中國全要素生產(chǎn)率估算與分析課件-全文預覽
【正文】 重加權： Divisia index (2) 生產(chǎn)函數(shù)與技術進步 A stable relationship between output, inputs, and time exists: Rate of technical change is defined as: dif ferent. bemay and inpu t th eof po nents th eand forms functi onalsame th ebenot need ),( and ),( wheretTTTttXXTXftXf Divisia indexes and rate of technical change Total differentiation of with respect to time yields Dividing through by y gives Under profit maximization, output elassticity equals input Shares in total revenue: or Divisia input index ? 應用實例：技術進步與總量生產(chǎn)函數(shù) (Solow, 1957) 增長核算公式 Technical change is a shift in the production function (3) 管理（技術）效率與全要素生產(chǎn)率 Farrell (1957)技術效率度量 一般化的 Farrell技術效率度量 (F248。rnqvist Index (1976) Geometric Mean of Malmquist Indexes (1982) Malmquist Index (1982) TFP Deposition (1982) Malmquist TFP Index deposition (1992,1994) Devisia index Farrell measure Shephard CCR Diewert CCD Nishimizu Page F228。這是由于在此類模型中人們通常假定資本的邊際產(chǎn)出率遞減。 The SolowSwan 經(jīng)濟增長模型 （ with technical change） LKtALKFsdtdKL ?????????? )(,1xtetA ?)( 人均資本裝備率的動態(tài)方程 kntAksFkktAksFnkkdtdKLnLKdtdKLdtdLLKdtdKLdtLKdk)())(,())(,(111)/(2????????????????? 穩(wěn)態(tài)人均收入取決于技術進步率 (TFP) 集約型與粗放式增長模式的區(qū)別 A few clarifications on the concept of TFP(G) TFP growth occurs when technology progresses and efficiency improves. The former is usually a longrun concept in the context of growth theory, and the latter can be a shortrun phenomenon. A high TFP growth is not necessarily profitable. TFP growth should not be used as a target in economic planning, but might be estimated for forecasting purpose. A high TFP growth may not be always desirable, but one should be definately worried with a sustained period of low or negative growth in TFP. 五、中國省際全要素生產(chǎn)率的實證分析 改革時期的省際數(shù)據(jù)（ 19792023） Malmquist指數(shù)法 1978－ 95年間為省際 TFP高增長期（ %） ? 技術進步為主 1996－ 01年期出現(xiàn)省際 TFP低增長期（ %） ? 技術進步速度減慢、技術效率有所下降 總體經(jīng)濟效率：工業(yè)中存在的問題 Policy burdens Suboptimal scale in production Limited capacity to innovate Weak financial discipline Sheltered firms vs. Less favored firms 總體經(jīng)濟效率：金融系統(tǒng)存在的問題 Credit is insufficiently allocated Lack of external discipline It is still mostly state owned Large proportion of Nonperforming loans A vicious circle: SOE?financial sector?SOE?financial sector 總體經(jīng)濟效率：省際生產(chǎn)的政治經(jīng)濟因素 Twenty years of economic reform in the PRC have resulted in a fragmented internal market with fiefdoms controlled by local officials whose economic and political ties to protected industry resemble those of the Latin American economies of past decades. (Young, 2023) The “Discovery” of Recent Productivity Slow Down (Source： Hu Zheng， State of the Nation Reprot, 2023) Unit： % 195278 197895 19952023 2023 Population GDP GDP per capita Employment Labor Productivity Capital Stock Human Capital Capital Productivity Capital per capita TFPa () () () TFPb () () () TFPc () () TFP Growth and
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