宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)consumption(完整版)
【正文】 964 Tax Cut and the 1968 Tax Surcharge ? The tax cut of 1964 was announced as being a major and permanent reduction in tax rates。 ? In one survey, 76% said they were not saving enough for retirement. ? Laibson: The “pull of instant gratification” explains why people don’t save as much as a perfectly rational lifetime utility maximizer would 來(lái)安排儲(chǔ)蓄。 borrowing to smooth consumption in the face of transitory fluctuations in ine. CHAPTER 16 Consumption slide 49 Chapter Summary 5. Hall’s randomwalk hypothesis ? Combines PIH with rational expectations. ? Main result: changes in consumption are unpredictable, occur only in response to unanticipated changes in expected permanent ine. CHAPTER 16 Consumption slide 50 Chapter Summary 6. Laibson and the pull of instant gratification ? Uses psychology to understand consumer behavior. ? The desire for instant gratification causes people to save less than they rationally know they should. CHAPTER 16 Consumption slide 51 。consumption depends primarily on current ine. ? Recent work: consumption also depends on ?預(yù)期未來(lái)收入 expected future ine ?財(cái)富 wealth ?利息率 interest rates ? 經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家仍然在爭(zhēng)論這些因素的重要性 Economists disagree over the relative importance of these factors, borrowing constraints, and psychological factors. Chapter Summary 1. Keynesian consumption theory ? Keynes’ conjectures ? MPC is between 0 and 1 ? APC falls as ine rises ? current ine is the main determinant of current consumption ? Empirical studies ? in household data amp。 ? PIH: current ine is subject to random, transitory fluctuations. 現(xiàn)期收入會(huì)容易出現(xiàn)隨機(jī)的，暫時(shí)性的波動(dòng)。 Across households, ine varies more than wealth, so highine households should have a lower APC than lowine households. ?在長(zhǎng)期里，總財(cái)富和收入同時(shí)增長(zhǎng)， APC穩(wěn)定。 …and her consumption may behave as in the Keynesian theory even though she is rational amp。 ? Fisher: 當(dāng)期的消費(fèi)僅取決于終生收入的現(xiàn)值，由于消費(fèi)者可以跨期借貸，獲得收入的時(shí)間是無(wú)關(guān)緊要的。slide 0 CHAPTER 16 Consumption ?consumption slide 1 CHAPTER 16 Consumption 在本章，你將學(xué)到以下內(nèi)容 … 最經(jīng)典消費(fèi)理論的介紹 , 包括 : ? John Maynard Keynes: consumption and current ine ? Irving Fisher: intertemporal choice ? Franco Modigliani: the lifecycle hypothesis ? Milton Friedman: the permanent ine hypothesis ? Robert Hall: the randomwalk hypothesis ? David Laibson: the pull of instant gratification slide 2 CHAPTER 16 Consumption Keynes’s conjectures 1. 0 MPC 1 2. Average propensity to consume (APC ) falls as ine rises. (APC = C/Y ) 3. 收入是消費(fèi)的主要決定因素。 slide 15 CHAPTER 16 Consumption Consumer preferences Marginal rate of substitution (MRS ): 消費(fèi)者愿意用多少單位的 C2 來(lái)替換一個(gè)單位的 C1. C1 C2 IC1 The slope of an indifference curve at any point equals the MRS at that point. 1 MRS slide 16 CHAPTER 16 Consumpt
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