中國(guó)的fdi國(guó)內(nèi)投資與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)：一個(gè)時(shí)間序列分析外文翻譯-其他專業(yè)-全文預(yù)覽
【正文】 innovation accounting to explore the possible links between FDI, domestic investment and economic growth in China. Specifically, we use the impulse response function and variance deposition plus the Granger causality testing procedures to investigate whether: (1) FDI has a plementary/substitution effect on domestic investment in China。 and (4) FDI contributes to growth more than domestic investment. This paper differs from earlier studies in a number of respects. Firstly, it represents the first attempt to directly test the relationship between FDI and domestic investment in China. Second, we use pure timeseries data while previous studies use either crosssectional or panel data, which are likely to suffer from problems of data parability and heterogeneity. Third, earlier studies do not test for causality between FDI, domestic investment and economic growth. The failure to consider the possible twoway causality between the variables may lead to the simultaneity problem. Finally, our VAR model incorporates 3 longrun dynamics or ECM. Neglecting these dynamics may produce various estimation biases. The anisation of the paper is as follows. Section 2 offers an overview of FDI inflows, domestic investment and economic growth in China. This is followed by econometric analysis in Section 3. The final section of the paper presents the conclusion and some policy implications. 2. AN OVERVIEW OF FDI INFLOWS, DOMESTIC INVESTMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CHINA: 1978–2021 In the early 1980s, special economic zones were formed with preferential policies including tax concessions and special privileges for foreign investors. During the reform period, the Chinese government introduced various new legislative measures to improve investment conditions and the business environment in order to attract FDI. Table 1 presents the ratios of FDI to GDP, DI to GDP, and FDI to DI from 1978 to 2021. As can be seen, the proportions of FDI to GDP (column 2) were quite low and less than 1 per cent until 1990. It increased to a peak value of per cent in 1994 and then steadily decreased to per cent in 2021. The proportion of DI to GDP was per cent in 1978 and increased steadily to per cent in 2021. The proportion of FDI to DI increased dramatically from per cent in 1978 to per cent in 1984, and by 1994 it had reached an alltime high of per cent. Since then, it gradually decreased to per cent in 2021. 4 3. EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS AND FINDINGS a. Data and Unit Root Test Quarterly time series data for FDI, DI and GDP are available and all in current prices of the Chinese currency (yuan). They are piled from China Monthly Statistics(1987:1–2021:3),Comprehensive Statistical Data and Materials for 50 Years of New Chinaand various issues of China Statistical Yearbook. GDP quarterly time series is constructed on the basis of the monthly gross industrial output (GIO) and the yearly GDP statistics due to lack of quarterly and monthly GDP statistics. It is found that the annual growth pattern of GDP is similar to that of GIO. qttqt G IOgG DP , ?? q=1,.......,4 t=1988,1989,........,2021 To minimise the effect of seasonal fluctuations when conducting cointegration analysis and model estimation, a variable of centred (orthogonalised) seasonal dummies is 5 incorporated. The standard 0–1 seasonal dummy variables will affect both the mean and the trend of the level series in a VAR syst
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