道橋外文翻譯--發(fā)展中國家公路bot方案的經(jīng)濟(jì)評價-公路隧道(存儲版)
【正文】 iments with different scenarios are conducted on the model in order to draw inferences and hence measure the risk involved. It is thus possible to pre operate the system without even actually incurring the expenses. Input to Model The basic input to the simulation model for BOT projects can be broadly divided into three categories namely policy parameters, macroeconomic indicators and stochastic input variables. Policy Parameters These are crucial decision variables and under total control of the granting agency, usually the government. The important policy variables include construction period, concession period and the mode wise toll rates. Since, toll structure is fed as an input the model can acmodate any desired bination of toll rates forvarious modes. MacroEconomic Indicators The important feature of these variables is that they are governed by the situation prevailing in the country and are not under the control of the decision makers investing in the BOT project. The variables under this head with respect to BOT projects prise of interest rate, discount rate, inflation rate and debtequity ratio. Stochastic Input Variables The variable that cannot be determined accurately and are hence uncertain es, under this class of variables. For BOT projects, this class contains construction, maintenance and operation costs and the number of vehicles using the facility. Assumptions The basic assumption in the use of simulation model for BOT projects are the following: 1. Repayment of debt and interest would start only after one year of operation (moratorium period). 2. All costs and revenues are discounted using a mon discount rate. 3. Annual maintenance cost is taken as a percentage of construction cost for the first year of operation and is assumed to increase at the inflation rate for subsequent years. 發(fā)展中國家公路 BOT 方案的經(jīng)濟(jì)評價 摘要 過去十年間許多發(fā)展中國家開放經(jīng)濟(jì)，更多的私營部門參與到公路基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施項目中來。附錄 1 英語翻譯 FINANCIAL EVALUATION OF ROAD PROJECTS UNDER BOT SCHEME IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES ABSTRACT The past decade has witnessed many developing countries opening up their economy resulting in greater private sector participation in road infrastructure projects. These countries traditionally followed economic evaluation for the project appraisal. The economic evaluation includes intangible costs and benefits of the project which do not appear in cash flow statement. Hence the economic evaluation cannot indicate the financial performance of a project. Therefore, financial evaluation is important in the context of privatization and mercialization of road projects under BOT scheme. Even though such approaches are very mon in developed countries, the financing methods, tax rates and accounting techniques are quite different in developing countries. Therefore, to examine the financial performance of the project and to determine the risks involved, sound financial model are necessary. This paper presents a simulation based financial model for BOT projects. The model takes the length of road, cost of construction volume of traffic, mode wise toll rates and other project specific details as input, performs financial evaluation, and calculates IRR and NPV for project and equity separately. In addition, the model also performs sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis on critical project parameters. A case study of a 40 km road expansion project from Pune (India) has been taken to demonstrate the working of the simulation model. The model gave financially sound project and equity IRR. The sensitivity analysis showed volume of traffic and toll rates as the most sensitive parameters to financial performance for the given project.
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