宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)consumption-全文預(yù)覽
【正文】 tion only if they are unanticipated. slide 42 CHAPTER 16 Consumption The Psychology of Instant Gratification ? Theories from Fisher to Hall assume that consumers are rational and act to maximize lifetime ，按照終生效用最大化來(lái)采取行動(dòng)。 ? PIH: current ine is subject to random, transitory fluctuations. 現(xiàn)期收入會(huì)容易出現(xiàn)隨機(jī)的，暫時(shí)性的波動(dòng)。 slide 34 CHAPTER 16 Consumption The Permanent Ine Hypothesis ? due to Milton Friedman (1957) ? Y = Y P + Y T where Y = current ine Y P = permanent ine average ine, which people expect to persist into the future Y T = transitory ine temporary deviations from average ine slide 35 CHAPTER 16 Consumption The Permanent Ine Hypothesis ? 消費(fèi)者面對(duì)收入暫時(shí)波動(dòng)時(shí)，會(huì)使用儲(chǔ)蓄和借款來(lái)平穩(wěn)消費(fèi) Consumers use saving amp。 Across households, ine varies more than wealth, so highine households should have a lower APC than lowine households. ?在長(zhǎng)期里，總財(cái)富和收入同時(shí)增長(zhǎng)， APC穩(wěn)定。 ? 宣布未來(lái)減稅 ?意味著未來(lái)時(shí)期的可分配收入增加。 …and her consumption may behave as in the Keynesian theory even though she is rational amp。 substitution effects. 也許，利息率對(duì)當(dāng)期的消費(fèi)根本沒(méi)有影響。 ? Fisher: 當(dāng)期的消費(fèi)僅取決于終生收入的現(xiàn)值，由于消費(fèi)者可以跨期借貸，獲得收入的時(shí)間是無(wú)關(guān)緊要的。 ? 消費(fèi)者選擇受到 an intertemporal budget constraint, 為當(dāng)期和未來(lái)消費(fèi)提供所有資源的衡量尺度。slide 0 CHAPTER 16 Consumption ?consumption slide 1 CHAPTER 16 Consumption 在本章，你將學(xué)到以下內(nèi)容 … 最經(jīng)典消費(fèi)理論的介紹 , 包括 : ? John Maynard Keynes: consumption and current ine ? Irving Fisher: intertemporal choice ? Franco Modigliani: the lifecycle hypothesis ? Milton Friedman: the permanent ine hypothesis ? Robert Hall: the randomwalk hypothesis ? David Laibson: the pull of instant gratification slide 2 CHAPTER 16 Consumption Keynes’s conjectures 1. 0 MPC 1 2. Average propensity to consume (APC ) falls as ine rises. (APC = C/Y ) 3. 收入是消費(fèi)的主要決定因素。 slide 7 CHAPTER 16 Consumption The Consumption Puzzle C Y Consumption function from long time series data (constant APC ) Consumption function from crosssectional household data (falling APC ) slide 8 CHAPTER 16 Consumption Irving Fisher and Intertemporal Choice ? 許多關(guān)于消費(fèi)理論工作的基礎(chǔ) . ? 假定消費(fèi)者是 forwardlooking 并且選擇當(dāng)期和未來(lái)時(shí)期的消費(fèi)來(lái)最大化終生效用。 slide 15 CHAPTER 16 Consumption Consumer preferences Marginal rate of substitution (MRS ): 消費(fèi)者愿意用多少單位的 C2 來(lái)替換一個(gè)單位的 C1. C1 C2 IC1 The slope of an indifference curve at any point equals the MRS at that point. 1 MRS slide 16 CHAPTER 16 Consumption Optimization 最優(yōu)的 (C1,C2) 組合是 the budget line just touches the highest indifference curve. C1 C2 O At the optimal point, MRS = 1+r slide 17 CHAPTER 16 Consumption How C responds to changes in Y Y1 or Y2 的增加shifts the budget line outward. C1 C2 結(jié)果 : 假設(shè) C1 and C2 都是正常品， C1 and C2 both increase, … 無(wú)論收入增加時(shí)發(fā)生在 in period 1 or pe
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