over the past decade . For the foreseeable future, private equity deals will likely be smaller, and will include more upfront cash. Lower amounts of leverage may reduce returns, as the use of leverage has accounted for between onequarter and onethird of returns. Transaction fees of about 1 to 2 percent will e under pressure as well, as fees this high are hard to justify in an environment of lower expected returns. Implications for Investors Resurgent Mamp。A deals fail to create value for buyers is that acquirers tend to overpay for targets. A host of factors might explain this tendency, including an overly optimistic assessment of market potential, overestimation of synergies, poor due diligence, and hubris. But while deals are harmful for the shareholders of acquirers on average, some buyers do create value. Acquirers can increase their chance of success by paying low premiums and executing on operational improvement. Te research points to another reason some acquirers succeed: good timing. A recent study by three professors of management showed that panies that do deals early in an acquisition wave generally enjoy shareprice rises, while those that buy later tend to sufer stockprice declines. Acquirers at the beginning of a wave see their shares increase more than 4% above what would be expected, based on past performance and market trends, over the three weeks following the Mamp。P 500 Index over the past 15 years. Te strong rally in equities of the March 2020 lows, sharply improved credit conditions, solid nonfnancial corporate balance sheets, and panies seeking to enhance their strategic positions all point to more deals. Notably, research shows that panies making acquisitions in the early part of the cycle deliver better returns to their shareholders, on average, than those that act toward the end of the cycle. Source: Bloomberg, Reuters estimates。A) boom. Historically,upswings in deal activity have coincided with improvements in the economy and the stock market. Figure 1 shows the relationship between deal volume and the price level of the Samp。A economics, looked at the persistence of returns for deals that the market ini
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