【正文】 ut RMB 1116 sqm per month. From 2021 to 2021, the average rent experienced an annual growth rate of % to RMB per sqm per month. Up to 3Q2021, the rent increased by % to RMB attributed by the strong demand from logistics service stations and Chengdu Aviation Logistics Park. Despite the large supply in future, we conservatively expect that the rent will still increase by 3% yoy, which is driven by the pletion of highquality warehouse facilities, increase of land price, construction cost and the demand from relocation (from East Railway Station), upgrading (for timeefficiency logistics facilities) and newsetup (for highquality logistics facilities). 西南交通大學(xué)與國立南澳大學(xué) MBA 學(xué)位論文 第 VII 頁 From 2021 to 2021, the vacancy rate averaged at 14% but increase to 26% as of 3Q2021. There is no distinct difference between Class A and Class B regarding to the vacancy number. With the pletion of four projects in 4Q09, we expect by end2021, the vacancy rate will soar to 47%. Based on assumption from historical data and demand projection, we estimate the vacancy rate will stay at 20% by end 2021. There are large supplies in the future, which will bring petition and affect the future investment yield of logistic ’s logistics market is still in its infancy and majority existing tenants are cost sensitive. It will take time for them to shift away from warehousing for storage purposes towards other higher value activities. As for the subject project, the high rental will undermine it’s petitiveness given the fact that there will be a number of petitors in Chengdu. In Chengdu Aviation Logistics Park, supportive facilities still lag behind including transportation to downtown, canteen and acmodation, which are expected to be pleted in 23 years. The rental level for the subject project will keep flat from 2021 to 2021, but increase after 2021 when the market bees more mature and the improvement of infrastructure and supportive facilities of the subject area is expected. It will take about 23 years for the subject project to be mostly occupied after its pletion. Key words: Chengdu Aviation Logistics Park, Rental、 Supply、 Vacancy 西南交通大學(xué)與國立南澳大學(xué) MBA 學(xué)位論文 第 VIII 頁 目 錄 第 1章 緒 論 ........................................................................................................................ 1 選題的意義和背景 ................................................................................................... 1 文章結(jié)構(gòu) ................................................................................................................. 2 第 2章 物流倉儲設(shè)施發(fā)展環(huán)境 .............................................................................................. 3 ........................................................................... 3 .................................................................................................... 4 GDP發(fā)展趨勢 ............................................................................................... 4 第一、二、三產(chǎn)業(yè)比重變化趨勢 .................................................................... 5 外商直接投資變化趨勢 .................................................................................. 6 .................................................................................. 6 ........................................................................ 7 ........................................................................ 7 進(jìn)出口額變化趨勢 ......................................................................................... 7 ............................................................................................. 7 ...................................................................................... 9 ........................................................................... 9 ......................................................................... 11 2． 內(nèi)陸出海通道 .................................................................................. 13 ............................................................................. 14 成都市政府物流發(fā)展規(guī)劃及扶持政策分析 ............................................................... 15 規(guī)劃 ....................................................................................... 15 ....................................................................................... 16 .................................................................................... 16 第 3章 項目選址分析及物流倉儲市場分析 .......................................................................... 17 ....................................................................................... 17 物流倉儲設(shè)施供應(yīng)分析 ................................................................................ 17 物流倉儲設(shè)施需求分析 ................................................................................ 21 物流倉儲設(shè)施租金分析 ................................................................................ 24 物流倉儲設(shè)施競爭分析 ................................................................................ 24 物流倉儲設(shè)投資風(fēng)險分析 ............................................................................ 24 第 4章 項目投資方案評價 ................................................................................................. 26 投資方案評價指標(biāo) ................................................................................................. 26 （ NPV） ............................................................................................. 26 （ IRR） ...................................................................................... 27 投資方案評價指標(biāo)分析 .......................................................................................... 28 結(jié) 論 .................................................................................................................................. 31 參考文獻(xiàn) ...............................................................