宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)consumption-免費閱讀
【正文】 save. CHAPTER 16 Consumption slide 47 Chapter Summary 3. Modigliani’s lifecycle hypothesis ? Ine varies systematically over a lifetime. ? Consumers use saving amp。 ? 只有收入或者財富發(fā)生無法預(yù)計的變動，才會改變預(yù)期的持久收入，消費將會改變。 ?遺產(chǎn)動機(jī) ? 中國人口紅利和中國的高儲蓄率， 20年以后，中國的儲蓄率一定會下降。 ?財政政策在有借貸約束時更有力。 ? Both effects ? ?C2. Whether C1 rises or falls depends on the relative size of the ine amp。 slide 7 CHAPTER 16 Consumption The Consumption Puzzle C Y Consumption function from long time series data (constant APC ) Consumption function from crosssectional household data (falling APC ) slide 8 CHAPTER 16 Consumption Irving Fisher and Intertemporal Choice ? 許多關(guān)于消費理論工作的基礎(chǔ) . ? 假定消費者是 forwardlooking 并且選擇當(dāng)期和未來時期的消費來最大化終生效用。 ? 消費者選擇受到 an intertemporal budget constraint, 為當(dāng)期和未來消費提供所有資源的衡量尺度。 substitution effects. 也許，利息率對當(dāng)期的消費根本沒有影響。 ? 宣布未來減稅 ?意味著未來時期的可分配收入增加。 slide 34 CHAPTER 16 Consumption The Permanent Ine Hypothesis ? due to Milton Friedman (1957) ? Y = Y P + Y T where Y = current ine Y P = permanent ine average ine, which people expect to persist into the future Y T = transitory ine temporary deviations from average ine slide 35 CHAPTER 16 Consumption The Permanent Ine Hypothesis ? 消費者面對收入暫時波動時，會使用儲蓄和借款來平穩(wěn)消費 Consumers use saving amp。 slide 41 CHAPTER 16 Consumption Implication of the RW Hypothesis If consumers obey the PIH and have rational expectations, then policy changes will affect consumption only if they are unanticipated. slide 42 CHAPTER 16 Consumption The Psychology of Instant Gratification ? Theories from Fisher to Hall assume that consumers are rational and act to maximize lifetime ，按照終生效用最大化來采取行動。 borrowing to smooth consumption. ? Consumption depends on ine amp。 future consumption to maximize lifetime satisfaction of subject to an intertemporal budget constraint. ? Current consumption depends on lifetime ine, not current ine, provided consumer can borrow amp。 PIH, 在模型中， forwardlooking consumers的消費以預(yù)期的未來收入為基礎(chǔ) ? Hall adds the assumption of rational expectations, 人們使用所有可以獲得的信息來預(yù)測 future variables like ine. slide 40 CHAPTER 16 Consumption The RandomWalk Hypothesis ? If PIH is correct and consumers have rational expectations, then consumption should follow a random walk: changes in consumption should be unpredictable. ? 可以預(yù)計到的財富或者收入的變化已經(jīng)被考慮到預(yù)期的持久收入中，從而消費不會變化。但是實際上，老年的負(fù)儲蓄并沒有達(dá)到模型預(yù)期的成都 ?預(yù)防性儲蓄 ——壽命長，生病的可能性大。 ?有借貸約束的消費增量等于減稅量。 ? substitution effect: r 的上升會增加當(dāng)期消費的機(jī)會成本，導(dǎo)致 C1 的減少和 C2增加。 ? Simon Kuzs 表明 C/Y 在長時間序列數(shù)據(jù)表現(xiàn)得 very stable。 slide 9 CHAPTER 16 Consumption The basic twoperiod model ? Period 1: the present ? Period 2: the future ? Notation Y1, Y2 = ine in period 1, 2 C1, C2 = consumption in peri
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