【正文】 tly debated in the academic circles .In particular, Myron Gordon and John Lintner argued that Ks decreases as the dividend payout is increase because investor are less certain of receiving the capital gains which are supposed to result from retaining earnings than they are of receiving dividend payments MM disagreed .They argued that Ks independent of dividend policy, which implies that investors are indifferent between D1/P0 and g and, hence, between dividends and capital gains. MM called the GordonLintner argument the birdinthehand fallacy because, in MM’s view, most investors plan to reinvest their dividends in the stock of the same or similar firms, and, in any event, the riskiness of the firm’s cash flows to investors in the long run is determined by the riskiness of operating cash flows, not by dividend payout policy. TAX PREFERENCE THEORY There are three taxrelated reasons for thinking that investors might prefer a low dividend payout to a high payout: (1) Recall from Chapter II that longterm capital gains are taxed at a rate of 20 percent, whereas dividend ine is taxed at effective rates which go up to percent. Therefore, wealthy investors might prefer to have panies retain and plow earnings back into the business. Earnings growth would presumably lead to stock prices increases, and thus low taxed capital gains would be substituted for highertaxed dividends. (2)Taxes are not paid on the gains until a stock is sold. Due to time value effects, a dollar of taxes paid in the future has a lower effective cost than a dollar paid today. (3) If a stock is held by someone until he or she dies, no capital gains tax is due at allthe beneficiaries who receive the stock can use the stock’s value on the death day as their cost basis and thus pletely escape the capital gains tax. Because of these tax advantages, investors may prefer to have panies retain most of their earnings. IF so, investors would be willing to pay more for lowpayout panies than for otherwise similar high payout panies. There three theories offer contradictory advice to corporate managers, so which, if any, should we believe? The most logical way to proceed is to test the theories empirically. Many such tests have been conducted, but their results have been unclear. There are two reasons for this(1)For a valid statistical test, things other than dividend policy must be held constant。這方面的偏好可以通個(gè)穩(wěn)定增產(chǎn)的股票價(jià)值評(píng)估模型來(lái)考慮：gDS ???? 1^ 如果公司增加了股利支付率就增加 1D ,單獨(dú)分子可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致股票價(jià)格上升。在這一部分文獻(xiàn)中，我們將分析評(píng)價(jià)了投資者偏好的三個(gè)理論：（ 1）股利無(wú)關(guān)理論；（ 2）“一鳥(niǎo)在手”理論；（ 3）稅收偏好理論。公司價(jià)值只是由于基本盈利能力和經(jīng)營(yíng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)所決定。因此，鼓勵(lì)政策是不相關(guān)的。顯然，稅收和交易費(fèi)用是確實(shí)存在的，因此 MM 股利無(wú)關(guān)理論可能是不正確的。邁倫?林特納就認(rèn)為，隨著股利支付的增加， Ks 會(huì)下降，因?yàn)殡m然可以假定留存收益會(huì)帶來(lái)相應(yīng)的資本利得，但是與得到支付的股利相比，投資者獲得收益的確定性要小。而且在任何情況下，對(duì)于投資者來(lái)說(shuō)，從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看，公司現(xiàn)金流量的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是由該公司的經(jīng)營(yíng)現(xiàn)金流量風(fēng)險(xiǎn)來(lái)決定的，卻不是由股利政策決定的。股利收益增長(zhǎng)會(huì)導(dǎo)致股價(jià)上漲，從而較低稅負(fù)的資本利得會(huì)替代較高稅負(fù)的股利。接受股票受益人可以把股票原持有人去世那天的股票價(jià)值作為其成本基礎(chǔ)，從而可以完全避免資本利得所要交的賦稅。這方面的研究已經(jīng)展開(kāi) ,但他們的結(jié)果還不太清楚。這兩 種情況沒(méi)有一個(gè)能夠成立 :我們不能發(fā)現(xiàn)一家上市公司只在股利政策方面有差異 ,也無(wú)法得到準(zhǔn)確的公司資本成本的估計(jì)。一般投資者喜歡高額股利 ,而另一些則喜歡所有的收益都是資本利得。 MM認(rèn)為投資者對(duì)股利政策的反應(yīng)并不能夠表明投資者更喜歡通過(guò)股利來(lái)獲得收益。然而 , 頻繁的轉(zhuǎn)換會(huì)導(dǎo)致無(wú)效率。當(dāng)然 ,新政策也可能吸引比公司更大的委托人 ,在這種情況下 ,股票價(jià)格會(huì)上升。造成這個(gè)原因是不對(duì)稱的信息，信息的不對(duì)稱在以下兩個(gè)方面影響管理決策： 一般來(lái)說(shuō)，管理者不愿意發(fā)行新股，首先，新股會(huì)導(dǎo)致發(fā)行費(fèi)用 —— 傭金、薪酬等 —— 通過(guò)留存收益增加公司的權(quán)益資本，就可以避免這些費(fèi)用。 股利變化是一種信號(hào)，反映了經(jīng)理對(duì)公司未來(lái)前景的看法。 股利政策市在計(jì)劃過(guò)程中制定的，因此未來(lái)的投資機(jī)會(huì)和經(jīng)營(yíng)現(xiàn)金流量存在不確定性。進(jìn)一步說(shuō)，穩(wěn)定的股利可以緩解投資者的不確定心里預(yù)期，因而可以減少發(fā)行新股的負(fù)面影響，因此絕對(duì)是必需的。同時(shí) ,公司穩(wěn)定的投資機(jī)會(huì)是可以延期的，那么公司可以設(shè)定較高的股利支付率。因此 ,現(xiàn)在的股利政策受過(guò)去制定的政策的限定 ,因此要設(shè)定設(shè)置接下來(lái)的 5 年的政策 ,一定首先回顧相關(guān)現(xiàn)狀開(kāi)