中國全要素生產(chǎn)率估算與分析課件-免費(fèi)閱讀
【正文】 :09:1800:09:18April 1, 2023 1意志堅(jiān)強(qiáng)的人能把世界放在手中像泥塊一樣任意揉捏。 2023年 4月 上午 12時(shí) 9分 :09April 1, 2023 1少年十五二十時(shí)，步行奪得胡馬騎。 上午 12時(shí) 9分 18秒 上午 12時(shí) 9分 00:09: 沒有失敗，只有暫時(shí)停止成功！。 00:09:1800:09:1800:094/1/2023 12:09:18 AM 1以我獨(dú)沈久，愧君相見頻。 大力發(fā)展高技術(shù)產(chǎn)業(yè)。 而且重工業(yè)需要的是專業(yè)技術(shù)產(chǎn)業(yè)工人，無法吸納中國數(shù)以億計(jì)教育水平較低的農(nóng)村勞動(dòng)力。 霍夫曼理論，這個(gè)主張發(fā)展重化工業(yè)的１９世紀(jì)時(shí)期的粗放增長型理論并不適合中國。 a respectable performance, but by no means extraordinary. (Young, 2023) Chinese growth rates, 19781998 Source: Young (2023) Total factor productivity change in China’s farming sector: 19521989 (Wen, 1993) Five studies were involved ? Tang (1982) ? Lin (1990) ? Hayami Ruttan (1985) ? Wiens (1982) ? Wong (1986) Factor shares TFP estimates were pared. China’s agriculture (Wen 1993) Productivity in Chinese industry (19801996) (Jeffeson, et al, 2023) Longterm productivity increase, with growth rates declining during the 1990’s. Productivity outes outside the state and collective sectors are modest, with sharholding enterprises suffering productivity declines. Average annual growth of TFP (19801996) 胡鞍鋼：近年來“資本深化”加速 在 19952023年間，中國 GDP年增長率為 %，低于19781995年的增長率（ %）； 人均 GDP增長率為 %，也低于 19781995年期間的水平（ %）； 勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率年增長率為 %，略低于前一時(shí)期（ %）；資本存量增長率為 %，明顯高于前一時(shí)期（ %）； 就業(yè)增長為 %，更是低于前一時(shí)期（ %）； 人力資本（指 15歲以上人口受教育年限）為 %，略高于前一時(shí)期（為 %）； 資本生產(chǎn)率為負(fù)增長（ %），而前一時(shí)期為 %； 人均勞動(dòng)力占資本存量年增長率為 %，為建國以來最高、最快，說明“資本深化”過程加速。 The SolowSwan 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長模型 （ with technical change） LKtALKFsdtdKL ?????????? )(,1xtetA ?)( 人均資本裝備率的動(dòng)態(tài)方程 kntAksFkktAksFnkkdtdKLnLKdtdKLdtdLLKdtdKLdtLKdk)())(,())(,(111)/(2????????????????? 穩(wěn)態(tài)人均收入取決于技術(shù)進(jìn)步率 (TFP) 集約型與粗放式增長模式的區(qū)別 A few clarifications on the concept of TFP(G) TFP growth occurs when technology progresses and efficiency improves. The former is usually a longrun concept in the context of growth theory, and the latter can be a shortrun phenomenon. A high TFP growth is not necessarily profitable. TFP growth should not be used as a target in economic planning, but might be estimated for forecasting purpose. A high TFP growth may not be always desirable, but one should be definately worried with a sustained period of low or negative growth in TFP. 五、中國省際全要素生產(chǎn)率的實(shí)證分析 改革時(shí)期的省際數(shù)據(jù)（ 19792023） Malmquist指數(shù)法 1978－ 95年間為省際 TFP高增長期（ %） ? 技術(shù)進(jìn)步為主 1996－ 01年期出現(xiàn)省際 TFP低增長期（ %） ? 技術(shù)進(jìn)步速度減慢、技術(shù)效率有所下降 總體經(jīng)濟(jì)效率：工業(yè)中存在的問題 Policy burdens Suboptimal scale in production Limited capacity to innovate Weak financial discipline Sheltered firms vs. Less favored firms 總體經(jīng)濟(jì)效率：金融系統(tǒng)存在的問題 Credit is insufficiently allocated Lack of external discipline It is still mostly state owned Large proportion of Nonperforming loans A vicious circle: SOE?financial sector?SOE?financial sector 總體經(jīng)濟(jì)效率：省際生產(chǎn)的政治經(jīng)濟(jì)因素 Twenty years of economic reform in the PRC have resulted in a fragmented internal market with fiefdoms controlled by local officials whose economic and political ties to protected industry resemble those of the Latin American economies of past decades. (Young, 2023) The “Discovery” of Recent Productivity Slow Down (Source： Hu Zheng， State of the Nation Reprot, 2023) Unit： % 195278 197895 19952023 2023 Population GDP GDP per capita
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