【正文】 that there is only a remote chance that the dividend will have to be reduce in the future. Of course, unexpectedly large dividend increases can be used to provide positive signals. the actual payout ratio in any. The dividend decision is made during the planning process, so there is uncertainty about future investment opportunities and operating cash flows. Thus, the actual payout ratio in any year will probably be above or below the firm’s longrange target. However, the dollar dividend should be maintained, or increase as planned policy simply cannot be maintained. A steady or increasing steam of dividends over the long run signals that the firm’s financial condition is under control. Further, investors uncertain is decreased by stable dividend, so a steady dividend stream reduces the negative effect of a stock issue, should one bee absolutely necessary. In general, firms with superior investment opportunities should set lower payouts, hence retain more earnings, than firms with poor investment opportunities. The degree of uncertainty also influences the decision. If there is a great deal of uncertainty in the forecasts of free cash flows, which are defined here as the firm’s operating cash flows minus mandatory equity investments, then it is best to be conservative and to set a lower current dollar dividend. Also, firms with postponable investment opportunities can afford to set a higher dollar dividend, because in times of stress investments can be postponed for a year or two, thus increasing the cash available for dividends. Finally, firms whose cost of capital is largely unaffected by change in the debt ratio can also afford to set a higher payout ratio, because they can, in times of stress, more easily issue additional debt to maintain the capital budgeting program without having to cut dividends or issue stock. Firms have only one opportunity to set the opportunity payment from scratch. Therefore, today’s dividend decisions are constrained by policies that were set in the past, hence setting a policy for the next five years necessarily begins with a review of the current situation. Although we have outlined a rational process for managers to use when setting their firms’ dividend policies, dividend policy still remains one of the most judgmental decisions that firms must make. For this reason, dividend policy is always set by the board of directors the financial staff analyzes the situation and makes a remendation, but the board makes the final decision. Source: Eugene F. Brigham. Joel , 2021. ―Fundamentals of financial‖ Aril,. 二、翻譯文章 譯文 ： 股利政策 盈利的公司常常面臨三個(gè)重要問題：（ 1）自由現(xiàn)金流量有多少應(yīng)該分配給股東？（ 2）怎么樣吧這些現(xiàn)金分配給股東，是通過增發(fā)股利還是回購本公司股票？（ 3）需要保持一個(gè)不變的股利支付政策，還是讓股利支付隨著各年度的情況不同而不同？ 當(dāng)財(cái)務(wù)經(jīng)理決定應(yīng)該付多少現(xiàn)金給股東時(shí)，他一定要記住，公司的目標(biāo)是股東價(jià)值最大化，目標(biāo)支付率作為現(xiàn)金股利支付的凈收益占總收益的百分比，應(yīng)該是根據(jù)投資者更偏好的股利還是資本利得來決定。投資者是偏好（ 1）以現(xiàn)金股利形式分配收益；還是偏好（ 2）回購股票或者吧收益重新 投資到公司？這兩者都會導(dǎo)致資本利得。這方面的偏好可以通個(gè)穩(wěn)定增產(chǎn)的股票價(jià)值評估模型來考慮：gDS ???? 1^ 如果公司增加了股利支付率就增加 1D ,單獨(dú)分子可能會導(dǎo)致股票價(jià)格上升。然而 ,如果 1D 提高了 ,就會減少錢用在再投資，會引起預(yù)期增長率下降 ,那就有可能降低股票的價(jià)格。因此 ,股利政策有任何改變將有兩個(gè)相反的結(jié)果。所以 ,公司最優(yōu)股利政策是必須在現(xiàn)在行使的股利和未來增長之間取得一個(gè)平衡，使股票價(jià)格達(dá)到 最高。在這一部分文獻(xiàn)中，我們將分析評價(jià)了投資者偏好的三個(gè)理論：（ 1）股利無關(guān)理論；（ 2）“一鳥在手”理論；（ 3）稅收偏好理論。 股利無關(guān)理論 有很多人認(rèn)為，股利分配政策對公司股票價(jià)值和資本成本都是沒有任何影響。如果股利政策沒有顯著的影響，那這個(gè)股利政策就是不相關(guān)。股利無關(guān)理論的主要提出的人是默頓? H?米勒和佛朗哥?莫迪哥萊尼。公司價(jià)值只是由于基本盈利能力和經(jīng)營風(fēng)險(xiǎn)所決定。換一句話說， MM 理論作者認(rèn)為，公司價(jià)值只是由其資產(chǎn)所創(chuàng)造的收益來決定的，而不是由于股利和留存收益之間是如何分割來決定的。 要如何理解 MM 理論關(guān)于股利政策無關(guān)的觀點(diǎn)，我們需