道橋外文翻譯--發(fā)展中國(guó)家公路bot方案的經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)價(jià)-公路隧道(文件)
【正文】 the working of the simulation model. The model gave financially sound project and equity IRR. The sensitivity analysis showed volume of traffic and toll rates as the most sensitive parameters to financial performance for the given project. INTRODUCTION Studies show that transport generates growth by facilitating trade, both nationally and internationally, and by increasing access to health and education facilities as well as local and national amenities. At the macroeconomic level, crosscountry studies have confirmed that investment in transport raises growth by increasing the social return to private investment. On the other hand, at the microeconomic level, transport improvements directly lower agricultural input prices and hence production costs, increase access to markets and hence diversification of outputs, and indirectly facilitate the development of the nonagricultural rural economy1. The importance of transport does not diminish as countries industrialize. International trade in merchandise, and by implication the movement of goods, grew on average throughout the world by % per annum between 1980 and 19922. Until the 1980s, transport infrastructure in developing countries was primarily provided by the public sector, for all modes of transportation. In transport service provision, railways were usually a public sector monopoly。 the financial analysis bees extremely important. The financial analysis over the life of the project enables the developer to measure the risk on returns and provides an insight into the financial viability of the project. The analysis of projects is necessarily based on uncertain future events and involves implicit or explicit probability judgments. There is considerable uncertainty in the capital cost estimates. It is not unusual that road designs, on which the cost estimates are based, may be changed during construction. This necessitates sensitivity or switching value analysis to minimize risk7. The risk analysis gives critical variables and assesses how likely deviations are, and identifies the factors that are likely to create the greatest risks for the project. In developed nations, the models to evaluate the financial performance of Build Operate and Transfer (BOT) projects already exist. In UK Net Present Value (NPV) of the cashflows is calculated under different scenarios as a measure of financial performance of the BOT projects8. However, in France Internal Rate of Return (IRR) is also used along with NPV for financial analysis of the project9. Since, infrastructure projects are quite different from industrial projects。 the gestation period is also quite long and hence its takes a long time for a project to show positive cash flow. To study the dynamic behavior of such projects, financial analysts rely on mathematical models. Experiments with different scenarios are conducted on the model in order to draw inferences and hence measure the risk involved. It is thus possible to pre operate the system without even actually incurring the expenses. Input to Model The basic input to the simulation model for BOT projects can be broadly divided into three categories namely policy parameters, macroeconomic indicators and stochastic input variables. Policy Parameters These are crucial decision variables and under total control of the granting agency, usually the government. The important policy variables include construction period, concession period and the mode wise toll rates. Since, toll structure is fed as an input the model can acmodate any desired bination of toll rates forvarious modes. MacroEconomic Indicators The important feature of these variables is that they are governed by the situation prevailing in the count
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