宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)consumption(文件)
【正文】 e Hypothesis ? due to Franco Modigliani (1950s) ? Fisher’s model says that consumption depends on lifetime ine, 人們?cè)噲D獲得平穩(wěn)消費(fèi)。但是實(shí)際上，老年的負(fù)儲(chǔ)蓄并沒有達(dá)到模型預(yù)期的成都 ?預(yù)防性儲(chǔ)蓄 ——壽命長，生病的可能性大。 Over the long run, ine variation is due mainly (if not solely) to variation in permanent ine, which implies a stable APC. The Permanent Ine Hypothesis slide 37 CHAPTER 16 Consumption The 1964 Tax Cut and the 1968 Tax Surcharge ? The tax cut of 1964 was announced as being a major and permanent reduction in tax rates。 PIH, 在模型中， forwardlooking consumers的消費(fèi)以預(yù)期的未來收入為基礎(chǔ) ? Hall adds the assumption of rational expectations, 人們使用所有可以獲得的信息來預(yù)測 future variables like ine. slide 40 CHAPTER 16 Consumption The RandomWalk Hypothesis ? If PIH is correct and consumers have rational expectations, then consumption should follow a random walk: changes in consumption should be unpredictable. ? 可以預(yù)計(jì)到的財(cái)富或者收入的變化已經(jīng)被考慮到預(yù)期的持久收入中，從而消費(fèi)不會(huì)變化。 ? In one survey, 76% said they were not saving enough for retirement. ? Laibson: The “pull of instant gratification” explains why people don’t save as much as a perfectly rational lifetime utility maximizer would 來安排儲(chǔ)蓄。 future consumption to maximize lifetime satisfaction of subject to an intertemporal budget constraint. ? Current consumption depends on lifetime ine, not current ine, provided consumer can borrow amp。 borrowing to smooth consumption in the face of transitory fluctuations in ine. CHAPTER 16 Consumption slide 49 Chapter Summary 5. Hall’s randomwalk hypothesis ? Combines PIH with rational expectations. ? Main result: changes in consumption are unpredictable, occur only in response to unanticipated changes in expected permanent ine. CHAPTER 16 Consumption slide 50 Chapter Summary 6. Laibson and the pull of instant gratification ? Uses psychology to understand consumer behavior. ? The desire for instant gratification causes people to save less than they rationally know they should. CHAPTER 16 Consumption slide 51 。 borrowing to smooth consumption. ? Consumption depends on ine amp。consumption depends primarily on current ine. ? Recent work: consumption also depends on ?預(yù)期未來收入 expected future ine ?財(cái)富 wealth ?利息率 interest rates ? 經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家仍然在爭論這些因素的重要性 Economists disagree over the relative importance of these factors, borrowing constraints, and psychological factors. Chapter Summary 1. Keynesian consumption theory ? Keynes’ conjectures ? MPC is between 0 and 1 ? APC falls as ine rises ? current ine is the main determinant of current consumption ? Empirical studies ? in household data amp。 slide 41 CHAPTER 16 Consumption Implication of the RW Hypothesis If consumers obey the PIH and have rational expectations, then policy changes will affect consump
研究報(bào)告相關(guān)推薦
鄂ICP備17016276號(hào)-1